btdart20

At least we have a few decent C prospects to kick it off...

Hitters innovated to have more powerful outcomes which tend to be pull-heavy. Defenses followed the data and innovated to match the outcomes by shifting more often to those types of hitters. Now some hitters are just trying to bulldoze through it. And coaches are ok with the sluggers limiting themselves to TTO. "Contact to damage ratio" and all that... Aging hitters that just key of the FB (and have union influence) and want to extend their careers are among this crowd. And "fans" still dig the long ball. The-powers-that-be game doesn't "want" hitters to adjust back... They want more scoring. I'm not against it if it gets more people interested in the game. But to me, it feels like it takes away an interesting piece of the game. (Players hitting into the shift is like a 3rd and 2 in football where the RB just plows into a pile of bodies. Or so my wife says.) It'll be interesting to see the gap in BA from truly great hitters (like Vlad, Trout) and pull-oriented hitters (like Gallo). I bet the gap is more narrow. True. Most of those rules are limit "cherry-picking" points and allow the defense a chance to defend. A notable exception being NBA/no-zone defense which was to boost scoring.

The goal vs. outcome of banning the shift: More hits but worse hitters. More stats but less skill. More runs but worse defense. "Mickey Mantle adjusted."

A healthy Baumler and Kjerstad reinforces the floor and stretches the ceiling of the organization. Stoked for these two getting back on the field!

It looks like he had to wait a bit longer on the pitch but it does kick out a bit more than usual. Quite a few really good/great players have little/no weight on the back foot at the point of contact. And some have a dramatic leg kick too (regarding Termarr).

Wieters broke PECOTA and a deity was born... Adley doesn't have the myth to live up to. If Adley is exactly what Wieters was, I'll be happy but with a nagging feeling of 'what might have been.' Pretty much how I felt with Wieters. Honestly, I'll be the most disappointed if Grayson isn't an All-Star caliber pitcher... There are always impressive stories and players we're drawn to, but it feels like this group of guys has it in spades. This really feels like a special group. Adley's ease and confidence, Grayson's constant improvement focus, Cowser's humility and read of others, Hall's 'stuff', Mayo's EV, Kjerstad's perseverance, Norby's machine-like approach to hitting...

Lies, damn lies, and statistics! The model is only as good as the process of assigning the probability of the outcome. The risk of not transitioning to the MLB well is legit. But whatever, stats will say the same thing about the success rate of the other organizations and their prospects as well. Just keep stacking prospects... and may the odds ever be in our favor!

Get off my lawn! My dream includes Jones not playing more than 1 year in the minors and debuts at age 19. (And us trading for Eury Perez instead of Pablo because I don't trust Pablo's arm health. But that's messing with your dream, so I'll let you have it.)

Yep, but in my dreams it's this: Mountcastle, Norby, Correa, Henderson, Rutschman infield with Jones, Cowser and Kjerstad in the outfield has a certain appeal with Mayo DH'ing.

IF healthy, he gives me the Scherzer vibes. Tons of stuff and just needs to hone his craft. But I'm a sucker for these high risk/high reward type guys!

We're like a bunch of piranhas smelling blood and hope! To even be at the table says a lot to me. I SS is something of a question mark in the minors. We have a few potentials, but none are likely to be a top tier all-around talent. SS could be the only non-pitching position to make a splash with. I'm not a fan of a 10-year deal, but I'm not opposed in this case (agree that an opt out has value here for both sides). He's 27 now. He's great defensively. His power numbers are inflated by Houston's LF Crawford Boxes (315 down the line). The opposite effect will be in play at OPACY going forward. But he's not a dead pull hitter either. Takes a walk and hits it where the ball is pitched. 2023 has Trea Turner (30), Swanson (29), and probably Bogaerts (30) as FA (the rest of team options or not worth it). It's a long-term risk any way you slice it. Swanson has limited upside. Correa is younger and better than Bogaerts. I personally like Trea. But Trea is 3 years older, built like a sprite and swings like Paul Bunyan! My non-professional prognostication is that he's going to blow his back out at some point. Correa is probably the best risk/reward FA target in the group. Agree that the next contending team will not be made up completely of guys we drafted/developed. The quick/expensive way is FA signings. The cost-effective model is being really good at timing trades and knowing our talent. Given that teams just aren't willing to trade Curt Schilling/Steve Finley/Pete Harnish for a Glenn Davis type talent in today's market (sorry to go there, but we need a reality check). As we transition out of the rebuild, we can't get so fixated on 'our guys' that we lose sight of the reason we had to rebuild in the first place. We have to be willing to trade away controllable up-and-coming talent to continually restock to minors. That's the only way small/mid-market teams can maintain a 'competitive window' (without a hard salary cap, haha). We simply can't cover our gaps with more salary (and that's my biggest concern with a significant % of payroll invested in one player). The O's will need to (among other things) a) know our talent to know who to keep, b) read the market to trade high, c) pick/choose who to give contracts to wisely, and d) have a great pulse on targets to trade for.

I'm sure there are various ways to define parity. Defined as a fan hoping for a legit shot at competing and winning a championship, I disagree. The past few (legit) playoffs: 2015 - TOR, NYY, KC, TEX, Hou, NYM, STL, PIT, CHC, LAD - 6 of top 10 media markets (plus Toronto) 2016 - BOS, TB, BAL, CLE, TEX, WAS, NYM, CHC, LAD, SF - 7 of top 10 2017 - BOS, NYY, CLE, MN, Hou, WAS, CHC, LAD, ARZ, COL - 6 of top 10 2018 - BOS, NYY, CLE, Hou, Oak, ATL, MIL, CHC, LAD, COL - 7 of top 10 2019 - NYY, TB, MN, Hou, Oak, ATL, WAS, STL, MIL, LAD - 6 of top 10 2021 - TB, BOS, NYY, CHW, Hou, ATL, MIL, STL, SF, LAD - 7 of top 10 List of television stations in North America by media market - Wikipedia Lots of large market repeats. Lots of small market "one and done" types. A few exceptions like NYM and TB. And most notably, the KC World Series in 2015. The fact that the smaller market teams are even here is a credit to their system and leadership. (And big market teams have adjusted to their game and aren't trading away young talent like they used to either.) Vegas and the odds makers disagree as well. Large markets dominate the top and small markets dominate the longest odds. Yes, exceptions... (Sorry for the various source links, I had trouble finding preseason odds from year to year...) Chalk - Complete list of 2018 MLB win totals and odds for playoffs, division and World Series (espn.com) 2019 World Series odds for every MLB team (247sports.com) 2022 World Series odds: Dodgers, Yankees, Astros among favorites to win Fall Classic next year - DraftKings Nation Funny you happen to use the Brewers, because they have been in the playoffs the last 3 legit playoffs (excluded 2020). Fix the CBT and revenue sharing to better align with actual competitive balance instead of providing a minimum wage that owners pocket. Having a payroll 'floor' is what many suggest as a solution, but I don't think that will play out as we would hope either. No one wants to see Brett Gardner or Jake Arrieta hang on longer than they need to on a fringy/losing team... I'd rather see a AAAA type player fill that void because of the hope for a better tomorrow. (And it would probably mess with the hoped for "competitive window" of small market teams too.) That's why I tend to favor a hard salary cap. Different teams will be differently profitable and that's where owners will disagree. And the MLBPA are hard core against a hard cap. It's tough to really get a read on attendance trends even before 2020. But there are only three teams who have set attendance records since 2015: Dodgers and the Pirates (first playoff push in years) and Royals (World Series). 8 teams since 2010. For perspective on the recency bias of the records, the second oldest date was 1990 (Oakland) and the oldest was 1976 (Cincy). Most of the records were in the 90's-10's range. Major League Baseball attendance records - Wikipedia MLB ratings: 2021 World Series television ratings improve, still long-term concerns for baseball (sportsnaut.com)

It's appropriate that he used Babe Ruth and the list of Yankees as his primary example. The team that buys the most talent tends to rise to the top. To me, the most important part of the mess baseball finds itself in is parity. The current revenue sharing doesn't seem to do that. It gives a "minimum wage" to small-market owners and they can cast off the competition dreams until tomorrow. Until the lack of parity is truly addressed, the game will drift to less and less competition. Or competition in fits and starts in the name of a rebuild. The compensation will work itself out in the long run if there is a competitive hope for the small/mid-market teams. But this strike is completely short term/get mine while I'm in the league focused. What's being addressed now has very little to competition and what fans want. It has everything to do with player compensation (and everything else is a bargaining chip). We're seeing some pretty special talent across the MLB right now. Ohtani, Tatis, Vlad Jr., Mike Trout, Soto, some really good pitchers, match-up specialists, crazy analytic driving training... Such a shame that the business torpedoes the game...

You're right that it influences/frames it to some degree. But you're doing fine. A lot of my guesses have been board line between two tiers. His statcast page is sad. Below MLB average pretty much across the board for his career. His MiLB power numbers were boosted by home park factors. Not sure he has much more in the tank without significant luck. .660-.689

A review of the Kiley McDaniel rankings.

A vlogger review of the Law top 100. The dude is a Met fan. At the end he summarizes saying he's not sure how Law ranks players.

From a fans perspective: I think there needs to be a hard cap as well. But I don't know enough about the small/mid-market revenues. The anecdotal eye test seems to say the small/mid-market teams have to play asymetrical games with the rules for the hope of competing. I don't think a salary floor will genuinely impact the competitive balance. Feels like teams will play games with that too and still punt. But I get the impression baseball is in for a long, turbulent, walk to the woodshed.

I don't see how they have Grayson's ETA as 2023 and Hall's as 2022. A little "disappointed" to see Eury Perez slot in at #67. Was hoping he would be a long shot in any MIA deal... Young kid with a lot of upside. Joey Bart is still on the list... Feels like he's the eternal prospect!

I doubt he's going to stay a 36% K rate guy. But I'm not convinced he can hit savvier MLB pitchers who can change speeds and still maintain middling power. The low end of the .660-.699 tier.

I'm fine with the theory of trading Mancini. We're at the crossroads of the rebuild. His paycheck kinda still makes him part of the old guard vs. the future. He can still be re-signed if he checks the right boxes. Feels like the trades that the Braves made good on last year rebuilding their outfield is the type of market Mancini will have... Only difference is the NL DH, but the Braves were basically positioning themselves for the post-season DH with those trades as well. I'd take Mancini over any of these guys though. Braves Acquire Adam Duvall - MLB Trade Rumors - for prospect Alex Jackson Chicago Cubs trade Joc Pederson to Atlanta Braves for 1B prospect Bryce Ball (espn.com) Braves Acquire Eddie Rosario - MLB Trade Rumors - for Panda Sandoval and cash (Dear baseball gods, please make this not be our future!) Alex Jackson and Bryce Ball blurbs for what they're worth. SportsTalkATL's Full Top 30 Prospects List - SportsTalkATL.com

I love how stable his stats were through the various levels last year! I'm a little worried about his K%. Hoping for a Rhys Hoskins/Kyle Schwarber type player. Lefty bats in OPACY are fun! .770-.799

This is a few years old (and pre-Covid), but the trend was toward college. Under 20% draftees were HS picks. Draft System Has Pushed Teams To Pick More College Players (baseballamerica.com) Of the 41 picks we had in 2019, we took 8 HS players (19.5%). Basically, in line with 'industry averages.' 2020 we took 2 HS players in our 6 picks. 33%. 2021 we only took 1 HS player of 21 picks. Less than 5%. (115 HS players drafted of the 612 total = 18+%.) 2021 MLB Draft Break Down – The JBB - (If this can be trusted... but I wasn't about to go round by round.) So, this makes us question his HS focus response. He's obviously proud of the success and success rate of the HS guys we have drafted. Either 2021 he drafted college players for MLB competitive window timing or college players because he thought other teams were over-valuing the HS players. When Elias (or any GM) does these types of interviews, it's a cat/mouse game. He's probably talking about broad trends in the industry as things the O's are also looking at.

I've been a lurker for years. Orioles Hangout has always been my go-to spot for anything Oriole related. Just in the past couple of weeks have I started posting (meaningfully at least). I'm stoked about the direction the O's are heading. A significant part of my excitement is from the information you provide. The national writers have too many competing priorities: clicks, echo chamber, justify the expense... And the "kids" (as SG framed them ) are influenced by that to a degree as well. OH has a purity about it. There's a love beyond the metrics. And it starts with you, Tony.

This is a fair expectation. No reason to expect a top tier prospect in return. Mancini's salary is the big issue. If we would pay a significant chunk of his salary, then the return should open up a bit. Given our 2022 payroll, I would hope this is on the table. However, it is odd seeing the potential NL DH-type market start to develop. Like the Padres signing Nomar Mazara, the Brewers signing Eric Thames, Cards thinking DeJong is their answer. Other than salary, Mancini and other trade candidates on other teams are upgrades over those.

yikes... When do we start projecting WHIP (or whatever) for the pitchers?