btdart20

Agree with both. But that wasn't my point.

Luis Roberts with better plate discipline and much better defense/throwing. Lee - 65 hit, 55 power, 50 speed - .290/20 HR above average OPS and average SB/OAA at a corner. Jones - 55 hit, 60 power, 70 speed - .270+/25HR plus OPS (doubles/triples), plus plus steals (depending on management), plus+ OAA up the middle. ** The piece that I struggle with is how can you project a string bean like Jones who already has great pop? Feels like a little more muscle and that power number could really be another level. But I'm just a dude behind a keyboard... Scouting Explained: The 20-80 Scouting Scale | FanGraphs Baseball

Are we playing 'Price is Right' rules with this? If so, we all bust so far. Otherwise, @leftygroveis in the early lead.

I agree with you that this is the year to go for the high ceiling. I think the O's should go with Jones as the highest floor and highest probability of hitting a high ceiling. There's a case to be made going Green with what seems to be a lower probability of hitting an even higher ceiling though. But I can actually see a case for drafting an SS since we're still in the hunt for one. It's just not one I agree with. I hope/think they take an arm or two in the first 5 picks. If the college bats are meh and the HS picks are taken, then it makes sense to me if an otherwise first round talent falls. We've taken an injured arm before with Baumler, so it's not like Elias is philosophically opposed. Some of those arms going back to college, so they don't have as much leverage to fight the 'under-slot' contract negotiations either. (Interesting that you bring up Kumar, but his plight is fresh in agent minds.)

I'm choosing to hope in a better season! Yes, there are still the rotation concerns, and the bullpen is still a bit of an X factor. But there are also more upside potentials than last year too. Those losing spells last year were directly related to bad pitching and a tapped pen. The same thing could happen this year for sure. For 2021, Means' no-no on 5/5/21 (and subsequent concerns about his arm) is the line of demarcation in my mind (to incorporate the team psychological aspect from another thread). Last year Means was solid (and very lucky) through his no-hitter on 5/5/21. 7 starts, 1.37 ERA, 3.06 FIP, .135 Babip against. After the no-no: 19 starts, 4.65 ERA, 5.33 FIP, .269 Babip against. And we knew the rest of the staff was duct-taped together. Team ERA thru 5/5: 3.98 Team ERA post 5/5: 6.29 Team ERA for 5/11-5/31: 6.79 6/9-6/24 ERA: 7.58 8/3-8/24 ERA: 8.50 Small sample but reference the Fangraphs article for some underlying legitimacy in the numbers too. Team ERA (3.88) is pretty close to FIP (4.00). Without Watkins' (2.55 ERA/5.19 FIP), those numbers would probably be much more in line (or even flip the ratio to show slightly unlucky?). I wish I had team ERA/FIP numbers for those windows in 2021, but I can't find them. There are at least some decent factors that (maybe) we haven't quite out punted our 10-16 coverage.

It's fair to move him down. He has struggled. A few of our guys have struggled and a few have done really well so far this season. It happens every year. Cowser's OBP is still a very respectable .370 this year (Sally League average is .338). The floor is still solid since he knows the strike zone and has good speed. He's 22 which is league average. He's a first rounder, so we're expecting more (rightfully). To reach his upside, he has to maintain the bat control (his strength historically) while adding a little power. He has not done either really well in the short sample so far. Based on his interviews, he sounds like a grounded/mature young man. If anyone has the mental fortitude, it's a guy like him. It's just connecting the mental with the physical at this point (easier said than done). My take: It does seem like he's changing his approach. Significantly less Oppo% even against higher level pitching this year. Combine that with the GB/FB ratios, I bet he's trying to tap into some power and is rolling over and swinging through the better off-speed and breaking-balls this year.

Still early, but his splits are rough. 2022 day/night - Day: .063/.111/.063 (.174 OPS) Night: .292/.361/.646 (1.007 OPS) But Low-A was similar in 2021 - Day: .000/.167/.000 (.167 OPS) Night: .344/.442/.604 (1.046 OPS) 2022 righty/lefty splits are a work in progress too - vs. Lefty: .167/.211/.222 (.433 OPS) vs. Righty: .270/.338/.619 (.957 OPS) Low A in 2021 - vs Lefty: .250/.429/.313 (.742 OPS) vs Righty: .322/.413/.589 (1.002 OPS)

That's fair. Final contract value should be the defining measurable. Perceptions are more slippery than measurables though. Especially when I am/we are "obviously" better GMs than anyone else in charge!

4/8 to 4/19: .306/.444/.694 (1.139 OPS) and a .292 babip. 8 Ks and 9 BBs over 45 PA. 4/20 to 5/3: .104/.157/.208 (.365 OPS) and a .133 babip. 17 Ks and 3 BBs over 51 PA. His HR LA wasn't the only thing high heading into 4/20. His blazing start went up in smoke!

I think a pick of Lee would be viewed as an 'under-slot' pick. That might not actually be true, but, personally, that's how I would view it. At least one mock I've seen with Lee instead of Jones going to Baltimore at 1.1 has been framed within the perceived Elias/Baltimore under-slot strategy. On the flip-side, there's no telling how many of those mocking Jones @ 1.1 are 'going chalk' either.

Agree that this is the most likely scenario.

Cherry-picking window here, but 5 K's in his last two games. Seems like after hitting a few absolute bombs, he's selling out for power. On the year he has a 26% K rate and 8% BB rate. Does anyone know where to see if he's swinging outside the strike zone? Watching strike 3? Just swinging through pitches?

That's my point. Not only has he physically matured, but his hitting approach has matured as well. It's been undercover for a few weeks as a 'slow start', but it's starting to hit the bottom-line stats. With the IF issues in Baltimore, I would love to see him fast-tracked and in Baltimore before the end of August (would love to see it by AS break). But in Baltimore he would be locked into 3B for the rest of the season, and I think they want him getting fairly consistent SS reps. Gunnar's LH bat >>> Odor's LH bat today.

Norby is a hitter. He didn’t get cheated out of any ABs last night. He was good with my kids before the game too. He’s got a few fans in my household rooting for him!

Was at last night’s game. Rutsch is a man among boys. Both physically and skill set hitting. Much faster than I would have thought. Got a good jump on a ball in the dirt and easily took 2b. Mick Abel started for JS. Top SP in the Philly org.

At the game last night and Burns played SS. Don’t recall his final line but he made loud outs.

I started drafting nearly these exact thoughts yesterday. Gutierrez needs more PAs. Mateo is about what we're seeing. Odor should be gone (it's a shame he's taking PAs from Gutierrez). I had included Owings in the mix too, but not many PAs and not good so far. OBP isn't getting it done for these guys either. I'd be happy if these guys just go on base. Mateo - .294 Urias - .254 Gutz - .258 Mounty, Trey, and the sluggers need to get the SLG going too. Woof so far...

Right, as long as it adds up to the total cap. Of the top 30 picks in the 2015 draft, only 8 have a > 2 career WAR (Swanson:9.1, Bregman:26.6, Tucker:8.1, Benintendi:13.1, Happ:7.5, Stephenson:2.5, Buehler:13.1, Soroka:6.2). There are 8 in the 0-2 career WAR range (including D.J. Stewart). I would count this tier as a miss. There are 14 <= 0 career WAR. 8 out of 30 are difference makers of some sort. For context - none of the guys I pulled out above (Luzardo, McKenzie, Melendez) have a +2 career WAR. About 25% of that first round were difference makers (including 2 guys who signed significantly underslot). Major League Draft WARs: An Analysis of Wins Above Replacement in Player Selection - IOS Press This study is pretty interesting. After the second round, there really isn't much of a difference in career WAR for those who make it to the bigs. So, taking a stab at getting a future 1st/2nd rounder 1-4 years early is the gamble. Enticing a top 50 guy in the 5th round to bypass college is better than drafting the 150th ranked guy. If you're still able to get 2 top 50 guys in round 1 and 2, then you've got one more dice roll at the table that the next team. 10% after pick 50 doesn't sound so bad in that context IMO. All of that said, it's likely that the make-up of talent pool and quality of your scout rankings is important than the strategy. In Ozzie/DeCosta we trust has been the Raven-fan mantra for years. Hoping we can get to that level of execution/trust with the O's brain-trust too.

Well, at least they are kicking all the right tires!

The data is certainly tough to dig through. Lots of moving pieces as well. Of the 11 over-slot guys you have listed in 2017, 9 were drafted from HS. It's a gamble, for sure. But I look at it like getting into a private company before it IPOs. There's no guarantee either way, but it's a way of using one years draft to get ahead of a player's college uptrend. There are at least 3 guys on the path to be difference makers out of the 32 names you have listed (Luzardo, McKenzie, Melendez). Guess it depends on where the teams went under-slot to be able to pay these 32 players to compare hit rates. Luzardo - #94 (Was had no 1st, took Carter Kieboom and Dane Dunning @ #28/29, Sheldon Neuse @ #58 - all have played in the MLB) McKenzie - #42 (in 2015 Cle took Brady Aiken at 1.17 - In 2014 Aiken was drafted 1.1 by Houston. Ranked #1 by Keith Law in 2014 and drafted by Houston while Elias was there. Houston offered him $1.5m below slot. Ultimately, Aiken didn't sign and it removed the draft slot money from the rest of their pool of money. Meaning, the over-slot guy couldn't sign either. He had TJ surgery before the 2015 draft and must not have returned to form because his MiLB numbers weren't good. Cleveland knew about the TJ surgery and still took the gamble.) Melendez - #52 (KC took Nick Pratto at 1.14 - both still considered top prospects). A 10% shot at a difference maker and still have a 3/5 hit rate on the other picks. And the 4th/Pratto looking like he'll soon be a hit.

Love the buy-in and partnership. Many guys in the org seem to have really made an attempt to apply this approach.

Yes. I'm generalizing here, but last year it was almost like his talent just was better. That type of gap happens in A ball. This year it like he's added a more mental approach to hitting in addition to his talent. The talent gap in AA ball is typically narrower. That's probably true. I get caught up in the SS glitter and the dream of a Gunnar/Mayo left side of the IF. Gunnar kind of reminds me of lefty Nomar Garciaparra (minus the pre-ab ritural).

Completely agreed. The difference between his BA (.224) and XBA (.318) is nearly 100 points. Usually, the difference is 50 points or less. The hits will come.

I wonder if/how the Apple deal cannibalizes other revenue streams (MLB Network, cable...). It'll also be interesting from an Apple perspective due to the tracking limitations and lower ad revenues for Apple. MLB still has pricing power (monopoly for baseball talent), so the margins for the various revenue outlets will tighten. Today's economy is weird in general anyway, and more so for entertainment.

Yeah, I kinda agree. And he never got surgery to clean up whatever it was the Mets saw. But the Mets medical track-record isn't exactly sterling either. I hope they take an arm or more with those top 5 picks. And I wouldn't be against taking him as a comp pick.