jamalshw

Yeah, that would be a tough pill to swallow considering Fabian is the only result of consequence from that trade and really struggled to make contact in Bowie this year. I'd also prefer a RHP in the bullpen spot than a southpaw given Coulombe, Perez and Hall are already slotted for the pen. He'd obviously cost way more given the extra years and longer track record of dominance, but I wonder what the Pirates would want for Bednar. It would be a huge package for sure, but he'd replace Bautista well and then imagine 2025 with Cano, Bautista and Bednar in the back-end. (Now, I'll wake up and go back to reality where we end up signing a random midlevel reliever that underperforms in a repeat of Givens from last year).

The Oriole is definitely Webb, who should definitely be tendered a contract. There's a sour taste in our mouth about him given homeruns in the ALDS, but he's s serviceable reliever who the Orioles overworked down the stretch. That said, he's clearly the third best of the three options. I think the pen should clearly be Cano, Coulombe, Perez, Hall, Wells, and Webb. The last two spots are up in the air. Ideally they add someone in free agency to close or at least set up. That leaves the last spot as a competition with Baumann a likely option--though could easily be Irvin if the Orioles add the SP we all want.

I would be ecstatic if the Orioles signed one SP and one RP amongst the group referenced. There's a case to be made that they should sign 2 SP, but to me, in that case, it should be someone like Gray or E-Rod and then someone on a minor league deal that could be stashed in AAA (maybe with a June opt out) to provide depth and allow Povich and McDermott a couple months before they're the "next man up".

I agree that if Mateo is viewed by anyone as a starting infielder, you need to make that trade. I'll go a step further and say if anyone is willing to trade anything of value, you make that trade. I'm not opposed to Mateo on the bench next year as a PR and potentially getting the occasional start against a LHP, but I also view him as a non-tender candidate so might as well get something before that deadline. As to the bigger topic of trade talks starting early, I wonder if that could yield a Bieber trade sooner rather than later which, of course, impacts the SP free agent market as well. I do think he gets moved by Cleveland based on the amount of discussion, as where there is smoke there is fire. And if that's the case, whether to the Orioles or elsewhere, it would impact the Orioles. Lastly, given Bellinger is the non-Ohtani cream of the crop in the offense market that is quite telling. I'd stay away from him as far as possible (and that's not just because the Orioles' need is pitching, not offense). His 2023 was awesome and so was his first three years in the league, but 2021 and 2022 were god awful. The highs and upside are huge, but the lows are so low that the risk just isn't worth it based on the contract projections.

I'm not sure where I said that at all. I said I'd rather just use the in house group (which is also inclusive of Hall and Wells--as the alternative would be adding more bullpen and pushing them to the rotation) than the names brought up by the OP. My post wasn't quoting any others so it was in response to the OP and in relation to Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and the like. I do think Cease and Giolito fall in a class above that. I would prefer Gray or E-Rod over either (unless Cease comes WAY cheaper than I expect). I also said I could be talked into Wacha who I didn't want as Plan A, B, or C. I think the Cease/Giolito class would fall into the Plan B/C territory.

For the projected numbers, I would take either Gray or E-Rod in a heartbeat.

I voted NO. I think there are better options out there that could be had. Cease has way better stuff than Gibson, but I'm not convinced he's that much of an upgrade. If the Orioles are sure they can do something to improve his command, then I could potentially be talked into that trade, but on the surface the walk rate scares me. He's got swing and miss stuff The walks are just too much. His epic 2022 was built largely on the 6.2 H:9 he had which is not sustainable. Would I want him on my team? Yes. But I don't know if that price is worth it to me given the command concerns.

I really, really hope that the Orioles do better than those names. I'm not sure I would consider any of them an upgrade on what we have and I don't know that just adding depth is a real need with Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer, Irvin, Wells, Hall, McDermott, Povich, etc. I might be able to be convinced that Wacha is an upgrade, but I don't want him as a Plan A, B or C. Those that are pinning for Nola or Snell are shooting too high (though with someone other than the Angelos family owning the team it shouldn't be shooting too high), but I do think the team could/should land someone like Gray or E-Rod. I know Gray is a Cy Young finalist, but his age does limit the number of years he gets and I don't see the Orioles going long enough for Nola. Gray is a reach, of course, but at least less so. Admittedly, I was disappointed with Gibson as the main guy last year. I'll be even more disappointed if we end up with someone in that ilk again as the headliner of our offseason.

The great thing about these stacked lineups is that there are some differences in them so there are options. As you pointed out with Mayo, Kjerstad and Basallo for a middle of the order masher is, even if we just go 1-for-3 in that trio, that still gives us a great 1-4 in the order with Holliday, Adley, Henderson and one of those three. You can then fill in the last five spots with some combination the other two along with: Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Cowser, Beavers, Bradfield, Horvath, and maybe even Rhodes, Willems, Wagner, Bencosme, and so many others that would be talked about much more if our system wasn't so stacked. Honestly, I find it hard to not build a rather stacked lineup completely internally even banking on half our guys not developing as hoped. Of course, given the needs on the pitching side, we need to hope more on the likes of McDermott, Povich, Johnson, etc. and that our front office is able to rightly identify which position prospects to keep and which to trade for pitching when necessary.

The way I see it, you have Bradish, Means, Grayson and Kremer in the rotation. You have Wells and Hall in the pen along with Irvin and you bring in a starter. I'd love it to be Gray or E-Rod, but I've learned to expect to be disappointed. In any case, they need to add a guy to slide in with Bradish at the top to allow Grayson to continue to grow and Means to not have to be his pre-injury self right away. Wells and Hall both still have options which is important for depth as either could be sent back to Triple-A to get stretched out in case of an injury. Irvin is the bulk guy in the pen for me. Have him piggy back Means or Grayson every once in a while to give them each a chance for a planned shorter start here and there to control innings. He's another depth option. That puts them 8 deep in the Majors before you even get to Johnson, Povich and McDermott each of which then becomes option 9 through 11. If Hall and Wells are lockdown in the pen and one or more of the aforementioned trio really dominates, the order shifts a bit as the season progresses. I don't think the rotation needs much. Bradish is great. Grayson would be a fantastic #3 with his upside but likely still some growing pains here and there. Means as the #4 would be awesome and Kremer in the fifth spot is a good place. We just need a strong #2.

This is really tough, but here's my guess. 1. Jackson Holliday 2B - I guessed 2B, but could be SS. I think he's the real deal and thus will be in the top half of the order. He's not a massive thumper type and has speed so first makes sense, but ultimately could see him in any of the top 3 spots. 2. Adley Rutschman C - I know some have bumped him down and his offense wasn't quite what we hoped, but his OBP is still so strong that I want him near the top. 3. Gunnar Henderson SS - If he builds off this year (particularly June onward), he's probably the best hitter on the team in 2024 and I'll take that to continue in 2026 4. Coby Mayo 1B - He's probably the biggest power bat in the system. I don't think he can stay at 3B, but I do believe in the bat and a switch to 1B probably goes well. I don't know that Mountcastle is gone by 2026, but Mayo has to play somewhere and I think we have an idea what Mountcastle is, and Mayo's upside is higher. 5. Heston Kjerstad RF - I'm a big believer in Kjerstad's bat. I think the could be the thumper in the middle of the order. I toyed with him batting 4, but ultimately went 5 to add some R/L balance. 6. Jordan Westburg 3B - Ultimately, Westburg may be a spot or two lower, but this is another R/L situation. 7. Samuel Basallo C/DH - I think Basallo spends most of the year in AA in 2024 with a taste of AAA and then starts 2025 in AAA before making his debut later that summer. Ideally, he and Adley platoon at C and DH with both ultimately starting 150 games and staying fresh. That then leaves the backup catcher (or third catcher) to not play much at all. That may prove tricky to find a player to take the role, but we saw the team's love of having a random third catcher at times this year. 8. Colton Cowser LF - Cowser has some experience in CF which helps with the large LF. Maybe he hits higher, but it's hard to justify with the upside of the players ahead of him. I think what we saw from him in the Majors this year was a blip on the screen and he'll develop into at least a solid regular. 9 Enrique Bradfield CF - This is the one I feel worst about. He had a good debut season (lets ignore the handful of games in Aberdeen). I think we may see a bit of a struggle in Aberdeen this year as we've seen with several prospects there. But he makes it to AA in the second half and spends 2025 split between Bowie and Norfolk. I could see him still in the minors to start 2026 with a mid year call up. In that case, maybe Cowser gets CF if he can prove it and Mountcastle is added in the lineup to give another RHH since only Mayo, Westburg and the switch hitting Rutschman hit from the right-side, making the team vulnerable to LHP. In that case, Mayo is tried in the OF. OR...I could see Norby in the OF. In either case, though the defense takes a hit.

This is very interesting to see. I almost wish there was a poll. It's also interesting how some prioritize one thing with one matchup and the opposite with the other. For me: 1. Kjerstad or Cowser - I'm taking Kjerstad because of the bat and the glimpse we say in the Majors. I think Cowser may have the higher upside as an overall player, but Kjerstad's bat is just too interesting. 2. Westburg or Ortiz - Westburg. While Ortiz is an actual SS and Westburg isn't, he looked good defensively at 2B (though my gauge of that may be off having watch so much of Frazier last year), and we don't need him at SS with Henderson and Holliday. 3. McDermott or Povich - This is probably the closest one to me. It's almost a toss up. I might take Povich solely because he's a lefty and would benefit more from the LF wall. 4. Hays or Santander - This is almost the older version of the first question...and I'm taking Santander for the same reason. I like the bat. Yes, we need defense for the deep LF wall. But I'm taking these almost in a vacuum. I'm not assuming because I took Kjerstad in 1 that Cowser is out of the organization. And if they team did move Hays, I may change my answer to 1. 5. Mayo or Basallo - Basallo because of the catching. If the minors weren't stacked with offensive talent, I'd probably switch to Mayo since he's closer and thus a bit more of a sure thing, but as it stands, Basallo has more positional flexibility. This is probably the second closest one after McDermott/Povich. 6. Mateo or Urias - Since I can't say neither (not that I don't like both), I'm saying Mateo. With Holliday, Henderson and Westburg (along with Ortiz and Norby) it's hard to envision either of them getting that much playing time in 2024. With that, I like Mateo's skill set better on the bench. The speed and strength against LHP gives him a niche that may prove useful. While Urias is the better bat overall, I don't know that you'd find much of a use for him. Mateo can at least pinch run or get a spot start here or there against a LHP if the Orioles want to protect him against tough LHPs early in the season (like they did for Henderson).

As others have said, it all depends on the rookie. If we are still counting Westburg, he had a .715 OPS which was better than Frazier and his defense was also far superior. So that replacement of vet to rookie should be a net positive rather than negative. For Urias and Mateo, I don't think the bar is all that high either...and Holliday should be able to clear it. As for the OF, that's a bit more of a challenge. We saw Cowser struggle so there would likely be a bigger adjustment period there and Hays was a 2.6 WAR player. Mullins had a down year and Santander isn't as good defensively, but the both produced more WAR than Hays. Expecting Cowser to jump in and give over 2 WAR is probably a stretch for an expectation in year one, though it's certainly possible. Same with Kjerstad. What I would like to see is an infield of Mountcastle, Holliday, Henderson and Westburg. And an OF/DH situation of: Hays, Mullins, Santander and Kjerstad. That gives you two rookies starting (3 if you count Westburg). I wouldn't have an issue if they non-tendered Mateo or moved Urias and had Ortiz also on the roster in a utility role either.

Given the ballpark and the LF wall, I'd love to add another LHP to the rotation. Blake Snell is the cream of the crop there and while I think that would be a perfect addition, I'm not delusional enough to believe the Orioles would pony up enough. Jordan Montgomery is a bit more possible, but probably also out of range, leaving E-Rod as the best "realistic" option. Shota Imanaga is an interesting option, but not sure he fits into the team's more risk-adverse mindset. Abandoning the LHPs and looking at RHP, Gray is the best of the options there in my mind given the shorter contract as a result of his age. Of course, the AAV will be up there. Overall, I want to avoid the lower end of the pool and would probably prefer Wells/Hall in the 5th spot in the rotation and more focus on the bullpen to a return of Gibson or another signing on that scale.

I think there is a current surplus, but I don't know that it's significant enough to make any major moves. I don't know that any of the young guys and outproduce the veterans in 2024, but at the same time, we need to make room in at least one spot for Kjerstad to get consistent ABs. That could be by moving on from O'Hearns and not resigning Hicks...OR it could be by moving on from ONE of the three. I'm open to a trade of one for a SP in a Bieber type trade. But I do agree to a point that Hays, Mullins and Santander look like the guys for 2024, but not much further beyond than that. I think it also would make more sense to sprinkle the youngsters in over time than all at once. Give Kjerstad RF most of the time with some time at DH and maybe 1B and see what happens. Cowser becomes the next man up for injury and--given the nature of the sport--likely sees some consistent playing time at least for some stretch in the year and hopefully shows better than he did in the big leagues in 2023 and he becomes a guy that can be plugged in when one or more of the aforementioned veterans are gone after 2024. Long story short, I don't think there is as much a surplus in the OF as the infield, but I do think there's at least a bit of surplus, not enough to necessitate a trade, but also not to the point that a trade has to be ruled out. If one of these guys can be the main piece in acquiring a SP, I'm for moving one.

Seems to be the typical early offseason waiver claim that Elias and company will try and pass through themselves in a week or so.

I voted Holliday, but it could really be him or Kjerstad as both should be on the Opening Day roster. Cowser, Mayo, Ortiz, and Norby could all see significant time, too, depending on the offseason and if any of them become trade bait. McDermott and Povich meanwhile are likely our two biggest insurance plans for the rotation--at least in the minors--behind Wells, Irvin and Hall who I expect to all be in the bullpen (barring injury). It's also easy to sleep on Stowers, but he's a guy that we would still all be clamoring for just a few years ago. The fact that Frobby could make this poll and go nine deep with realistic (even if a few are a bit of a stretch) options is just mindboggling.

To me, Heim is much like Mike Yastrzemski. He's not one I lose sleep over getting away. He's one that I can't blame the Orioles for "getting away." Heim was not hitting that well in Frederick before the trade in 2016, then went to the Rays, then the A's, then Texas. He wasn't good in a cup of coffee in 2020. He wasn't good in 2021. He was great the first half last year, but tanked in the second half. He had a similar falling off this year (though his first half was better and the collapse not as bad). He's had some nice ABs this postseason and I would certainly take him on the team now, but I can't blame the Orioles for letting him go. It didn't seem like he was going to be much when they moved him and the Rays and A's obviously agreed. He's the diamond in the rough find for the Rangers. Good for them. They got the most out of him. The Orioles have similar guys. Santander as a Rule-5 pick. Ryan O'Hearn as a scrap heap pick up this year. Aaron Hicks. Even Ramon Urias. Heck, Kyle Bradish was a steal in the Dylan Bundy trade...and not someone the Angels thought had any chance of becoming what he's become.

A lot broke right for the Orioles in 2023, but there's also reason to expect improvement in a number of places internally without moves. I'm a huge advocate for another SP (Gray is my pick, but there are other options) and another bullpen arm (or better yet, two), but outside of that, I don't know that the Orioles NEED any other major moves. Offensively, yes there was some luck and they overachieved their Pythag W-L by 7 wins. BUT, I do expect internal improvement. Henderson had a huge year and is the expected ROY, but I do think there is even more there particularly if he can avoid the early season adjustment period. I think it's fair to expect more from the infield if Urias, Frazier and Mateo's ABs are replaced with Holliday, Westburg and Ortiz--and maybe Mayo as well depending on your thoughts on his defense at 3B. Adley and Santander have offered consistent production the last two years so I don't expect regression there. What O'Hearn and Hicks provided was huge and that will regress, but I don't think they resign Hicks and am an advocate to move on from O'Hearn in favor or Kjerstad and Mayo. The young guys will have some growing pains, of course, but there's enough quantity there as well as quality. I wouldn't turn down a BIG bat in the order, but it would truly have to be a VERY BIG bat and I just don't see the Orioles making the kind of move for the kind of player that moves the needle on offense. The need to me is much easier to move on the pitching side.

Well still has an option next year, right? If so, I think he can factor in as both bullpen and rotation depth. For me, he starts in the pen, but if players go down and a SP is needed, he can go down to AAA for a week or two to get stretched out and then come back up in the rotation. (Or be stretched out in the majors though that would strain the pen for a couple outings). He may also be needed to sporadically start to give Means a blow as I don't expect him to be able to go beyond 120ish innings next year. I'd have Hall and Wells in the pen. Irvin as the long-man and #6 starter as needed. Bradish, Grayson, Means and Kremer are 4/5 of the rotation. You just need one more and I HOPE it's someone with higher upside than Gibson. I served his purpose and was a solid innings eater, but I'm looking for more now in 2024. I'd really like to see the Orioles add a SP at or near the top of the rotation and 2 strong bullpen arms. I also wouldn't mind a depth sign of a veteran SP to a minor league deal with an opt out somewhere in the June timeline. I'm not all that confident in any minor leaguer being ready if there's an injury at the start of the year, but a few months in buys a bit more time.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mateo non-tendered. He was given a pay increase last year on the heels of being a 3 WAR player. I imagine he won't get much of a bump off this year, but not sure he's kept with the infielders we have in the minors (namely Ortiz and Holliday).

If not before then, McGregor should throw out the first pitch of the World Series if the Orioles make it. He was on the mound when the finished the last one, it would be poetic for him to throw out the first pitch 40 years later.

I don't think it's determined yet. But there's a part of me that would love to see him come back for the ALCS (I'm going to Game 1 if they get there) and would love to see the place go crazy when his introduction happens and he successfully closes out the game for the win. That would be an epic moment. That said, I do think this team NEEDS him to go all the way. But I do think they can get through the ALDS without him given the rest they'll have. It's hard to expect someone to come out and dominate fresh off injury though. Still, it would be a great story.

Scott McGregor to Rick Dempsey.

I’m only engaging in this because it’s an off day today—but still more interested in what the ALDS roster looks like. That said, I think we see some non-tenders this offseason and between that and free agents, we see: Mateo (non-tendered), Gibson, Frazier, Hicks and Flaherty all go elsewhere. I think the offense will be: C- Adley 1B- Mountcastle 2B- Westburg SS- Holliday 3B- Henderson LF- Hays CF- Mullins RF- Santander DH- O’Hearn As for the bench, that’s a bit tricky. I think Urias and McCann are slotted for sure. After that, I could see Kjerstad staying with the club and being a DH/OF and O’Hearn rotating into 1B and into some DH and OF time. The last spot is hard. It could be someone like Cowser, but there will already be a ton of rotating players and I’m not sure there are enough ABs. It could be McKenna who is a good option for defense and as a PR—and I’m less concerned about playing time for him. I put Holliday at SS, but he could start in AAA for a couple months in which case, you have Gunnar at SS and Urias at 3B and Ortiz up in the Majors. As for pitching: SP – Bradish, Grayson, Kremer, Means and Wells RP- Hall (I think he’ll be stretched out in spring, but ultimately remains as a reliever), Cano, Perez, Coulombe, Webb, Baker, Tate, and Baumann. The roster I made was just from internal players. I do think they add a free agent or two and that comes on the mound and probably in the pen. Maybe a couple options there. I could see them adding another infielder with a left-handed bat given what I outlined above was all RH in the infield (save for O’Hearn) and Urias is another RHH option. In that event, though, they’d almost have to move Urias in place of the lefty hitter.