jamalshw

I do think Hays eventually loses ABs to Kjerstad and/or Cowser. And he's been a much better first half player than second half player in his career and that was exaggerated last year when he was an All-Star but had a .667 OPS in the second half after a .853 OPS in the first half. All that said, Hays is an everyday player while Mateo is not. But both could/should have a place on this roster if nothing else because they're right-handed and can hit lefties. This team is heavily left-handed by design given the wall, but that makes the Orioles susceptible to lefties and while we do have switch hitters in Adley and Santander and we do have guys that hit from the left side and need to be in the lineup regardless of who is on the mound, i do worry we are getting a bit too lefthanded. Right now, Hays, Mountcastle and Westburg are the guys we expect in the everyday lineup that hit from the right-side. If we pull Hays out in favor of Cowser, that makes it 2 RHH and two switch hitters to go with 5 exclusively from the left side. All that said, I do expect Hays to lose some ABs and am fine with him getting closer to 400 ABs compared to the 500 (or close) he's had the last 3 years. Those extra 100-150 plate appearances can go to Cowser or Kjerstad and that may help prevent or minimize his last season swoon. Hays to me, though, is still more than a bench player or a weak side platoon player. I think in the end, between a bit more time off for Hays, the unavoidable injuries that will undoubtedly hit, and the likely regression from O'Hearns. I expect we will be able to find enough ABs for Cowser and Kjerstad this year. And perhaps the duo (alongside the right-handed hitting Mayo) replace Santander, Hays and O'Hearn before this time next year.

I voted for extending a young player. But second to that for me would be adding another bullpen arm. We're counting on Tate returning to 2022 form after missing a season which is a gamble. Even assuming he's at least close to his 2022 form, the pen has Kimbrel, Cano, Tate and Wells from the right side with Perez, Coulombe, and probably Irvin from the left. That leaves an opening. Perhaps Webb or Baumann take the spot. Or one of the guys with an option like Akin, Baker, Vespi, Zimmermann, Suarez and Heasley. That said, I would love it if we added one more arm in the pen though the free agent market is a bit picked over.

This is were I sit on it. I probably would've given up more...but given the considerations you called out, I don't think it would've been much more. A lottery ticket type, back end of the top-30 type throw in or two probably would've still been okay, but not much beyond that.

Exactly. It's a bit different extending Holliday who has family wealth and got a No.1 draft pick bonus vs. the Tigers extension of Colt Keith who was a 5th rounder and doesn't have Matt Holliday as a father.

I think it's an interesting conversation regarding Adley vs. Henderson. Thankfully we have both. I think Adley is the heart and soul of the current Orioles' team--and current face of the franchise (over Henderson), but I view Henderson has the player I want to extent between the two of them if I can only extend one (I want to see both extended). And it does have to do with age and position...and the physical toll catching takes over time.

Having not even looked into or considered the service time differences as some others have and outlined before my comment, it's a no from me. While talent wise, it may actually be pretty close and given our surplus of young talent, it may actually make sense on some level, it's a pretty easy no from me. There's obviously the risk factor here with pitcher vs position player, but there's also something about a guy that was drafted (and not at the top of the 1st round) and developed internally going on to have an elite career with your organization. I think Henderson has already bonded with the fanbase. And while a 1 team career is highly unlikely in today's game, having a guy at least spend the first part of his career in an Orioles uniform is huge. If I am guaranteed that Henderson is gone in 5 more years and we won't extend him before that or try to re-sign him in Free Agency...it may sway me a bit as the question narrows to just the next handful of seasons in which case maybe a George Kirby or Spencer Strider is more valuable. It also narrows the risk as the longer the time period, the higher the risk. In that situation with, that guarantee, I wouldn't hate this type of trade, but even still, though, I'm keeping Henderson. He proved himself last year. While we all view Holliday as a sure thing and have high expectations for Westburg and Ortiz and Mayo (if he stays on the dirt) and even Norby to an extent...they're all still prospects and some will disappoint (that's the nature of prospects and why Elias continues to play the numbers game with them). And while Kirby or Strider would slide in the top of the rotation and make the rotation instantly MUCH better, I'd still rather Henderson in my lineup and a rotation of Bradish, Grayson, Means, Kremer and Wells/Irvin/Hall than the alternative.

That really depends. If they still win 95 games, that's great for the regular season, but how are they positioned for the playoffs. Obviously, the playoffs are always some level of a crapshoot, but you can stack the deck in your favor. If all that happens, but the Orioles add a top starter and a lockdown bullpen piece at the deadline with some of the prospect surplus, it really doesn't matter. If all that happens, they basically stand pat or make minor tweaks at the deadline and go into the playoffs with Mateo and Urias and company getting most of the starts and the prospects lounging in AAA, I do think it's a bit of an issue. Honestly, if the Orioles make the postseason and are out in 3 games again, I will be disappointed in the 2024 season whereas, the 2023 season was a huge success.

I'm not disputing that he's a very good player though I think it's a stretch to expect the same level of "improvement" in 2024 that he showed from 2022 to 2023. I also put "improvement" in quotes given the difference in the offensive environment in those two years and given his OPS+ went from 120 to 121...basically staying the same. He's a hitter that's 20% above league average which is valuable, yes. But again, I'm not disputing that he's a good player. I'm disputing that Santander will have any real impact on the attendance as an "exciting draw." Producing as a star player (and my definition of that and yours may vary) and being a star player are different things. I don't view him as any more "exciting" than Jorge Soler. Both great hitters and Santander provides a bit more given the defensive aspect, but neither are going to impact attendance singularly to the point of being consequential. Given the Marlins' poor attendance last year, I can't really say Soler was a draw. And if I'm a Marlins' fan and someone comes up to me and asks how many games I'm attending, the number doesn't change based on whether Santander is on the team. Given his one year of controllability and the fact the Marlins are competing, but more fringe contenders compared to the Orioles, I don't know that he has that much trade value to the Marlins given it's just for 2024. The point you originally questioned was my saying Santander has more value to the Orioles than the Marlins. I stand by that. He's been a middle of the order hitter for us and he will be again in 2024. The Orioles are coming off a 101 win season and expect to compete for the division and the World Series again in 2024. So his production in 2024 is hugely important. The Marlins, on the other hand, won 84 games despite having a negative run differential. They get a full season of Bell and Burger to help, but lost Soler. They're win projections (depending on the site of course) are generally upper 70s to 80. They're a contender in that they have a shot at the postseason, but few would consider them a legit World Series contender. Things can change, sure, and hope springs eternal, but simply based on 2023 and team direction, the Orioles should be far more focused on 2024 whereas the Marlins should have a longer term view. Consequentially, any 2024 production is more important to the Orioles than the Marlins. Obviously you disagree with my assessment and that's okay. Maybe you are right. Maybe the Marlins really covet a one-year rental for 3-years of Luzardo. But I don't see it personally and if I were in the Marlins' shoes, I wouldn't be all that excited about Santander unless he was the 3rd or 4th piece. And as an Orioles fan, if I'm giving up the offensive production of Santander for 2024, I hope he's the headliner in the deal and not joined by several top prospects as well.

We clearly disagree. Sure, he's Latino and he's a fun hitter, but I'm not sure that Anthony Santander is going to be the deciding factor for a casual fan in Miami to sway them to go to more games or buy a ticket plan. He's a good player and would help the team in 2024, but not the level that becomes an "exciting draw." As I stated, the Marlins are a fringe contender in 2024. While they're certainly looking to improve for this year and Santander helps with that. They're in a position more akin to where the Orioles were last year, coming off a better than expected season and looking to improve for the near future, but with eyes on the next several years rather than the next one. Sure, I guess there's something to be said for a chance at an extension after experiencing a city, but I don't know how much the second lowest attendance last year in MLB helps in that cause. I'm sure being in Miami has a lifestyle draw for Santander (and for most people to be honest), but I really don't see him as having a ton of a value to Miami and I'm not sure a potential of an extension changes that (maybe actually negotiating an extension as part of the deal changes that but that's not all that common). I think the Orioles' have the better chance to compete in 2024 so his production in 2024 helps the Orioles more than the Marlins. That's just how I see it.

I get including Santander in a trade package given the Marlins' clear need for offense--particularly power--and an OF. BUT, with just one year of service remaining, I think he has more value to the 2024 Orioles than to the Marlins as the Orioles are much clearer contenders than the Marlins who are more fringe contenders in 2024 and looking to build long-term. I would imagine Santander would be little more than a 3rd or 4th piece to them whereas he's currently a central part of our lineup as the Orioles get guys like Kjerstad, Cowser and Mayo adjusted to the majors this season and they can, hopefully, take over the spot next season. I would imagine the Marlins are looking for both guys that can contribute in 2024 AND have controllability, particularly given Luzardo has 3 years of control. With Soler gone, they lost their big thumper. They have full seasons of Josh Bell and Jake Burger which does help, but the OF seems a player light and they could definitely also upgrade SS and C. If I'm the Marlins, I'm targeting Basallo. But if I'm the Orioles, I'm not giving him up. Still, a package centered on Cowser and Ortiz could be intriguing as while they're both unproven and each struggled in limited playing time in the Majors, they both have proven all they need to at AAA and could be plugged into the lineup today. Still, I would think they'd want at least one "proven" major league piece. I don't think Mateo offers them much more than they have with Berti. And Urias probably doesn't offer much either given Arreaz and Burger have 2B and 3B set. They may have some interest in O'Hearn given he can be put in the OF, 1B or DH (though the value is probably minimal). And maybe given Garcia's struggles last year Mountcastle may have value to them given he has a few years of control and they can use him and Bell at 1B and DH. Or maybe Hays is an option. Overall, I'm skeptical to give up too many current players given we are looking to compete again but there's certainly a bit of excess to play with...unfortuately, most of the excuse with much value still has consider value to us. Beyond that, they'd probably want a pitcher thrown in the deal as well, landing us with one of our better pitching prospects. All in all, I'd be fine with a Cowser and Ortiz led package. But am struggling to find the veteran and pitching prospect to include in an offer.

I picked Cowser+Norby + one of Povich/McDermott/Johnson/DeLeon. That's not to say I'd make the deal. I don't know that I would, but that's to say what I think it'll be if it gets done. They seem insistent on Cowser or Kjerstad and I think the power for Kjerstad is intriguing enough to the Orioles to opt for him over Cowser. If Cowser is moved, I don't see the Orioles also including Ortiz. I'm not sure the Sox trade him to the Orioles if the Orioles don't cave on one of the OFs, but I also don't think the Orioles would cave enough to move both Cowser and Ortiz. So Norby becomes the #2 in the package and with the asks reported for the Sox from other teams, it's always a several player package. So that means there has to be a significant enough third piece and they seem to want a P in the package. So from there it leaves us with one of the four listed. I could also see a lower end throw-in 4th player, but I doubt that's someone of much consequence.

I do think Basallo is probably midseason 2025 unless he completely mashes all year in AA and AAA. I'm also a bit concerned about just how left-handed we are. That is what gives guys like Ortiz and Norby a chance. That's also why Mayo is nearly untouchable to me, because the end of the year 2025 roster, if all goes well, in my mind is inclusive of only a couple righties or switch hitters: Adley (switch), Mayo, and Westburg. That's it. Holliday, Henderson, Basallo, Kjerstad, Cowser, and Mullins makes up the difference. A guy like Ortiz as an utility infielder can give a day off here and there to Henderson or Holliday against a LHP (and spell Westburg on occasion against a RHP). Norby (as an OF) can do the same for Cowser or Kjerstad (or Mullins with Cowser shifting over to CF). Given the LHH heavy prospects that may make someone like Cowser or Kjerstad more available via trade with Mayo sliding into RF, Basallo playing more 1B and occasional C, and opening up DH to be rotated around and potentially opening up ABs for Ortiz or another RHH. If in this exercise, we are looking for the "spare" parts to trade, the answer still isn't particularly clear. In the end, I'd hate giving up any of our top-5 prospects (or top-6 really given the case I made for Ortiz), but I could see one of Cowser or Kjerstad being moveable given the handedness. And yes, I get that OPACY is set up for LHH while being difficult for RHH, but we make ourselves vulnerable particularly on the road against a tough LHP if we are as LHH-heavy as we are seemingly set to be in a year or two.

To be fair, that role is well earned.

We've been talking about Cease so much that we've either gotten it in our heads that he's a top end starter like 2022 or he's a bum and 2023 is his best version. That said, it's probably more in the middle. If we get Cease, I don't think it'll be at the expense of Mayo or Basallo. If that was the case, I think the trade would've already been made. I'm all on board with getting Cease for a strong 4-prospect package provided that the leading prospect is someone like Ortiz. Will that be enough? I don't know, but obviously no other team has shown a willingness to go where the Sox seem to want. Maybe the Orioles pivot and deal with the Marlins instead and honestly, I'm fine with that too. The thing with Cease, is I do think he has the stuff to be VERY good. We saw that in 2022. He also has some command issues. I wonder what getting out of ChiTown will do for him. What our defense will do for him and what Adley behind the dish will do for his leading the league in WPs two of the last three years. His stuff is amazing. It's the command that needs refining and I'm very curious if the Orioles can improve that--or not.

I could've done some mental gymnastics to be happy if the Orioles added Stroman. But there are personality issues and concerns about him. That said, he's been a good pitcher in his career when healthy, including in the AL East. He's a good pitcher and purely as a player is a good addition to the Yankees' rotation. That said, he's also the type of player/personality that either thrives with the Yankees or he's the kind that struggles for a stretch and gets buried. We will see.

It really depends on clubhouse factors. I trust Elias and company to do the appropriate due diligence in that regard. I don't want him throwing off the clubhouse mojo...but if the due diligence results in confidence that won't happen, I'm okay with him as a pitching addition. He's a career 116 ERA+ pitcher which is better than a #4 type to me. That's a solid 2-3. Health is the other factor. He had a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 games last year, but injuries impacted him down the stretch as he missed a month and a half and was bad in the month and a half he pitched from July 15 onward. There are certainly areas of concern for Stroman, but as a pitcher, he would be the best pitching acquisition (other than trades for guys still in the minors--see Bradish) that we have made in quite some time.

I fully expect a trade (or more) between now and then and that will largely tell us the answer. Ultimately, I expect Ortiz to the one of the focal points of any trade that comes to fruition. He's a very good prospect and I think if the Orioles were going to trade one of the guys ahead of him, we'd already have a new SP...I think Elias getting the best he can without moving Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad or Cowser is the difficulty and the hold up. So, I'm pulling Ortiz out of the contention for that reason. I'd love to believe that Holliday makes the Opening Day roster (and he might), but ultimately, my expectation is he starts the year in AAA. To me, that makes, Westburg, Henderson, and Urias as the most likely "starting" infield to open the year. Urias gets bumped for Holliday as soon as he's ready and Westburg probably goes to 3B with Holliday at 2B...but to open the year, I'll go Westburg. If you're asking May onward, Holliday is my guess.

I agree to some extent, but claiming guys off waivers is a bit harder for the Orioles now than in years past given the teams ahead of them that can put in a claim first. So essentially, the Orioles have to give up a lottery ticket to jump the line.

It's a solid sign for the Royals, but I'm glad the Orioles weren't in on him. I'm still hoping for a bit higher end.

Something about Ramon Urias going to the Brewers the year after they had his brother for a few years is a bit funny and interesting. Same with him going to Seattle now that Luis is there and the two battling it out for the 3B job vacated by the Suarez trade.

I kind of agree with this, though don’t see it as certain as you. You mention several option-less players, including Tate. Based on Fangraph’s roster resource page, he does still have options though I don’t know if that’s true. In any case, I see the following players as NOT making the roster IF the season starters today (and assuming at least one more SP addition): Mike Baumann, Jacob Webb, and ONE OF: Ryan McKenna or Sam Hilliard I have Tate, Urias and Mateo all making the roster at the moment, of course, Urias or Mateo could be dealt with Ortiz easily taking the spot. I don't know that you NEED to move one of the RPs. You could if you get a deal you like, but there are RPs that move during the end of spring training...plus there's always some injuries. The same is true for McKenna and Hilliard. And none of them are making so much that it causes that much of a concern. All that said, I do expect at least one deal...and would not be at all surprised if we see Urias or Mateo in the deal or someone like Webb or Baumann.

Not only do you have Soto as a poor defender, but it pushes Judge to CF taking a good defensive corner outfielder and miscasting him, downgrading two positions. It'll be very interesting to see how often Grisham ends up playing. A lot of that depends on injuries (of course) and Stanton. If Stanton can't bounce back, the offense is still top heavy for the Yankees. And Boone may opt to DH Soto and put Grisham in CF to improve the defense given he had an identical OPS+ to Stanton last year. And, to get Soto (and Verdugo) the Yankees traded a lot of pitching depth....so depending on what else they do this offseason, they may take a not-inconsequential hit on the run prevention side.

Haskins wasn't picked.

I'm assuming the "obvious" ones are out of the question...outside of that, the ones I'd like to NOT see traded are pitchers. Given our pitching prospect depth is not that great, I would hope the deals come from the strength so that leaves the likes of McDermott, Povich, etc. Of course, that's not to say I wouldn't trade one of them in the right move.

That is the rub here. And Elias mentioned that concept in an interview on MLB Network a couple hours ago. Assuming Kimbrel gets wrapped up, that leaves you with a bullpen of Kimbrel, Cano, Coulombe, Wells, Hall, Perez, Irvin, and Tate (assuming health across the board). Of those guys, Cano, Tate, Wells and Hall have options, but of them who realistically would be optioned? Tate...maybe, depending on how he comes back from injury. In a pinch, I guess one of the others could to get a fresh arm, but then you're without them for at least 10 days. Having someone with flexibility would be nice, but then who do we DFA to get that? It'll be interesting to see if the Orioles do anything else for the pen (aside from minor league signings).