jamalshw

I think it depends who you are trying to get on the roster. O'Hearn and Urias are certainly the most "replaceable" options. If O'Hearn were moved, it would open up a spot of Stowers or Kjerstad while Mayo could have a spot if Urias is moved. I don't see Nevin on the team either way, but I guess he could take the O'Hearn spot, but I would be quite upset if we traded O'Hearn to give the spot to Nevin. I view O'Hearn as a useful piece, but a skill set that we can replicate on the roster. Urias is much the same. Honestly, I see both on the team to start the year with a position player roster of: Adley, McCann, Mounty, O'Hearn, Westburg, Henderson, Holliday, Urias, Mateo, Cowser, Hays, Mullins and Santander. If someone needs a LHH and was willing to give up a good bullpen piece, I'd be onboard with moving him, but I don't see it. I think the moves we see are probably a trade for cash considerations of our out of options guys

I'd honestly rather Mateo than Urias if we are making the decision based on it being a LHP. Mateo is not a good hitter, but did have a solid OPS vs. LHP last year. Meanwhile, Urias has not been a good hitter against LHP in his career. His OPS was .654 against them last year.

I agree with this take to some extent, but I think the overthinking is a result of all the times we saw McKenna and company last year against LHPs. I do have concerns we are so left-handed heavy with how that impacts us against the best lefties. Fortunately, I don't put Sandoval in that category. I so think Mateo has a shot to start given he's looked pretty good this spring, was much better against LHP last year and was good early in the season last year. I hope we don't see Urias as a starter on opening day. I like the guy well enough, but I hope he's dealt. He's also not great against LHP so if we are going to bench a LHH, I would at least want it to be for someone that hits LHP well.

I would have loved to have Snell at that rate, but I'm not mad the Orioles didn't go there. The only way it's $62M is if Snell gets seriously injured that impacts Year 2 or he bombs. So at the worst, it's $62M for very little return. Otherwise, it's a one year deal for a bit over $30M and if he pitches like he did last year it's well worth it. Snell's 99 BBs last year are concerning to me. His stuff was so hard to hit that it worked, but the BABIP go up so does his performance. He was FIP in 2019 was better than 2023 despite a 4.29 ERA vs. 2.25 ERA. I think the possible swing for someone like Snell is either Cy Young level dominant at the top end, but he could realistically be a slightly above average pitcher even if he's healthy. He's a bit of an enigma, but an enigma with electric stuff.

It's close and for the Orioles given the make up of the rest of the team and system, it may be Skenes, but I voted Holliday as the injury risk for a young pitcher is too great and you have either one of them for AT LEAST 6 MLB seasons. It also seems that high velocity pitchers like Skenes have the injury risk go up even more.

I don't always agree with your takes, but I definitely agree with this take. We have so many LHHs (and not just in the OF either). Right now, our "regulars" include just two other RHHs (Westburg and Mountcastle) and I'm not completely convinced that Westburg will be a true regular--though I'm of the same mind on Hays. I think we see both get more days off than some of the other regulars. I honestly like Hays for his righty bat and defense in LF as you stated. But I do think he may be poised for a bit of a reduction in playing time and I think that may be for the best given his falling off of sorts in the second half the last two years.

If that is what he becomes, I would hope we'd have better options to start...butt with the speed and defense, it's probably still a Major Leaguer while cheap as a backup/PR.

I do think Cowser is leading for the OF spot, but I don't know that Kjerstad and Stowers are completely eliminated just yet. I do think Holliday has a spot unless something major happens in the next week and would be surprised to see Mayo make the team without a trade of Urias (or someone else) preceding it. I don't expect such a trade to happen, but Urias' solid spring certainly doesn't hurt.

I don't think we needed to bring in a Lewin Diaz type and as long as we don't see Nevin on the MLB roster, I'm fine. I really don't care that much if it's Nevin or Diaz or someone else getting ABs to fill out the roster in Norfolk. Nevin has hit well in Norfolk in the past and is a fine AAA fill-in PROVIDED he doesn't take ABs from someone else. All that said, I would have liked to see some more experiments at 1B with the available ABs on none Mounty/O'Hearn days. I wouldn't mind seeing Stowers or Norby or even Westburg get a start there--not to mention Santander and Kjerstad (Basallo and Mayo I get given Mayo's improvement defensively and wanted to get him his looks at 3B as much as possible and Basallo's injury). None of the guys I mentioned, however, should be considered regular 1B options at any level, but it would be an option to see how those guys would fair and potentially get them more MLB ABs this year if an injury were to occur.

I don't have a problem with this. Say we trade Urias. I could see a situation where Wong would have a spot on the team even with Holliday. That said, it would have to be with very limited playing time. In that situation, the bench would be McCann, Wong, Mateo and an outfielder (ideally Kjerstad or Cowser with the OF rotating around enough to get whichever one enough ABs...but I wouldn't be surprised if it's McKenna or someone else).

This is a hard question to answer as it could mean so many different things. The biggest difference from last year? Burnes or Holliday are certainly the leading candidates. The player with the biggest potential to impact the team from a perspective of the biggest variable in what he could be? Mullins is an option here. Same with Holliday. Or even Bradish as he could be the guy he was last year from mid-May on or he could not pitch at all. That's quite an impactful swing. Cano is another option given the loss of Bautista, the understanding of what Kimbrel is, and the loss of Wells, Hall and Irvin from the pen (at least for a time). Or is this just the guy that is most different because he breaks out and is most improved? In that case, maybe Cowser?

Honestly, I get the embargo outside of Means. That one should have been known. The reason he's not ready is because they had him delay his offseason throwing program. That was their choose and doesn't/shouldn't really impact their plans/trades if what they told us today is true. To me, the Means news is as close to non-news as you can get, but because it was lumped in with Bradish and Gunnar, it's perceived bigger than it would've been had they said that from the get-go. If it was understood that he's intentionally delayed and we won't see him for the first couple weeks of the season, then we would all be expecting Wells or Irvin in the rotation for a couple turns before Means takes the bump. Bradish is the one I'm most concerned about. I hope Gunnar is ready for Opening Day and sounds like a possibility (if not a probability), but in the grand scheme of a 162-game season if he misses a couple weeks to start the year, it's not the end of the world and, hey, maybe it increases the chance of Holliday on the Opening Day roster.

I do contract negotiations for a living (granted in a much different industry). I don't think the asking price goes up from what it was because of this news and a perception that the Orioles may be more desperate, but the asking price is already higher than the Orioles wanted to pay (otherwise a deal would've been done). I do think the balance has changed a bit and the other team may perceive a bit more leverage on their side so they may be less willing (or slower) to lower the asking price further in the back and forth.

I doubt they do...and the fact they're saying he's playing both 1B and 3B in spring and getting ready for work in RF reads that they have little hope of him being an everyday 3B defensively. They're not ready to pull the plug at 3B, but having him getting reps further down the defensive spectrum at 1B and the OF where there is already some depth rather than focusing him on improving his defense at 3B means something. If they were confident in him at 3B, shouldn't he get as many reps as possible there to work on and improve given defense is clearly the weakest part of his game?

At a high level: yes, if Bradish is out the whole year. If he comes back in May, then obviously, no. That said, injuries aside, I expected a regression for Bradish in 2024. While I want to believe 2023 was just the start of something great for Bradish, injury aside, I still expected more of a mid-3 ERA from him in 2024. Burnes, on the other hand, has a bit more track record, and had his worst stretch since becoming a full-time big league starter in the first half last year before righting the ship down the stretch so I expected AT LEAST the same as he did in 2023 and likely him to be a tick better in 2024. Given the option of Bradish OR Burnes for 2024, I would take Burnes. Obviously, the expectation was both which is what made the Burnes addition so exciting (alongside Grayson as well). Hopefully, that is still the case come May. If the Orioles truly believe he's back after 4-6 weeks of the regular season, I would like them to go out and add someone like Lorenzen (as he could go to the pen after--or stay in the rotation if other injuries occur) or at least a good RP so Wells can stay in the rotation without as big a hit to the pen. If the Orioles are just HOPING he's back in May and realistically think he could be out much longer (including for the year), then I would hope they'd go out and add someone better via trade or free agency.

I think the Luzardo stuff was all pre-Burnes trade. While we are just now finding out about Bradish and Means (albeit, it sounds like a very slight delay for Means), Elias and company knew about this for a while. I would expect IF we do anything it will be on the Lorenzen/Ryu level or as an extra RP given it pushes Wells and probably Irvin into the rotation (at least for the start of the year), not the Cease, Luzardo, Snell, Montgomery level. If we do see the Orioles add someone at a higher level, that's a signal to me that they're more concerned about Bradish then they're letting on. Of course, the pubic comments about him could be to help on the trade front as posturing, but unless that's the cases, I don't see the Orioles adding another top-end starter (nor should they).

It really depends on how bad this Bradish injury REALLY is. If he's back in May, then I'm in on Lorenzen as he's a guy (like Wells and Irvin) that can start or relieve and has experience in both. If not, I want to shoot higher.

I'm glad this was a move made after the start of spring so it didn't cost us a guy on the 40-man. I'm still a bit confused on McKenna's option situation this year. But could this be the up-and-down RHH OF guy to replace McKenna? Or if McKenna is out of options and since Hillard is out of options--and considering we are expecting to see Kjerstad and Cowser in the Majors much of the year, is this more of a signing to be sure we have the flexibility to still sport a competitive team and full OF in AAA?

I very much want it to be Mullins, but I think that ship has sailed. I suspect it'll (rightly) be Henderson. If, however, Mullins has a big spring, he could earn it back, but I have little faith he can be the guy from 2021. HIs OBP in any other season isn't good enough for the spot given the other options. He had a .305 OBP last year and .318 in 2022. For me, somewhere around .340 is the threshold, I'm looking for. At this stage, Mullins is still a very valuable player, but that's more related to his defense than anything else. He's an above average offensive player, but was a 101 OPS+ guy last year and 107 guy in 2022. I think with injuries behind him, we should expect better offense numbers than in 2023, but I find it hard to expect much more than we got in 2022. So, give Henderson the lead off spot. Maybe by year end, it'll be Holliday, Adley and Henderson in the top-3 spot. For now, Mullins probably fits best in the bottom third of the order.

I'm not sure I agree with that. I don't think either is realistic (to be clear) and it's probably not even worth me commenting, but lets face it: it's the boring time where we are pretty sure the Orioles are finished with anything of any importance, but we are waiting for the "best shape of his life" reports after the first days of spring. That said, I really don't see a fit for JD at all without moves. You mention Mayo, but even without him, JD is limited to DH with (perhaps) a rare exception. We know Adley will be getting some starts at DH, mostly against LHP. But the spot primarily belongs to O'Hearn vs. RHP. While I expect a regression from O'Hearn and, consequently, him losing ABs, we also have a backlog of guys needing ABs. Kjerstad could certainly get some ABs at DH. Cowser could play OF while Santander gets a partial day. Same with Henderson getting a partial day, but keeping his bat in the order while Mateo is at SS. I just don't think there are ABs to be had at the DH spot without a couple moves...and that's before factoring Mayo into the situation. Obviously, injuries happen and that could open ABs for Mayo or Kjerstad or Cowser, etc. but I still don't see the spot for JD. I get the "things would have to happen" comment, but for Scott, there's a clearer spot for him as he could, theoretically, plug into the spot many of us expected Hall to fill.

Have we fully explored the what-ifs with regard to other infielders getting injured or traded? Should we run the numbers on that? If Urias is traded or gets injured, that increases Holliday's chances by X% vs. Mateo's trade or injury increases it by Y%.

Clase would be extremely expensive given the cost control and years of control remaining. That said, in a fantasy world, it would be amazing. You'd have two closers in Kimbrel and Clase and 2025 would be absolutely ridiculous with Clase and Bautista. If it were to happen, I would be extremely pumped, but it won't. Elias won't give up the prospects to make it happen as that would really hurt our pipeline. The Burnes deal didn't cost too much in terms of altering our farm system situation. Ortiz was getting up there for a prospect and was behind Henderson, Holliday, and Westburg for playing time, making him a role player on our team at best. He had more value elsewhere. As for Hall, the team appears to have already decided he's a reliever. While the Brewers' are going to give him a chance to start so he, too, would appear to have more value elsewhere (even if we all agree that he's going to be a very good back-end reliever). And as for the pick, we're in line to get a comparable pick back next offseason. While Ortiz and Hall certainly have plenty of value, it didn't really impact the Orioles plan or direction at all. A Clase trade would. I can't imagine they could find a deal without including at least one of the top-5.

I agree. He's a guy to help fill out the AAA lineup and keep that team competitive. I think Elias likes guys getting used to winning there. Nevin is the epitome of a AAAA player. He's a very good AAA player and a guy that doesn't fit on most big league rosters for any extended period of time. I would hope all the guys you mentioned would be ahead of Nevin on the depth chart.

With talk of Cowser possibly getting time at all three OF spots, I hope this is the case. And I hope he proves he can play CF at least well enough to give Mullins the occasional breather and well enough that the Orioles don't feel obligated to carry McKenna on the roster. He seems like a good guy and I wish him the best in his baseball career. I appreciate his role with the club the last few years. If that's the case, there's a much clearer path to the Majors and playing time for Cowser. You have the "starting" 9 of (in no order) Mullins, Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Westburg, Henderson, and (eventually/hopefully) Holliday. I'm in the camp that believes Holliday can earn a spot out of spring. With that, the bench goes to McCann for sure, leaving three spots. Barring no trades, I don't see the Orioles bidding farewell to Urias or Mateo just yet. So that's one leftover spot. Unless Mateo is dubbed the CF backup (which we will see in ST if he gets much look there) or the Orioles feel more comfortable with Hays in CF than I do, the last spot needs to be someone that can play CF. Ideally that's Cowser. And if he plays all 3 OF spots, it's reasonably easy to find him 4-5 starts a week. That, of course, bumps Kjerstad to AAA to start the year. All in all...as tough as it is to find ABs for all the good young players, I'm still loving this depth. If anyone (other than Rutschman) goes down, we have an in house option to minimize the impact. Lose a OF? More playing time for Cowser and Kjerstad. Lose a Mountcastle or O'Hearn reverts to pre-2023 form? We have Kjerstad or Mayo to fill those ABs. One of the infielders go down? We have Urias who was a Gold Glover at 3B and guys can move around to cover the other positions. And I didn't even mention Norby who could be an answer in a corner OF spot or 2B with an injury...and what about Stowers? Man, I'm loving this embarrassment of riches.

Law always seems to love the athletic types. He had a thing for Adam Hall back in the day which didn't pan out. His latest fav that he was higher on than others for the Orioles was Ortiz before he was dealt (though he still has him higher than most). Now, it's Bradfield. These are the types that can sometimes exceed the consensus expectations, but they're also volatile and can underachieve as well. If there's not enough threat there in a guy like Bradfield, his ability to get on base will struggle as he will constantly get challenged, making it harder to draw a walk. BUT as has been stated already in this thread if he shows a bit of power (and it doesn't even have to be home run power, just the ability to get it in the gap and off the wall) he has the tool set to succeed. And so by putting guys like Bradfield higher on his last than others, he can say "see, I was right" if he hits, meanwhile most forget it and chalk it up to "prospects are hard to predict" when he's wrong.