jamalshw

Lowder is a top-100 in a few places, but the point stands. It's a pitching heavy front of the deal (which could prove an issue for the Orioles), but if the Sox aren't married to the idea of the biggest prospects in the deal being pitchers, the Orioles can easily top that deal without moving the highest ranked guys.

I think this may spell out that they're feeling confident about Yamamoto (or another SP) if they're now willing to include King in the deal.

I know there's some question on whether Cano can replicate what he did last year, but if he can this year with Cano, Hall, Wells and Hader, I would feel great about the last few innings of any game. And then adding in Bautista when he's healthy, you have two of the best closers in the game (one from each side) and a killer set up crew...all you would need from a starter would be 5 innings (and maybe even less in the playoffs).

Its a low risk scenario, so we may grab someone to get a look at them in spring training, but I don't expect the Orioles to keep anyone on the roster. There just isn't space. The bullpen may have a spot or two open, but several arms are lacking options and a Rule-5 guy wouldn't be able to be sent down. Elias (and most teams) like to have at least a spot or two that can be used to shuttle guys up and down in case of overwork. I don't see a guy worth taking a spot like that on a team that just won 101 games.

I honestly don't know...so if it's not a no, I guess it's a reluctant yes...but I don't think I'd throw in a third unless it was a non-consequential third. He's an upgrade to the rotation without a doubt. But he's a bit of an enigma. His stuff is amazing, but the walks are troubling...if nothing other than for selfish reasons I'd like a different (at least as good) option for the rotation because the walks would frustrate me so much. That said, I do think having a competent defense behind him would certainly help him. I don't think expecting the 2.20 ERA Cease is realistic, but I also don't think this 4.58 ERA Cease was the real Cease.

I think it's both ways. I agree that in most cases the Orioles are not seriously pursuing extensions with the young guys, but I do think it would be more difficult to get someone like Jackson Holliday to agree to one, particularly this early, given his father's career earnings are north of $150M so the money doesn't do as much for him and his family as it would a kid from Chourio who (admittedly did get a very nice signing bonus, but still). That said, I don't disagree with your assertion that the Orioles likely wouldn't extent Chourio at this point either. As to the question the OP posed: no, I don't make that deal. While our infield is more backed up than our OF, I don't think we have a need in the OF. We have Kjerstad and Cowser at the moment with Hays, Mullins and Santander still holding down spots. Norby could very well end up in the OF. And behind them are Beavers, Bradfield, etc. Now if it was a top end SP prospect in a similar situation in terms of levels, age, expectations as Chourio I'm more interested.

I hope this is right. Mullins is one of the easiest guys on the team to root for and even with an approximately league average offensive season and just 404 ABs, he managed nearly 3 WAR. BUT...if he can get back closer to his 2021 form, that would be HUGE. You can throw him back at the top of the order and then everyone else slides down and elongates the lineup. Adley, Gunnar and Santander in the middle, Mountcastle can slide down to the 5th hole. And when Holliday and/or Mayo come up they can be eased in at the bottom of the order. Even with last year's version of Mullins, this is a good group of position players...but with something closer to 2021 version of Mullins, it can really take this offense to another level.

Conspiracy theory time (aka- this is not at all true but it's the offseason and I'm bored without real baseball) The Orioles sign Uwasawa to a low dollar/risk contract in hopes of getting utility out of him, but also to show a multi-year commitment to a Japanese player. Yamamoto has expressed he wants to join a team with a Japanese player on the roster. Again...this is NO WAY the case and I don't believe for a second the Orioles are in on Yamamoto....but I'm bored. (Also, the easier answer would be just resigning Fujinami)...but still....

If it's a couple years and a couple million a year, I like it on it's own, but not as the only SP move. What it means to me is that the Orioles are not legitimately planning on considering Wells or Hall in the rotation so Uwasawa would be a depth sign. He'd be given a chance to win the 5th spot against Kremer (the obvious favorite for it) and Irvin. The losers of the battle go to the bullpen to bolster the pen and provide multi-inning guys there which can give Hyde options if he wants to go short on Grayson or Means on occasion to help minimize innings. The Orioles were also VERY lucky in SP injuries this past year which is unlikely to be the case next year so it gives additional options when inevitable injuries hit. Overall, it's a low risk move and if the Orioles see something in his repertoire that they can maximize, it is well worth it. BUT...if this is THE starting pitching move, that's an issue. Uwasawa as depth and a bit of a lottery ticket to see how his stuff plays in the MLB. Add E-Rod as well for the more certain option after Bradish. Pick up an extra reliever for the back-end and call it a day.

I don't think they'll do this, but I would prefer to see them sign someone like E-Rod for the rotation and then trade for a reliever like a Williams or Bednar. That would give you a lockdown closer as well as insurance in the off-chance Bautista doesn't recover as well as we expect/hope. And if he does, just imagine the backend of the 2025 bullpen.

I still have hopes that it'll be a level above Flaherty/Giolito. I really wanted Gray and the 3/$75M deal would have been a good one, but who's to say he wanted to come to Baltimore. My focus now is E-Rod. Adding a second lefty to the rotation makes sense, too. Add E-Rod to the Bradish, Grayson, Means, and Kremer foursome and that's a solid rotation with some insurance in the likes of Wells, Irvin, Hall, etc. Then, use the prospect capital to add a big reliever.

I will be very interested in seeing what he ends up getting. Gray was one that I wanted. But he may not have wanted to play on the east coast.

Given they're building a rotation basically from scratch (save Mikolas as maybe Matz though his season ended early and healthy is always a huge question with him). So they added Lynn and Gibson on short relatively low risk deals. I imagine Cardinals fans aren't exactly enthralled yet and will be demanding at least one big fish at the front of the rotation. I wish Gibson luck. I hope he does well. He seems like a good guy...but at this point the Orioles need to shoot higher so I'm kinda glad to see him go elsewhere.

It's hard to know what is realistic when the front office has done such a good job of keeping things out of the press. We don't really know what the payroll target is. While there is definitely an increase coming given they offered every arb-eligible player a contract, I still believe there's at least some money there to spend. I'm not going to get deluded into thinking Snell or Yamamoto is possible, but I do think Gray or E-Rod is realistic. E-Rod probably gets more years while Gray gets a higher AAV. I think I'd prefer Gray, but E-Rod does give us a second (third if you count Irvin) LHP that can start which is notable given the wall in LF. Given that, I'll say: Sign E-Rod to a 4 year/$90M(ish) deal. And maybe add a reliever or two from the fringes of the market. Less realistic, but still (in my opinion reasonable): Sign either Gray or E-Rod. Trade for a reliever top end reliever. I'd love to see the Orioles get either Williams or Bednar. The Orioles have the prospect surplus to swing one of those--but I think that is too big of a fish to be realistic.

This is incredibly tough to me, but ultimately I think it's a no. Bieber would immediately make the rotation better, no doubt there, but I do have some concerns about his K:9. It was 14.2 when he won the Cy Young in 2020. Granted, that was just 12 starts and thus a small sample, but it was 10.9 and 12.5 the year prior and after. Since the 12.5 mark in 2021 (also just 16 starts), it's dropped to 8.9 in 2022 and 7.5 last year. To go along with this dropping K rate, he also had his WHIP jump and his FIP jump a whole run per game (alongside his ERA making the same jump). He's still a solid pitcher, but I'm not sure I remove one of the best bats for him. Maybe if Cowser dominated in his time in the majors. While I do think Cowser and Kjerstad becoming replacements after next year, I'm not sure they're ready yet. There was a thread earlier about too many rookies, that would just exacerbate the problem unless we went out and signed a bat like Soler. And if that's the case, wouldn't it just be easier to add Gray or E-Rod?

Not to derail this thread, but I think the deal makes sense for both sides. Neither are getting anything great, but every team needs more LHP. And the Sox just need options now. The team is a bit of a hot mess. Soroka and Shuster give options at the back of the rotation (not great ones, but ones that at least have some upside). Lopez and Shewmake are options that could help at SS and couldn't be much worse than Anderson was last year. Atlanta gets a LH reliever that MAY be good. The Sox get guys that give them options where they have gapping holes.

I truly wonder if we see any trades today ahead of the deadline for bubble guys. Nothing that would really move the needle, but with Elias liking to maximize value as much as possible, I think he'd prefer to deal a guy for a PTNL over just non-tendering him.

I think it'll be very interesting to see what happens today with non-tender guys. If we tender most everyone, I think that can be interpreted that we won't be adding much via free agency. If the Orioles save a few million today by non-tendering Mateo, Tate, and/or Urias (maybe a couple others on the lowest end, too) perhaps that opens up the door and some money to add for a free agent sign. I do think most of the potential upgrades come via trade.

Cease is quite low on the list for me. He'd be an improvement for our rotation, but there are better options over him and even with how electric his stuff is, the lack of command would drive me crazy over a full season.

Thank you. I feel so seen.

I voted Basallo first just because I wanted everyone to look at me. LOL

I love how we were wondering (or at least I was) whether Kjerstad could make the huge jump this year and we saw Basallo last year, but wondered what he would do. Both were at interesting points in their development journeys this year with questions to be answered and both answered those questions about as well as possible. I voted Basallo and Kjerstad here just because I see Mayo further in the development and as a bigger certainty. Positionally, Basallo could be given the edge.

This comment would assume that Bowden once "had it." Anytime I read anything from him or hear him on the radio, it baffles my mind how he was a GM...not once, but twice.

It sounds great, but cannot imagine we give up what it takes to get that deal done given Burnes only has the one year left. With that in mind, if I'm going to trade for one of the two of them, it's Williams. I'm personally in the camp of trading for an elite closer and signing Gray or E-Rod. (Of course, I doubt either happens realistically, but that's what I think SHOULD happen). If you can put Williams in the 9th inning (or Bednar from the Pirates), you basically recreate what was so HUGE for the Orioles in 2023 with a lockdown 9th, Cano in the 8th and then a selection of lefties and righties to get you there. THEN, in 2025, you have one more year of Williams who can give you a nice transition back to Bautista who probably shouldn't be pushed right back into the closer role after missing more than a year. BUT once he's back to form, a tandem of Williams and Bautista, shortens the game to a 7-inning affair.

I honestly don't know. I have Norby and Bradfield above the others in my mind. There's a Holliday, Mayo, Basallo tier for me, then a Kjerstad, Cowser, Ortiz tier. After that, I have Norby and Bradfield ahead of the remaining so they're my 7-8 (though I'm almost certainly wrong as I always am). With that in mind, I voted McDermott and Horvath. Given Norby appears in three of the options, though, I kinda expect him to be in this group given the defensive concerns and the upside of some of the others, but I can't discount the fact his floor is so high.