seak05

If Austin Hays is the backup CF that is a roster construction problem (and why I can't imagine McKenna not making the team, who is the alternative backup?)

With the rule changes in the minors last year, I think they spent less time actually learning to read pitchers, and more time using the rules to their advantage. It will be interesting to see the rule change impact on mlb. If it plays out how it does in the minors, gunnar should have 20sb easy

In his interview yesterday Elias mentioned that Frazier could play corner of if Santander is DHing, and how they have a lot of guys with positional flexibility. With the DH, and including corner of, there are a lot of abs to go around. And hopefully that would mean you don’t have an obvious b lineup you have to play once a week

Yep, thanks

I guess it’s more j just see him in a lot of trade rumors yeah I guess this was mostly my question, is there anyone with plus speed. And the answer appears to be no. So if the orioles were to part with Mullins, they’re either taking a real drop in defense with Cowser or serious offense drop with McKenna (or I guess Haskin). It would be a big win for system depth if Fabian can hit

I feel like the consensus on Cowser is more avg def cf, and seems like he’s best suited to the super size lf at Camden yards long term. Hernaiz might be interesting.

With Cedric nearing free agency, I was half wondering if any of the orioles infield prospects could potentially play a plus cf? I assume Holiday, but he’s staying at SS (and is a ways away). I know Vavra has dabbled out there. Westburg?

That’s a crazy deal for a guy with his injury history

Hand eye coordination would be a tool though, and is measured by hit, bat speed is a tool etc

At this stage, Gunnar. In a few years if gunnar fills out and loses some range, the answer is neither

The data hoarding (pro golf does it too) is really really frustrating

I didn't forget, I was trying not to quote the whole write-up though, and so I quoted the part that I was specifically asking about, which was the weakness against low pitches/stiffness. I am not a scout, and so I was curious if you had seen the same thing as the author, or not. I literally put at the top that the article was in reference to how great he was at hitting the high fastball

This was from an article noting that Mayo is exceptionally good at hitting the high fastball. The opening part of the section notes that he is one of the bet hitters in the minors with high fastballs, and has many laudatory things to say https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/11/9/the-best-fastball-hitters-in-the-minors However, Coby Mayo is not without his flaws. His lower half is somewhat stiff, and the flat attack angles still lead to some trouble connecting with pitches down in the zone. He has below-average wOBAcons and contact rates against fastballs down in the zone. He also is particularly poor against pitches with at well below-average vertical movement (14”). He has just a .338 xwOBAcon as he has proven incapable of pulling the ball in the air, when the pitch is moving against his bat path. These problems extend beyond just the low fastball. Mayo also has problems with doing damage on breaking balls, because he can not hit the pitches down in the zone. He posted just a 50.3% contact rate against breakers in the lower third, and a .252 xwOBAcon. Mayo capitalizes on hanging pitches, but as he climbs the ladder, breaking ball stuff, command, and usage is all going to uptick and this problem could be his undoing. To be fair to Mayo, he has below-average chase rates against breaking balls. The four-seam hitting carries the profile, and might make Mayo better suited for a somewhat situational role. He can start most games, but it’s probably best to sit him against pitchers who spam the breaking ball or have a very steep VAA on their fastball.

In an mlb pipeline q&a, a question was asked about Lawlar being the potential overall #1 prospect at the end of next year. The answer was potentially yes, but his bet was that Holliday would be #1 overall

I think some people here are undervaluing high leverage reliever. As a reliever Hall has Diaz level upside, and he just signed for 100m dollars. The importance of relievers is only going to grow going forward

I read some stuff recently that he really struggles with balls lower in the zone. Is that something you’ve seen? Or is it a case of a national person not really seeing him

Yeah, I remembered that chat as well. I'm curious as to Tony's take on Westburg's defense. If he's an above avg (not elite) defensive second basemen then I can see putting him above Ortiz...but I don't know, legit major league SS, I think I'd have Ortiz above Westburg and others. Tony definitely seems more bullish on Westburg and Mayo then I am (and he knows a heck of a lot more)

I think once you get into the playoffs it's mostly a crapshoot anyways, and for a variety of factors any teams odds of winning the WS are going to be very low. As it's over the course of 162 a teams odds and ability to make the postseason are much more controllable, and are the odds I would focus on . I think the Orioles have a good shot at the playoffs in the next two years, especially if they add in free agency

My #1 priority for the Orioles this offseason is to sign a top line starter (doesn't need to be an ace but a solid #3 with #2 potential, someone who could start a playoff game). I wouldn't like another bat, but I don't think you need to pay the premium one of the shortstops will command. A Josh Bell or Nimmo type would fit well. I'm also hoping that the Orioles lock up some of their own young talent long term

The cost of elite pitching is incredibly high, and the value of excellent bullpen arms is only growing. At 2yrs 90 million you're getting an injury discount on DeGrom

I had this same thought And then I had this thought. And you still have to pay players/staff etc. It's more of a wealth asset then an income asset. But hey minority investors are always needed

This, you need Grayson to pan out, and then you need another TOR guy, and then you hope Kremer and Bradish are also above average ML SP's

I think if you want to win a WS it helps to have at least one big pitching egg, they don't come cheap, and the Orioles haven't been drafting them. Degrom gives you more long term flexibility then a Rodon because it's a shorter contract.

He has been the top pitcher in Japan for several years, and is the same age as Rodon. I want the Orioles to sign one pitcher who could be a top 2 starter in the playoffs. I think Senga will be cheaper then either of the other two, but he still projects as a top level pitcher.

In a heartbeat, and right now the Orioles have payroll flexibility. I'd also be fine with signing Rodon, but that one has more financial risk long term. I would like to see them sign one of Rodon, Degrom or Senga this offseason