seak05

Please give an example of the social media stuff that is “out there” that bothers you?

What if he takes Jones, and Green becomes the next Trout? Trout wasn’t even a top 20 pick. Historically the best player in the draft has rarely been the top pick.

A bat flip isn’t a lack of maturity, it’s having a different style. That’s not your style? Fine, nobody is asking you to do it. But it doesn’t impact your job performance. Stoicism is a cultural choice, and not something that is praised in all cultures. A lack of maturity is showing up late, not preparing properly….things that are actually how you perform your job.

Sitting out tonight was definitely weird

It's more about positional scarcity. There are very very few major league catchers who are both good offensively and defensively, so if you have a chance to get one, you grab it. There are comparatively more shortstops who can do both, but it's still fairly rare, and on down the spectrum. It's one reason though you take an Adley over a Witt Jr.

I mean if you want pure upside, that's Green

I don't love Johnson's numbers in the wood bat league, but the spread of opinion on his hit tool, and therefore his prospect ranking (mlb pipeline is also quoted as saying several scouts have him at #1) is a good reminder that there really isn't as much consensus on prospects as some of the rankings would have us believe. If Holliday can play SS, then that's who I would pick, SS is just more valuable then CF. (also in the tweet about Elias visiting Holliday, the word "say" is doing a lot of work)

Fair enough, if you think CF defense is more valuable then 3b defense, that's obviously a point for Jones. Analytics suggests that players who do well younger against older players, tend do better as pro's, which for me is a point for Collier (presuming he plays well in the Cape). But the reality is I'd be fine with any one of Jones, Holliday, Lee, and Collier (I'm not as sold on Johnson's bat as some scouts...but I could also be wrong) I think if we go Holiday its because the Orioles think he's BPA, there's been zero indication he would take under slot/sign for less then Jones. He's got a strong college option, and he's not going to fall far if he doesn't go 1:1

Last year at this time it was Green and Johnson, but mostly Green. Collier, Lee, and Jones all offer plus defense potential. Plus defense at 3b is equivalent to plus defense in CF, 2b (Lee) might be slightly higher. If you look at Law on Collier, then yes scouts think he'll have more power then Lee, because he is younger though, you are doing more projection. He also has a stronger arm. Generally speaking though, prospects who hit well against older competition, tend to be more likely to outperform their pre-draft rankings, Correa and Machado are a couple examples of this, as is Gunnar.

Then why do you want to take Jones? His power is only half a grade higher then Lee? The thing with Collier is he's so young, his body type and swing suggests he has more power potential, but at the same age last year, no one was even talking about Jones for the #1 pick

I’ll be watching Collier on the cape. If he hits well there, he probably becomes my #1. Defensive value as a potential 3b, and he’ll have hit at a higher level at a younger age, and with wood

I don't think he'll have to move to LF, at least not when he's young, but it's not a non-zero chance...and the drop off from CF to LF from a def value perspective is massive, and much larger then the drop off in value from having to shift from SS to 3b. As an aside, his dad was no longer an good CF by 30, but he was elite in his early 20's

By the way here are the current def positional adjustments from bref +9 runs SS: +7 runs 2B: +3 runs CF: +2.5 runs 3B: +2 runs RF: -7 runs LF: -7 runs 1B: -9.5 runs DH: -15 runs and from fangraphs Catcher: +12.5 runs (all are per 162 defensive games) First Base: -12.5 runs Second Base: +2.5 runs Third Base: +2.5 runs Shortstop: +7.5 runs Left Field: -7.5 runs Center Field: +2.5 runs Right Field: -7.5 runs Designated Hitter: -17.5 runs Basically C is most valuable, then SS, CF/3B/2B are roughly equal, and then RF/LF and 1b are negative, with DH being even more negative still

Holiday has a SS ceiling (note the if he can't stay at SS), but his floor is 2b/3b or I guess CF, all of which are valuable def positions. Jones' def floor is LF, which is much lower down on the def rating scale. So fundamentally Holiday's def ceiling is much higher then Jones' and his floor is Jones' ceiling

That would be the hope, but that's unknown. Even then, he would go from plus in CF to playable, at which point you're putting more pressure on the bat. Maybe he becomes a GG CF, but what I'm trying to say is that's the ceiling, and not the floor. The floor is LF.

The other concern on Jones is he fills out, loses speed, and has to move to LF, which is no longer a premium defensive position. Holliday if he fills out and has to move, shifts to 3b, which is still a premium def position (and part of why I might go for Holiday)

This is pretty much where I am, although I would have Collier on this list, and probably take off Green. The only one who has a higher defensive ceiling (based on position) is Holliday. Lee/Jones/Temarr/Collier all are projected to be at positions that have similar defensive value. I worry about Temarr's physique, and like that Collier has hit against higher level pitching at a younger age. Lee is probably the safest pick to be a major league starter. Jones/Holliday/Collier are the most likely to become stars (although it's highly unlikely). What I'm not sure I get is all the people who think we should take Jones, but dismiss Lee/Temarr because they're going to be 2b or 3b. Those positions are equally valuable defensively as cf. Honestly, I just think to many people are getting swept up in the draft boards Jones hype. And have decided he is sliced bread. I'd be happy if the Orioles picked him, but I don't think he's a slam dunk

Moniak justin Upton (actually played ss in high school, but drafters as of) delmon young josh hamilton griffey jr shawn abner darryl strawberry Going back to 1980 these are high school of drafted 1:1. Jones is not considered the same level of prospect as Griffey jr. or Hamilton, but he is certainly better then Moniak. I’d be fine with them taking Jones, but there is a fairly good chance he turns into Bubba Starling. It just seems like you’re treating Jones more like a Griffey or Harper prospect, and the scouting reports/pre-draft analysis doesn’t match that.

The likelihood is that Lee will end up a better player then Jones

I agree with all of this, except that I think it’s what’s happening to Lee, because we have a lot more tape on him. Just like scouts had a lot more tape on Peyton. Lee is a good hitter, who has hit at a high level in multiple places, and he will play a premium def position. (2b & 3b are equal to cf on the defensive spectrum). Maybe Jones has a touch more upside due to power potential, but Lee has already proven himself at a much higher level

He finished well, and his hit tool has the higher grade. Betting on which high school player is going to hit though is a crap shoot, which is why I’m defaulting to defensive value. But it’s also why I strongly considered answering Collier

Defensively Holliday has more value as the potential SS, and questions about hit tool make me nervous (see Bubba Starling)

How does Collier (or Jones) have higher upside then Holliday? want: collier or Holliday wr take: Holliday

Jon Shepard thinks if the orioles spend it will be on Holliday, and underslot would be Collier. Basically his reasoning is Holliday is the much more valuable defensive prospect if he can stick at SS, and even if he has to move - 3b is equal in value to cf defensively (as is 2b)

Ortiz can play a major league SS, and has experience at 2b and SS. If he hits at all this year at double-A he'll be taken...because you can easily put him on your bench as a utility player and have him contribute defensive value