seak05

Bullpen pieces are generally valuable at the trade deadline. I suspect Lopez, Bautista, and Perez will have suitors.

It wouldn’t surprise me. He wouldn’t be my pick, but I do think some around here are focusing to much on the fact he’s not a SS & ignoring the fact that 2b and 3b are still premium positions. This is part of where the Collier intrigue comes in for me though. If he performs well in the cape, you now have data on him against high level pitchers in a way you don’t for Jones, plus he has a lot of upside

And sometimes you get Correa and Buxton, or Witt Jr and Adley, or Harper and Machado (another late riser who was young for his class). Because what often happens if you have some people who feel one way, and others who feel differently. There’s very rarely a consensus on who belongs “on top”. But if one guy wants 2m more, you’d have to feel strongly he was the better player. As long as you’re staying within talent tiers. What you don’t want to do though is choose Bush over Verlander, where they were clearly on different talent tiers, just for the savings

As an aside I thought Mayer was the obvious 1:1 last year, or at least Leiter. But I think at 1:1 clubs get very risk averse, and college position players are by far the safest demographic. No club wants to whiff on a 7m dollar first pick

I don’t think the debate is really don’t “the most talented guy” but if there is really a one most talented player. I would be upset if the orioles took Berry, as he’s outside the top tier of talent. But within that top tier I can make good arguments for all of them, and I don’t really see a large separation. Some on here argue that if one guy is a 93 & the other is a 92.5 it’s a travesty if you take the 92.5 bc why even get the top pick then. I think at that point you’re guessing either way on which player is going to be better

BTW I find it mildly ironic that the best 1:1 HS pick of the last decade was an under-slot, cost saving signing. Especially at the HS level the draft is a crapshoot, I just find the idea that there is only one clear right answer to be laughable.

The last high school player to go 1:1 overall was Royce Lewis in 2017, he still hasn't made the majors (horrible injury luck) 2016: Moniak: -.1 career WAR 2014: Aiken: never made majors 2012: Correa - 30.9 WAR So in the last decade 4 high schoolers have been taken 1:1, and exactly 1 turned into even a major league regular. Jones might become a superstar, but it's much more likely he barely makes an impact. Lee might not become a superstar, but he's likely to become a solid regular. I'm fine with going for the high upside HS player, but if your expectation is anything other then just make the major leagues, you're likely to be disappointed

college bats have tended to be the #1 pick lately. I get that you're primarily looking at upside potential, but the Orioles will also consider floor, and Lee has the highest floor (probably followed by Jones because the defense should be elite even if he can't hit). The failure rate for HS is very high, even top picks. In this draft I would take a high schooler, but I think you're discounting the college guys. Keep in mind one of the reasons you've heard more about Lee's shortcomings is he's played three extra years at a higher level.

Mancini is expected to have 13 homers, he has 6. It’s by far the largest gap in baseball. All of this to say: if they come to the park one morning and the wall has been ripped down, I think we know the prime suspect

Yeah but the distinctions within a tier are usually fairly small, it’s between tiers that have the bigger distinctions. So if you have two guys in the same tier but one is a SS maybe that pushes him to the top etc Also let me just say I would not be upset at Collier. Performing well as a younger player (in a class) has historically been a very good indicator

He was considered the top or second best college hitter in the draft, he would never have been around at 20. I think some of you have unreasonable expectations of what draft prospects look like. Every prospect in the draft pretty much needs to change something

I know that's how the prospect lists do it bc lists are fun, but I would imagine the Orioles actually have them in tiered groupings, because people aren't actually a test grade and they don't come with numbers

Hyde must hate Bradish to role that defensive outfield out

Hays has been great, but Lopez has to be on the All Star team

Combined 4/4 tonight with a double, triple, run, rbi and sb. Not to shabby

I made a trip out of it. Since others are posting: Nats, PNC, New Yankee, Old Yankee, Wrigley, Fenway, Memorial, Camden I really want to go to St Louis, Giants, Seattle

I feel like I'm the only person who didn't love PNC park. The park itself was fine...but the food options were really mediocre and the beer lacked local offerings

The odds on a perfect throw are pretty low, but yeah if he makes a good one, Mountcatle is probably out. Like the send though

Shockingly it didn't

Great start by Kremer, and now Hyde should turn it over to the bullpen. He only actually "got" one of those outs, and it was a line drive

The throw wasn't great, but it was accurate. The catch and release though was impressive and very fast

The Orioles aren't making the play-offs this year. The goal is for Hall to be a big league, why not leave him in Norfolk till he can get through 5-6 innings there regularly

I think they like guys to have "positional versatility" and he doesn't have the arm for the LF of the infield, but he has some speed. He's probably a super utility, but a guy who starts 4+ times a week, not a McKenna who might start once, but come in often as a defensive replacement (I agree you probably don't need both on the roster though). I would expect Vavra to come up when they decide what they are going to do with Odor though

His defense has been so good, that he actually has a positive WAR....but his hitting has been really really atrocious

I think Gunnar has more defensive upside at SS then Westburg, so I think those two would flip, but maybe not. Another ho-hum day 1-2 with 2BB (and I believe the double was against a lefty)