luismatos4prez

The Gillaspie pick stunned me. He did have some good strikeout and walk numbers this year, but do we really like him better than Vespi? I think there's a >50% chance Vespi gets taken. I hope we're not seeing Vespi threads all next year a la Pop.

Career Minors OPS: Bannon .808 Nevin .778 Neustrom .749 I agree there's definitely a case to be made for keeping Neustrom over those two. But it's not a slam dunk like you're making it out to be. Neustrom had a .748 OPS at Norfolk last year - that's an average AAA hitter.

The official rules don't say anything about clubs having to meet anything called "exporting requirements". But those rules apply to the last CBA. Who knows what will be in the next one? Competitive balance picks may change or cease to exist.

By my count, the Orioles have 8 empty spots and 5 easy cuts still on the 40 man roster, so space is not an issue at all. My final picks are Vavra, Bradish, DL Hall, Bautista, and Neustrom. I'm ambivalent about Neustrom, Smith, and Vespi. I'd be fine either way with those 3, but gun to my head I'd pick Neustrom.

Elias really has the easiest job in sports. Step 1: Draft prospects Step 2: Get a couple Rule 5 guys Step 3: In February, offer Spring Training Invites to anyone that's still unemployed Step 4: Claim anyone that Tampa Bay puts on waivers That's all.

Norfolk's lineup was terrible this year. They scored the least runs in Triple A East. Some of it was the fault of organizational guys in the lineup (Ripken, McCoy, Jarrett, Escarra, Mejias-Breen) but the prospects seriously underperformed there as well (Nevin, Bannon, Diaz). I'd consider moving on from Tim Gibbons (Norfolk's hitting coach).

Agreed. I expect Akin, Zimmermann, Baumann, Lowther, Wells, Kremer, GRod, Bradish, and Hall will all get a chance to try out for the rotation. Just a lot of potential there.

Terrible final outing of the year for Smith (6 BB in 1.2 IP). He appeared to be a lock to be added to the 40-man after dominating in Bowie this year, but he might have pitched himself off of it after his performance in Norfolk (6.23 ERA, 7.83 BB/9, 2.24 HR/9). Mike clearly liked him when he made the trade. Do you think Smith still gets added this winter? Would a team Rule 5 him?

Nice play by Martin. Great K by Valdez!

Servideo will be 23 on OD. That's really old for Delmarva. It's time for him to be pushed rather than play it conservative. Hernaiz will be 20. Spending a few months in Delmarva and a few months in Aberdeen is very reasonable for a 20 year old. Especially given that he was a below average hitter in Delmarva this year.

Nice post! I like playing around with this stuff as well. A few disagreements: I'd leave Hernaiz in Delmarva to start. He's still young and didn't hit that well this year (.691 OPS). Servideo should start in Aberdeen despite missing time this year. He hit well in his limited PAs there and he'll be 23 on OD. I don't see much point in starting DL Hall at AA. He dominated there (though in only 30 IP) and he'll be on the 40-man. I'd put him in Norfolk with Grayson.

I'm an Adam Hall believer still, despite his bad year. My hope is that no one takes him in the Rule 5 and he tears it up in Bowie next year.

As of today, the payroll for next year (including Chris Davis, Mancini, and Santander) comes in at under 40 M. It's Mike's 4th year next year. Another 110 loss season is unacceptable. If this offseason looks like the last several, I won't tune in next year.

I would love the Orioles to sign Andrelton Simmons this offseason. I bet he'd come here for 2/14. A Cesar Izturis-type player at this point in his career, but that's valuable. Mateo, Urias, and Jones can fight it out for 2B/3B/UT, with Vavra and Bannon hopefully joining later. There is not one ML-ready starting pitcher in the Orioles organization besides John Means. That is a dire situation that requires investment. You can let Akin/Kremer/Lowther/Baumann/Wells/Zim/etc battle it out for 2 rotation spots and a long man. But 2 ML starters must be acquired or this team will be an embarrassment again next year.

I'm pessimistic about Stowers, just from scouting the stat line. There aren't a lot of guys who strike out ~30% of the time in the minors and end up successful big league hitters. Joey Gallo is the only one I can think of, and he has 80 grade power (which Stowers does not). Can anyone think of any others?

Pretty uninspiring first go round in AAA for Smith this year. Good K numbers (10.83 K/9) but a lot of walks (6.36 BB/9) and home runs (2.24 HR/9). Not a Top 30 guy for me and I see Tony has him #35 now also. He'll probably be converted to a reliever.

If Elias offered Severino 3M next year, his agent would assume it was a joke. I'd sign a veteran glove-first catcher, a shortstop like Iglesias/Simmons, and spend the rest on starting pitchers. The rotation situation next year is really, really dire. Akin/Zimmermann are a really tragic 2/3 and I don't even know who 4/5 are right now. Lopez and Scott should clock in at around 1M each next year (like Miguel Castro when he was Arb1)

I'd be very, very careful about trading a high character, great defensive CF who can steal 30 bags, hit 30 HRs, and hit .300. They aren't too many of those. We're building toward a WS contender with the window opening in 2024 or so. Mullins will still be here then.

I guess they're keeping him at Delmarva. Hopefully, he can have a Stowers-like year next year and move all the way to Norfolk.

His stock is way, way up after this year. He's absolutely mashing and he's still a teenager. The infield prospect depth is encouraging right now. Gunnar, Mayo, Servideo, Norby, Ortiz, Westburg, Adam Hall, Vavra, etc. Aberdeen and Bowie will have some crowded infields to start next year!

.255/.305/.447 in the first half (104 wRC+) .289/.344/.599 in the second half (148 wRC+) It could just be a hot streak, but I'm very excited by what I'm seeing from him. There's nothing unusual about his BABIP or HR/FB in the second half to suggest it's luck. His walk rate is up, K rate is down, and he's just mashing.

I agree. The team tries hard, that's all I ask for right now. The 8th inning last night was the best moment of the year after the No-Hitter.

Wow! That's exciting to hear. Another good outing for Bautista tonight, 1IP 0H 2K 1 BB 1 Save He has walked 27 guys in 38 IP this year (6.4 BB/9) which is concerning. Protecting him this winter and letting him work on throwing strikes in Norfolk next spring seems like the best move.

None of Grenier, Blaine Knight, Bishop, and Dorrian get added I'm guessing and Severino is a goner after the season. There's also a group of guys (Nevin, Martin, Harvey, Diaz, Burdi, and Bannon) that I'm fine with stashing in Norfolk if there's room but I'm fine with giving up on at this point if they need the roster spot. I'm a foolish fool who still holds out hope that some ML free agents will be signed this offseason, so I hope they do need the space.

He looks raw still, and he only just turned 24. I would let him and Mateo battle it out for 2B next year, with the loser being the utility man.