DrinkinWithFermi

They would be upside plays. If it's a choice between another Lyles/Gibson type and an upside play, I'd prefer the upside play.

I trust Elias to find adequate replacements. He's pretty smart tbh.

I would be fine with Clevinger as the OD #3 if we also added a tantalizing arm like Cabrera to our long-term picture. Along with Kimbrel, that would be a very satisfactory offseason. Of course, cutting out all of the extra steps and just signing Sonny Gray to slot right in as our clear #1 would have been the finest outcome of all, but it's clearly not reasonable to expect Orioles ownership to invest meaningfully in a team that just won 101 games with a bottom 3 payroll and only really lacks a clear rotation anchor.

Thought about that too, if he has options remaining, I would be cool with starting him in Norfolk while the braintrust tries to fix him up. We'd still kind of need another pitcher to round out the OD MLB rotation in that case, so maybe you also trade for Bieber's final arb year or sign Stroman or Clevinger in that scenario.

Not a top org pitching prospect or anything, no, just a young arm or two that has some upside that they like. Hays and Ortiz would be doing the heavy lifting value-wise in my proposal. I'm not ready to give up on Mountcastle just yet, mostly because his ridiculous Statcast numbers have to translate sooner or later, right? I also think Santander is more integral to our 2024 success than Hays is. I think Cowser can replicate most of Hays' offense, but if Kjerstad doesn't hit the ground running, Santander's reliable 30ish HR power may be sorely missed. I would trade any of the 3 under the right circumstances though.

Excellent, that means the pricetag for short term FA bats like Turner, JDM, and Pham just went up, which in turn should mean that the trade value of Santander, Mountcastle, and Hays (and maybe even O'Hearn) just went up as well.

I dunno, man- he's put up a 6.6 H/9 and 10.1 K/9 in 197.2 career IP, and he's still got 5 years of control, AND he's still just 25 years old. Like, yeah, I know the walks are problematic and he needs some finishing work, but I think I would be cool with giving up Hays' arb 2 and 3 years, Joey Ortiz, and maybe like Juan Nunez to add that kind of arm to our organization.

The more I think about it, the less likely I think it is that they actually pull the trigger on a Luzardo trade. With Alcantara out for 2024, they kind of need him to anchor their rotation. Trevor Rogers (3 years of control) and Edward Cabrera (5 years) should be available though, especially for immediate (and controllable) help since they plan to contend in 2024. Maybe Hays, Ortiz, and a pitching prospect or two for one of those guys? It instantly upgrades their lineup in 2 spots and adds an arm or two back into the pipeline while we get a controllable young high ceiling SP and clear a spot in the OF for Kjerstad, Cowser, or Stowers to claim in ST. That seems like a much better option from a long-term organizational health perspective than overpaying for 2 years of Cease.

He's heading into his age 33 season and his Baseball Savant page for 2023 is almost all blue. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/marcus-stroman-573186?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Probably why he's still available for a 1 or 2 year deal in January and now reported to be throwing himself at the Yankees, who have apparently been ghosting him ever since. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/al-notes-mariners-white-sox-stroman-yankees.html#comment-3179928 He's a pass for me, we either need to aim higher or just give Hall the ball.

I'd probably rather just give Hall a shot at sticking as a starter than sign another #4ish guy tbh.

That is hilarious, I was just thinking about whether trading for Ray while he's still injured to try to get him for a bargain since the M's reportedly need to cut payroll would be a good move the other day. I didn't think it would actually happen IRL though. Crazy stuff.

And a floor of...*checks notes*... 2023 Dylan Cease.

I'll go with: E) None of the above

Just offer Miami something like Hays, Ortiz, Beavers, and an arm (or two) from outside of our top ~5-7 pitching prospects that they like for Trevor Rogers and bank on our braintrust fixing him instead of overpaying for the privilege of trying to fix Dylan Cease if Getz is still demanding so much that they are still "far apart" at this point. The Marlins are probably a better fit for us than CWS anyway since they want to contend in 2024 and would therefore potentially be open to splitting their return between win now and future pieces, which would in turn allow us to open up some playing time for the MLB ready guys like Kjerstad, Cowser, and Stowers.

Westburg is the biggest piece I would trade for Cease. No Cowser, Kjerstad, Mayo, Basallo, or Holliday. If Westburg+ is not good enough for Getz, he can getz lost.

Obviously not, we'd have to take Craig Kimbrel back to the store if we did that and John already threw away the receipt. We are the Baltimore Orioles after all, we simply can't go on wild offseason spending sprees like the Royals and Reds.

The true CF market is usually pretty thin and this year is no different, and Bader is very good defensively and he mashes lefties. It's a bit more than I expected him to get but probably still about right.

Honestly, I kind of wish we had signed him to that deal, maybe even tacked on a team option for next year. Why? Because: Harrison Bader vs. LHPs 2023: .299/.361/.575 Career: .262/.331/.494 That would be a massive improvement over this: Cedric Mullins vs. LHPs 2023: .233/.310/.398 Career: .229/.297/.359 A Mullins/Bader platoon in CF would have been pretty great, honestly. Oh well.

Yeah, that's a STFU and GTFO from me, dawg

Good, good...

Westburg is the most obvious trade candidate and the guy we should be shopping as the centerpiece of a package for a Luzardo/Gilbert type of pitcher. He's a stud IF with a full 6 years of control coming off of a solid MLB debut and he is pretty superfluous here in Baltimore thanks to Gunnar, Urias, Holliday, Ortiz, Mayo, Norby, etc.

If the rotation has been clearly and meaningfully upgraded, I would probably be fine with playing McKenna or Mateo in LF against lefties to start the year and upgrading at the deadline if no one else steps up and takes the job.

I think he got all the way up to like #27 or #29 on MLB Pipeline prior to losing prospect eligibility, though that may have partially been due to guys ahead of him also "graduating." Either way though, his draft pedigree, minor league performance, prospect evaluations, and solid debut definitely make him an incredibly attractive piece of trade bait, and the presence of Gunnar, Holliday, Mayo, Ortiz, and Norby makes him arguably our most obvious big time trade chip. Thanks, I felt like it needed to hurt at least a bit from an Orioles fan's perspective and also be something I would be pretty satisfied with if I was a Marlins fan, which I think that hypothetical deal accomplishes. I might even be willing to fold Baumann and the other pitching prospect into Povich if the bidding gets that intense.

Westburg was like a top 25ish prospect on MLB Pipeline so it is possible that he could be the headliner if the rest of the package is stout enough. Maybe something like Westburg, Hays, Beavers or Fabian, Baumann, and a pitching prospect they like that isn't Povich, McDermott, or De Leon? They would get a stud 2B/3B that already debuted and performed pretty well and still has a full 6 years of control as the centerpiece, plus 2 years of a solid everyday COF and a promising potential replacement for 2026 in Hays and Beavers/Fabian, an interesting arm with 5 years of control to tinker with in Baumann, and another young arm that they like to add to their pipeline- Armbruester, Bright, whoever. That seems like it would be a pretty good haul for a guy like Luzardo, who has shown a ton of upside but still has some lingering questions about his ability to carry a true rotation anchor's workload year in and year out.

I think that's probably right, but if Povich or McDermott can help us land a Luzardo type guy, who's a 26 year old TORish SP and has 3 years of control, I would hope that we would be willing to pull the trigger.