Jim'sKid26

I found this tidbit to be fascinating: “I think a lot of it is they’ve gone after guys that throw hard or have certain movement profiles," said Pontes. "And the stuff they have trained on internally has accentuated some of those traits. I think they have a knack for going after guys that have good underlying traits – it’s not always about the numbers – but guys that can develop into something better. They have consistently done that to have success.” This really fits what we've seen recently with acquisitions such as Heasley and others.

Love this post! Tread guys love their sweeper throwers. This must be where that change came from. Given his arm slot and his FB characteristics, do you think a sweeper can be effective for him? Seems to me he's under valuing his CB and CH. I'd love to think he could be a 4 pitch SP. Realistic?

Interesting guy. Texas native who was a complete stud in HIGH SCHOOL: Went 29-3 with a 1.47 ERA and 310 strikeouts during his career at Prestonwood (Plano, Tx) … helped lead the Lions to a 35-1 record and state title as a senior … went 13-0 with a 0.33 ERA, allowing only four earned runs in 65 innings of work … named to Dallas Morning News All-Area First Team in 2016 after earning third-team honors as a junior … 2016 Rawlings-Perfect Game Third-Team All-American and All-Texas Region First Team … also an all-state performer in football ... also recruited by Dallas Baptist, TCU, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Texas. Then he goes to OSU and never lives up to his potential. 2018 at OSU he goes 4-6 with a 5.96 ERA in 80 IP. He does K 79 but walks 38 and gives up 93 hits. He also hit 9 guys and had 9 WP. So he gets drafted by the Royals in 13th round in 2018 and does well in A ball in 2019 (20 GS with 8-5 with a 3.12 ERA over 112.2 IP with 120 Ks). Doesn't pitch in 2020. Then goes to AA and has another good year, in 2021. 21 GS, 7-3, 105.1 IP, 120 Ks. But 34 BB and 18 HR allowed, little bit of a red flag but he gets called up anyway for a cup of coffee and throws 14.2 IP for the Royals going 1-1 with an ERA of 4.91 with 15 hits (3 HRs) 6 Ks and 3 BB. So he skips AAA entirely his first time up to the Bigs. In 2022 he gets an opportunity in the Royals rotation. 21 GS, 4-10 with a 5.28 ERA and 104 IP. He gives up 108 H and 19 HRs, with 70 Ks and 47 BB (6 HBP). He was sent down to AAA where he did not excel; 9 GS 1-2 with 4.35 ERA. 39.1 IP with 35 H, 7 HRs, 10 BB and 45 Ks. that's when they decided to make him a RP. Baseball Savant says he throws 4 pitches: 4SFB (44.8%), Sweeper (23.5%), CB (21.3%) and CH (10.4%). Three things I get from this: 1. He didn't do much in college compared to his HS pedigree. OSU is a well thought of college program but some guys are not cut out for college. Did it hinder his development? 2. Did not going to AAA in 2022 hurt his development? He had a good year in AA in 2021 but he had missed all of 2020 to COVID and had a few red flags in 2021 (HR allowed/BB). Instead of going right into the Royals rotation in 2022 would a year at AAA have been better for his development? 3. He made a change away from a traditional slider to throw a sweeper. He had had success with the slider in the minors. You have to wonder if that was a good move for him. Just my $0.02....

I watched the September 17th with my son. We were screaming our heads off all game at the TV and so hoarse the next day I could barely talk. Pure awesomeness.

So is that what you would prefer to be called?

After watching this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hpAwMyCZG14 I'm just not certain he would fit in Balmer....

It appears to me that you enjoy the role of the contrarian. It gives you joy to pick apart another poster's ideas. I find it ironic that you would describe your responses as pithy while others find them to be troll-like. It makes me chuckle. I take no offense from your approach and appreciate your willingness to engage in the conversation. Rock on.

Jim Bowden (https://theathletic.com/5138791/2023/12/15/mlb-offseason-trade-targets/) seems to think that the O's are waiting for the pitching market to settle and then the trades will happen. He mentioned Edward Cabrera from the Marlins as being available. He seems like an interesting young SP who the Marlins apparently would trade for 3 MLB ready players. Seems like the O's could meet that demand without having to trade any of their top 5 prospects. Bowden seems to think the Rays will be in on him but the O's also match up well. Cabrera is 26 and not eligible for arb until 2026. He throws 5 pitches and misses bats. His change up is elite and his 4SFB sits 96.2 ave MPH. He had 118 Ks in just under 100 IP last year. He's the type of young, controllable SP that you plug into the #4-5 spot in the rotation and see what he can do.

Looking at the Baseball Savant data: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/grayson-rodriguez-680570?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb Grayson threw 5 pitches last year. 4SFB (49.6%), SL (14.%), CB (8.2%), CH (22.4%), and Cutter (5.8%). The 4SFB was at 97.4 mph on average but was his least effective pitch. They have his FB run value at 8% which is very poor. While his Breaking ball run value is at 77% (well above average) and his Off speed run value at 93% which is "great." Indeed, his Whiff% and put away% are FB: 24.1/16.8; CH: 28.3/18.2; SL:34.1/21; CB: 28.1/25.5 and Cutter 14.9/5.6. Seems to me like the cutter is not a weapon and should be shelved. His SL is just a great pitch. He threw it 297 times and did not give up a HR. Batters slugged 0.172 on the pitch and BA against was 0.155. Seems like he needs to throw that pitch more. Compare that to his FB. He threw it 1043 times and gave up 8 HRs, the most of any pitch. BA against was 0.342 and SLG against 0.535. If you look at the location heat map you can see why. The hottest area is middle-middle; exact where you do not want to throw a 4sFB. Also he throws a very flat FB with very little vertical movement with elite extension and velocity. He needs to throw it up in the zone more. Something I think he did much better in the second half of 2023. So I think he needs to do 3 things better in 2024: 1. Throw his SL and CH more. His SL is a weapon against RH batters and his CH is effective against LH batters. 2. Throw the 4SFB a bit less but throw it up in the zone with a focus of hitting the top of the zone consistently. 3. Shelve the cutter or only throw it rarely. This is just my $0.02. Take it for what it's worth...

How did this thread turn into a review of Brian Matusz' failed Oriole career?

I was recently looking at the Marcel projections for GRod for 2024 published in BBRef: 7-5 with 121 IP. 127 Ks and 42 BB. 8.6 H/9, 9.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. If this is in anyway accurate I think we all would be very disappointed. Considering this was his 2023 (age 23) season: 7-4 with 122 IP. 129 Ks with 42 BB and ERA+ = 95. 8.9 H/9, 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 Now many of us watched GRod have a stellar second half of the season. Projecting him to repeat his production seems like a gross underestimate. So, if we use a similarly accomplished young pitcher as an age 24 comp for Grayson, what do we see? Let's use Gerrit Cole. He was a tremendously accomplished high school pitcher who was drafted in the first round (#28) after his senior season coming out of Orange Lutheran HS in California by the Yankees in 2008. He didn't sign and instead when to UCLA. He was then taken 1st overall by the Pirates in the 2011 draft. Grayson was taken with the 11th pick out of Central Heights HS in Texas in 2018. Their prospect pedigrees are similar although Cole went to college while Grayson went to the minors. Both had great success in their respective development paths. Both are RH power pitchers who throw very hard. Grayson is 6'5" and 230 lbs. Cole is 6'4" 220 lbs. So how did Cole do in his age 23 season in 2014 playing for the Pirates in the National League before the advent of the NL DH: 11-5 with 138 IP. 138 Ks and 40 BB. ERA+ = 98 with 8.3 H/9, 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9. a solid season and a bit better than Grayson's 2023. Now look at Cole's age 24 season in 2015: 19-8 with 208 IP. 202 Ks with 44 BB. ERA+ = 149 with 7.9 H/9, 8.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. He was 4th in the NL CYA voting behind Arrieta, Greinke and Kershaw. While I don't think the extent of the improvement that Cole experienced between 2014 and 2015 is likely for Grayson, it is not outside the realm of possibility. I think few of us on here think Grayson is going to regress, barring injury. What level of production he delivers in 2024 will go a long way to determining where the O's go in 2024.

Interesting quotes: “It’s definitely interesting coming back from it (TJS), the stuff differences [and] trying to figure out my arm again. I feel like the fastball came back, it felt really good, but the breaking stuff took some time. The cutter wasn’t the same pitch it was before Tommy John. I’m still kind of figuring that pitch out. I got to a place where it was good enough. I could use it, it just wasn’t the same as it was.” “I used to throw it harder. It was a shorter, harder slider, basically, and now it’s not quite as hard. I used to throw it 88–91 [mph] and now it’s like 85–87. It still has decent movement to it, but again, it’s just not quite the same pitch that it was before I got hurt. Maybe that’s something that will come back in year two. People say that your stuff isn’t really 100% back until the year after your first year back from Tommy John.” He started 19 games and threw 96 IP for Boston in 2023. He had 9.5 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 with an average FB velo of 95.3 mph. I think a 1/$10mm contract might be worth the risk.

Thanks, @Frobby Mets Top 25 Prospects for 2023: RHP Blade Tidwell (6) - Amazin' Avenue (amazinavenue.com) This is an interesting read on him, for your enjoyment. I'm hoping the O's will try and bring in a few pitching prospects in the trade or trades they execute in the near future. Lots of upside here. A bit of an under-valued asset.

From MLB.com: "The Mets happily grabbed Tidwell in the second round and went above slot to sign him for $1.85 million. The hurler finished out the year with Single-A St. Lucie, where he made a pair of postseason starts on the club’s way to a league championship. The 6-foot-4 right-hander pushed himself up the Mets' prospect ranks by using a 94-96 mph fastball that touched 98 mph in the Florida State League -- a promising sign after the spring shoulder problems. His mid-80s slider breaks hard over two planes and instantly wowed New York officials as his second plus pitch -- one he threw nearly as often as the heater late in his time in Florida. Tidwell also works in an upper-70s curveball to give him a more vertical breaking ball and a low-80s changeup with sink. Though he had some control woes in his early days with St. Lucie, Tidwell generally has solid control of his four-pitch mix out of his over-the-top delivery and should command everything well enough to stay in a starting role. He added 20 pounds in college and could continue to tack on even more strength as he moves up the chain toward Queens, adding to the belief that there may be another jump in stuff coming." So, 1. Signed an over-slot deal as a second round pick. 2. Throws 4 pitches effectively with a FB that touches 98 mph 3. Likely under rated due to shoulder issues which he's resolved. 4. Continues to improve his control as he moves up levels in the minors. I've never seen him but he sure sounds like an excellent SP prospect. Why he isn't rated higher is a mystery to me. Seems like a guy with significant upside.

I think he can pitch multiple innings out of the BP. Thus a bit more flexible. We disagree on the comps. Is see Hall as a "three and flee" moreso than a "5 and dive" guy. I would use Josh Hader as a comp. At least in terms of upside.

I don't think it's "stupid" and I don't appreciate you calling me that. I would add another redundant prospect to get a near MLB ready SP who misses bats. Urias also doesn't have a spot on the 2024 team except to block up and coming guys who will likely help the team more than he will. Trading from a position of strength to augment an area of weakness is hardly "stupid." Also I tend to use the OH prospect ranking. I trust Tony's take much more than Baseball America. Tony has Beavers at #8, Chayse at #9, Horvath is #10 and Norby at #11. I wouldn't trade Chayse as we need pitching but I'd be more than willing to trade Beavers and Horvath to get a high end SP prospect.

So Urias and Beavers for Tidwell is an overpay? He's a young projectable SP who misses bats and has 4 pitches rated above 50. Man, you really over value our prospects.

Square peg in a round hole? Hall belongs in the bullpen where he has shown he can succeed. He is very valuable there and gives the team some flexibility. I'm not sure I agree that he has that much upside as a SP.

I'm not sure I would want anyone on their 40 man but they have a RHP in AA named Blake Tidwell. He's there #10 prospect on MLB.com. Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50; 11-6 over two levels in 2023.with a 3.57 ERA. 116 IP and 153 Ks. Maybe a package that has Urias plus 1-2 prospects in the 8-10 range gets it done?

@Tony-OH when did the original board start? I think I remember reading it during the 1997 season but that could be a hallucination. I was a first year cardiology fellow at NNMC Bethesda then and didn't sleep much. I have distant memories of late nights spent in the hospital scanning the OH for Orioles info. I had a different screen name back then. Oh, Happy anniversary, @Frobby

Boom! Give this man ^^^ any stuffed animal he wants! @wildcard it must seem odd to watch the Orioles actually make personnel decisions that both strengthen the club and create additional room for improvement. They've never done it before but it actually might just be the right way to run an organization. After all, ME just won the MLB Executive of the Year. He must be doing something right.....

If you are not the most confident athlete on the planet you will not succeed at the highest level. Self-belief is absolutely mandatory if you are going to be the best. I hope Gunnar thinks he is the best player in the league. It's the only way he will become the best player in the league.

Yes. If they pitch less innings. That means the starters have to pitch better and pitch more innings.

Make the team better. Use the opportunity created by the wealth of prospect capital to trade for a difference maker. You are in the window to take a shot. Make the team better.

These conversations always assume perfect health and that is a major flaw. Luck plays a significant role in whether your team stays healthy and a significant injury to an elite player can be devastating. It's one of the things that is not controllable. The Orioles were, for the most part, rather fortunate with injuries in 2023, The Mountain notwithstanding, I hope they can continue to do so.