Jim'sKid26

Deep Depth. Lots of matchup possibilities within the limits of the rules. Several guys who can spot start. What's not to like? I think Kimbrel is a one inning only closer who will not likely throw 3 days in a row. Gotta have some guys ride the AAA shuttle so you can accommodate that.

Could they both pitch about 100-125 IP and turn into one TOR starter. Imagine if they were paired together as the Fifth SP option. Wells starts and goes 1-2x through the lineup. Then Hall comes in and goes 1-2x through the lineup. If they both average 4 IP per start and they both start 32 times in 2024 they would both pitch 128 innings. Because they throw with different hands the opposing manager can't stack the lineup against either of them. It could work. 254 IP is more than anyone went in a very long time.

This is a predictable and safe signing. I don't hate it but I was hoping for Hicks. Hicks was not as safe as Kimbrel but I liked his upside more.

EBJ He's an elite defender who I think will hit . Speed kills and he's got it in spades. Mullins will eventually age out of CF and EBJ is already able to play an elite Defensive CF now.

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Luzardo. Left handed. Better control and command. Longer commitment . Younger. I think he's likely to be a bit more expensive, in prospect capital, than Cease but not prohibitively so.

I ask this question because we all are gnashing our teeth about the playoffs and the O's futility in 2023. An interesting thought is that teams in the Playoffs are much more reliant on the HR to score runs than in the regular season. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2023-mlb-playoffs-home-runs-are-leading-slugging-teams-to-victory-in-the-postseason-not-small-ball-and-bunts/ This article tries to spell this out. For what it's worth, homers and the ability to out homer your opponent in the playoffs is a recipe for success. Ironically, the Rangers-Os series notwithstanding. If you look at the playoffs in 2023 around 53% of runs scored were from HRs, compared to ~41% in the regular season. I'm not sure having a big bopper in the MOO for the O's would have made a difference in 2023, but I gotta ask the question.

Do you think the 2024 team, as it is likely to be configured, is powerful enough to win a championship?

For context, the 2023 Os scored 807 runs which was 7th in all of MLB. They averaged 4.98 R/game. Only the Braves (947 ), Dodgers (906 ),Rangers (881 ), Rays ( 860), Astros ( 827) and Cubs ( 819) had more runs. The O's had the third most 2Bs (309), Rangers had 326 and Boston (go figure) had 339. O's were below average in HRs at 183 (league average 196) with ATL leading the MLB at 307. The Dodgers were second at 249! So do the O's need to score more runs in 2024? After all they were a 101 win team scoring 807. Do they need more power? What should be the offensive strategy moving forward knowing with what you know about the likely makeup of the team? Is the oft stated adage that the O's need a MOO hitter still true? Is that player an external addition or someone from the farm? There has been much on this board in recent days about pitching. Rightfully so IMHO. But does the team need another hitter? What is the thought process?

Ah, the message board paradox. Who is crazier? The one who refuses to acknowledge reality or the one who keeps pointing out what is real and expecting the one who refuses to acknowledge it to do so?

Well, a couple of things: 1. The pitcher's middle name is William. 2. The author's last name is spelled Stevenson 3. Let's hope the O's aren't signing up for another "Strange Case of Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde."

I hope you are wrong.

Interesting. He's 30, will play 2024 at age 31. Average FB velocity was 97 mph last two years. 34% GB% last year which is about his lifetime average. 13.24 K/9 last year which is well above his lifetime average of ~10Ks/9. ERA (if you care) last year was 3.10. Lifetime = 4.64 (OMG!!!) Over his 8 year career he has not been good until this last year. (Not a small sample size). He made $1.75M last year, so he likely will be inexpensive. Seems about right for what the O's will spend.

ERA? Really? Lifetime ERA for a back of the BP reliever? Who just turned 27? OK. He doesn't have an elite lifetime ERA. I think I'm ok with that. Just for comparison, Pete Fairbanks, Tampa's closer, has a lifetime ERA of 3.21. He any good?

From Fangraphs: "Possibly the best right-handed reliever on the market, Hicks’ sales pitch is simple: He might have the fastest fastball ever to reach free agency. But his case is further bolstered by his 2023 season, which might have been his most complete season yet statistically speaking. He made 65 regular season appearances between the Cardinals and Blue Jays with a 3.29 ERA, 3.22 FIP, and 3.36 xFIP, striking out a career-high 28.4% of batters faced. He allowed just nine barrels on 168 batted balls (5.4%) and an average exit velocity of just 86.7 mph – good for the 89th percentile league-wide. On those balls in play, 58.9% were on the ground, a 96th-percentile clip and yet somehow below his career average. As it turns out, strikeouts and soft groundballs are a potent combination." It goes on to address that he walks too many guy, as I have already addressed, before concluding:"Hicks has had his own ups and downs, but he’s an undeniable weapon for the back end of any bullpen." Now if you want to argue that he is asking more than you are willing to pay, fine. I get it. But don't tell me he doesn't have elite stuff. He does what you want a back end guy to do. He gets Ks and GB.

Weren't you the guy earlier in this thread admonishing other posters about small sample size?

Look at the stats. He misses bats and he gets ground balls. His LIFETIME GB% is 60%. With the exception of his rookie year he has averaged more than 9 Ks/9. Yes, he walks guys and that's why he won't get Hader money. But he's got elite stuff and he's only 27 years old. He is coming into his prime.

Where do you see very good starters getting 4/40 on the free agent market?

My point is that he has a great sinker. He gets lots of Ks and lots of GBs. With a good infield defense GB are turned into outs much more frequently than if you have a poor infield defense. Which is better, St. Louis or Baltimore? I don't know. Does it really matter?

I think Rodriguez has more value for a number of reasons. but he's a starter. If the question is how do you fortify the bullpen and you don't want to spend that much on a closer, Hicks is a reasonable, option at 4/40. If you want a high end reliever you have to pay, that's my point. If you want to settle for a lesser pitcher in the bullpen then spend the money elsewhere. Elias has articulated a need at SP and the back of the bullpen. Eduardo would be a reasonable choice for SP. But he's not a reliever.

I think he pitched rather well last year and he does throw hard. So you would rather sign an inferior pitcher because you don't want to pay the going rate for a good one?

My point is that the reliever market in recent years has gotten expensive as teams have come to value high velocity relievers. Guys that throw high 90s and even 100 are viewed as much more valuable than they were 2-3 years ago. Hicks has elite stuff. He throws a 100 mph sinker that would be huge at OPACY with the O's infield defense. I think you are missing the impact of the market on the cost of elite relief arms and I think you are under valuing Jordan Hicks. This is my opinion, for what it's worth.

So, if Bautista was healthy and a free agent what would you offer him?

I'm not certain I understand why you think he is "very overrated," and 4/40 is hardly a contract that handicaps the franchise moving forward. He just turned 27 so you are paying for age 27-31 (likely prime) years. He has, arguably, the best pure "stuff" of anyone on the market. He doesn't cost a draft pick. And he has been reasonably durable the last 2 years. I think this is what the market is for a reliever of his caliber. He should be a significant target for the O's IMHO.

What are the chances he does that in 2024? I think it is highly unlikely. I genuinely hope that I am wrong because that would be an enormous benefit to the team, but he is very unlikely to be that durable or that effective.