Jim'sKid26

Is this a guy you take a flyer on? If he's healthy he could be dominant. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/matt-barnes-throws-for-scouts.html "Time will tell whether Barnes can ever recapture the form he showed from Opening Day through early August in 2021, though with a shoulder injury and notable hip surgery separating present-day Barnes from that peak version, it feels like something of a long shot. But even if Barnes never gets back to fanning more than 40% of his opponents, there’s a middle ground where he can be an effective late-inning reliever. "

@Tony-OH, if the emphasis were primarily on defensive capability as opposed to offensive matchups, who do you think wins those respective battles?

Well said, as always!

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-the-brewers-return-for-corbin-burnes/ Whether you like Fangraphs or not, this is a good read, IMHO. I like this paragraph to sum up the current Brewers situation: "This trade marks the unceremonious end to the most recent era of Brewers baseball. Brandon Woodruff’s late-season injury, the departures of Craig Counsell and David Stearns, and finally this deal remove many of the main characters from the past half decade of the franchise. Conversely, the wave of young players who are just getting their big league footing should make the Brewers a fun team to watch scrap for a wide open NL Central crown. Of all the projected members of the Brewers’ starting lineup, only Christian Yelich and Hoskins are over 30 years old, and Adames is the only other starter over 27. William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, and Ortiz make up a formidable young core of hitters whose careers are just getting started." I think the Brew Crew could still be a contender in the NL Central.

I'd like to see a serious run at a couple of trades for relievers. David Bednar from Pittsburgh was mentioned in trade rumors last year. He's the kind of guys the O's should target. He is using his four-seamer more to great success. In 2022, hitters hit .243 against his fastball and that’s dipped to .181 in 2023. He’s also getting hitters to chase a higher percentage of the four-seamers thrown outside the zone. In 2023, his O-Sw% has climbed from 34.4% in 2022 to 41.2% in 2023, which put him in the 99th percentile. The Pirates just signed Chapman so they might be willing to listen to an offer for Bednar. He will be costly, however. Pittsburgh will want a ton of talent for him. Also, Bryan Abreu from Houston. He's not a closer so he might not be as expensive as some others but he is very good. His ERA for 2023 was 1.94 and his WHIP is 1.08 which is improved from 2022. He also had 90 Ks in 65 IP, good for a SO/9 rate of 12.5. Last season he had 88 Ks in 60.1 IP.

By who's estimation? Moraga is a nice town.

If the Brewers are holding a fire sale as is reported by several outlets, I hope the O's can target Devin Williams. He was the NL reliever of the year in 2023. He is owed $7M for 2024 and has a club option at $10.5 M for 2025. He makes the bullpen much better and he is not likely to be anymore expensive than Burnes, IMHO.

He is actually a really big deal at St. Mary's College where he went to school. They are retiring his number and he is in their Hall of Fame, just so you know! https://smcgaels.com/news/2024/1/25/baseball-base-teahen-burnes-to-have-numbers-retired.aspx

Thoughtful extensions to players who are early in their career seems like a reasonable strategy for this club. Burnes is gunning for a Gerrit Cole level of compensation or even more. I'm not convinced that is good value for a team that has multiple young players who make up it's core. It will be very interesting to see how the pitching prospects mature over the next 2-3 years. It will also be fun to watch Burnes pitch this year.

So Burnes will be 30 at the end of next year when he is a FA. He will play all on 2025 at 30 as he has an October Birthday. So what would be a reasonable extention foe him? Comps: 1) Gerrit Cole, Yankees: 9 years, $324 million (2020-28); Age 29 season to begin, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS. 2) Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals – 7 years, $245M (2020-26); Age 31 season, had not won a CYA, 3 time AS 3) David Price, Red Sox, 7 years, $217 million (2016-22); Age 29 season, one CYA, 5 time AS 4) Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers, 7 years $215 million (2014-2020); Age 26 season, 3 time CYA, one MVP, 4 time AS 5) Zach Greinke, D-backs, 6 years, $206.5 million (2016-21); Age 32, one CYA, 2 GG, 3 time AS 2025 best case scenario for Burnes (he is both an AS and wins the CYA in 2024) Age 30 season, 2 CYA, 4 time AS. So I would speculate that a reasonable offer to Burnes for a FA contract next year would be right around Strasburg money: 7 years and $250 M. Any thoughts on that?

This is exactly what Elias needed to do. I am overjoyed. Great move. I hope everyone stays healthy.

If you want to rag on an MLB GM the guy to focus on is Chris Getz. What's this dude thinking? Fangraphs just did a review of their farm system and it is pretty bad. Their #1 prospect is a AA SS who is unlikely to stick there and likely plays an average 3B. They have 2 other SS in their top 10 at A ball and Rookie ball who both have FV < 45. Only 2 of their 10 guys in the top 10 are at AAA and their both pitchers. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chicago-white-sox-top-27-prospects/ He needs to trade for a few high value prospects to start a rebuild. Why in the world is he holding on to Cease? You can give him a pass if Cease stays health and brings something back at the deadline but why take that risk. Obviously we don't know what Elias is offering for Cease but if Getz gets nothing or very little for Cease he's made a big mistake, IMHO.

It would appear the O's are kicking a lot of tires. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/blue-jays-orioles-have-shown-interest-in-domingo-german.html

Pardon my ignorance but what is it about this guy that makes you feel he will be successful in the AL East? Looks like he has a good slider. 2SFB seems a bit underwhelming. What am I missing?

You are correct on Tucker, my mistake. I also forgot that Framber was a super-2. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/payroll/ is a little confusing that way. Thanks for the correction.

So does the recent signing of Josh Hader make it more or less likely the Astros look to move Framber? They are currently estimated to have a payroll of $239 MM for 2024. Valdez will receive $12.1 MM for 2024 and then be a FA in 2025. He will earn the most out of all of their Arb eligible players. They have also not attempted to extend Bregman, Altuve, Tucker or Kendall Graveman. All of whom will also be FA in 2025. Seems like they might need to shed a little salary.

In general, when a 4SFB has arm side run it indicates a mechanical flaw. This is not always the case but it might be in Grayson's case. Most elite pitchers don't want arm side run on their 4SFB. The most typical flaw that causes this is opening up too soon which is common when you overthrow. Grayson admits to that in the article. My suspicion is that he got away with it in MiLB because of his elite velocity. Guys were starting their swing early and he would beat them up and in without throwing the pitch in the zone. In the MLB, hitters are much more selective and scouting reports are much more detailed. He can't get away with not locating his 4SFB. Hence the desire to eliminate the unpredictable and uncontrollable movement. Now, why the 2SFB? Well maybe he throws it in breaking ball counts to LH hitters? If he can tunnel it with his SL release point and have it break in the opposite direction it can be a very impactful pitch. Down and in to RH batters is also a great way to get GBs. We will just have to see how he uses it.

My sincere hope is that there is a very special place in hell for all the people who scam families with children with disabilities.

As opposed to 160ish games at 1B?

^^^^^^^^ What she said. Awesome post.

Well, the gold standard for catchers might be Pudge Rodriguez who debuted at 19 and was a GG/AS at 20. But I don't think Basallo stays at C.

Very interesting, thanks for sharing. I'm going to guess and say Grayson is working with this guy in Ft. Worth. https://teamapec.com/trainers/connor-green/ One has to wonder how much influence Chris Holt et al have on this decision to throw a 2SFB. I found these two quotes to be at odds with one another. "As a result, Rodriguez is tinkering with adding another fastball to his repertoire. This offseason, Rodriguez has begun to throw a two-seam fastball — unlike the cut of a four-seamer, Rodriguez’s two-seamer has more arm-side run that could jam a right-handed batter." "When Rodriguez overthrows his four-seam fastball, the pitch’s movement actually mirrors that of a two-seam fastball. That is, once the four-seamer leaves his hand, it has arm-side run. That made it difficult to control." Seems a little strange that you would choose to throw a pitch that does the exact thing you don't want your overthrown 4SFB to do. My suspicion is there is more to this story.

Is his next blog post going to be directed at the White Sox front office. It takes two to tango...

Hmmm... Sounds like you would be paying for 2021-22 Alcantara without any guarantee he's going to fully recover from TJS. He was rode pretty hard by the Marlins and broke. For a youngish power pitcher, he has had a substantial workload the last 3 years. How many bullets are left in that gun? And can he replicate the freakish combination of velocity and movement he had prior to surgery? Should the O's risk $38.3 MM to find out?

So Bradish actually throws his 2SFB (Sinker) harder than he throws his 4SFB; 94.4 mph vs. 95.0 mph. Thats a little unusual. Cease did throw about 30 sinkers in 2022 (he didn't throw any in 2023) and threw it about the same speed 4SFB= 96.8 vs 2SFB= 96.5. Of note, his 4SFB in 2023 was 95.6 mph. Seems like he could throw the Sinker if he wanted to.