2001OriolesFan

Mateo got off my Sxxx list when he fixed his batting problem (the down and away pitch) and started getting a running batting average near 0.300 and added 0.030 points to his year-to-date BA. Now i don't want to move him and Gunnar can play 3rd. Now, I'm on his fan-boy list.

He is a defensive outfielder replacement, which we already have in McKenna. He is another fast baserunner, where there is a role.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rule-changes-for-2022 In addition, Rookie Qualifications moving forward will remain the same as the 2021 season. Because 2021 was the first full season without significantly expanded September rosters that allowed up to 40 active players, the determination of rookie status no longer excluded September days toward the threshold of 45 days. Like 2021, the Rookie Qualifications will read as follows: “A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he had (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League Club or Clubs during the Championship Season (excluding time on the Injured List).”

depends also on how deep we might go in the playoffs

Well the first thing is to rebuild to put a good starting team on the field. We have that and a good pipeline for position players. We neglected drafting pitchers, so other than rodriguez and hall, there are not "knock you soxs off" candidate. So the recent trades helped restock that a bit. That is going in the right direction. ... ... What I see (hope I see) happening is that the O's are waiting until the wave of superior position players is developed and ready for the MLB team. Then they will discard/trade some players (Mateo, Odor, Urias) and bring in Gunnar, Vavra, Westburg. Stowers, Cowser, Haskins will come in and we could see Mullens, Hays or Santader dealt in a package for a veteran pitcher.

[1] First of all, Mancini was NOT traded for Phillips. Phillips was not involved in any trade, he was basically DFA and then withdrawn and exchanged to some money with the O's. He can be let go without much of a loss. [2] It is a long season, and players, especially outfielders wear down. Phillips is fairly fresh and can take (eat?) innings and play good defensive outfield with a strong arm. He has a low BA, but a respectible 0.250 or so at Camden Yards- which is strange because that doesn't show up against other lower division clubs. He is also a bubblely positive personality, that might fill the minor contribution to moral that Mancini made there AND he is veteran with playoff experience. For my two cents I would have brought up Stowers or Cowers. Maybe the coaches (and the scout who are watching them) know of some holes in their ability to recognize or hit certain pitches and they need more time to work on that, rather then coming up and floudering. Not the sort of thing you advertise. [3] I don't understand what posters are talking about when they say that the O's are not bringing rookies up because of "service time". I think that is false now. Looking up MLB service time provides the following: " There is something about being voted in the top 2 of rookie of the year, that shouldn't pertain. Right now if we bring up a player, they will NOT get enough game time to accur a year of service.

Yep. Kick the sxxx out of the Jays and we will be good.

Nevin can play 1B

Hope there are not many errors. Teams to be be played (dated AM 8-7-22) Rays………….1st place teams Yankees-.9 games……...Astros..-6 games Rays…………..2nd place teams……..Brewers.. 2 games……..Jays.. 8 games….Cleveland..3 games Rays…………..3rd place teams……..Rangers..3 games…….. Rays…………4th place teams………..O’s – 3 games/……...KC- 4 games…. Angels-4 games….Marlins—2 games… Jays………….1st place……..Twins 1 game…….Yankees 7 games…… ………………2nd place……..Cleve. 3 games…… ……………….3rd place……..Cubs 3 game…...Rangers 3 games…….. Rays 8 games…… Philly 2 games ………………..4th place……….Angels 3 games……..\\ ………………..5th place……...R sox 6 games… O’s 15 GAMES Seattle …………….1st place…...Yankees 3 games ……………..2nd place…..Cleveland 6 games……Braves 3 games…...Padres 3 games ……………...3rd place…..Rangers 6 games…….white sox 3 games…. ………………4th place…..Angels 9 games…….Royals 3 games….. ………………5th place…….Oakland 9 games…….Nats 2 games…..Tigers 7 game.. Orioles …………….1st place…...Astros 7 games…...Yankees 3 games ……………..2nd place…..Jays….15 games…...Clevaland 3 games…. s ……………...3rd place…...Rays 3 games…….white sox 3 games…... ………………4th place…. Pirates 1 game……. ………………5th place…. Red sox 10 games…...Cubs 1 game…..Oakland 3 games….Tigers 3 games

Well lets develop a gross level expectation of what the O’s have going forward to try to get a WC game. Let’s compare the schedules of the top candidates for the 3 wild card spots: Rays, Jays, Seattle, Cleveland and the O’s. We could do this by the Vegas odds (which is distorted by their need to make money by changing the odds and controlling the betting), various “power rankings” or complicated rankings of W/L percentages. I’m keeping it simple. What is the schedule for those teams against the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and (to ranking teams in their ow division. (As of Sunday morning), those teams future schedules looked like this for the number of games they have to play. ……against …....1st place…….2nd place…...3rd place…..4th place….5th place. Rays……………….15…………..13…………….3…………..13………….10 Jays………………..8……………..3…………….16………….18…………..9 Seattle……………...3…………...11…………….9…………….12………15 Orioles……………..10…………..18…………..8……………...1………...17 Cleveland………….8…………….12…………...9…………...13…………..7 The O’s don’t have the easiest schedule. I think it would be worth while to break the above table up around the idea of how many games would be hard to win, versus okay or likely to win. The condensed version uses just games against 1st and 2nd place in the division teams to get a measure of halmerit. Rays……………...28 Jays……………….11 Seattle…………….14 Orioles…………...28 Cleveland………….20 Right now (Monday ) the Rays are up +2,0 game, the Jays and Seattle are tie at 0 games (making the WC). The O’s and Cleveland are both 2 game behind. It looks like Seattle and Cleveland are both in a better position to get to the WC. The ones we could catch (to get top 3) would be the Jays. We have 15 game against them. (see following self-replay for the list of future games against all opponents). The WC season is really very clear. Hopefully Odor can punch out a half dozen or so Jays, to help out.

He has enough speed to be considered a possible center fielder. (but slow for the O's !!). He has an upbringing with batting instruction and a super eye at the plate. Not especially a power hitter BUT a lot of walks and a good BA. This is the guy we want leading off!. Minor leagues: AVG .312....OBP .429....OBS .878............... ......... The OBP is very good. Although high batting numbers in the minors come down when a player gets to MLB, his lifetime minor league OBP of .429 would be leading the Orioles: Rutschman.= 0.355....Santander= 0.340.....Mullins = 0.322.....Hays= 0.317 .................... Vavra has only played a few games so there is not a lot of data on his OBP. Right now it is 0.571. ..............................https://www.mlb.com/orioles/stats/on-base-percentage?playerPool=Garrett Allen

A lot of the questions and speculation is probably answered by the player description in MLB orioles prospects. The key characteristic of Vavra is that he is had a very very good eye for pitching and knowledge of how to work for a superior OBP. He also has good speed and I look at him as a future lead off batter. He has good speed, + but not as fast as the standard ++ Orioles outfielder or the Mullens/Mateio +++. Enough speed to have some consideration as a CF OF, but that isn't going to happen here where there is a different standard!. Read the rest of the player description to appreciate what they say about his upbringing and development. He looks like just the guy to start wearing down an opposing pitcher and having a high OPB to get things rolling in the first inning. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/terrin-vavra-679631 Follow topic Go to topic listing Next unread topic Who's Online 82 Members, 0 Anonymous, 138 Guests (See full list) 2001OriolesFan JimGinSP AnythingO's StatusDC tinman emmett16 olddogger Cheetos RZNJ NedFromYork The Bird Brooks The Great Tbone83 Remember The Alomar Moose Milligan justD MGH5208 OsFanSinceThe80s TINSTAAPP joelala CharmCityHokie Anonsnides mlrhode paulh Upper Deck John ChuckS waroriole Chelsea_Phil Keygans SteveA CanadianOriole Daddy-O's Hallas Filmstudy WarehouseChatter oriolefan1035 Gurgi Just Regular oriole Gofannon Frobby terpoh Pickles MurphDogg spiritof66 Orioles Jim SilverRocket Jammer7 DoobyDoo Mooreisbetter27 DonEZ scbalt52 Alasdaire ArtVanDelay Spy Fox sportsfan8703 OriolesMagic83 InsideCoroner Orioles0615 Can_of_corn swerda jkrout hutchead dtk9119 Tom13206 jabba72 Mendoza Line spleen1015 7Mo bluedog ORIOLE33 vab Bahama O's Fan DrinkinWithFermi RarityFlaherty glenn__davis HbgOsFan Number5 Triple Crown wyobird Ridgway22 Natty Replies 40 Created 18 hr Last Reply 1 min Top Posters In This Topic Frobby 4 posts Tony-OH 3 posts RZNJ 3 posts Filmstudy 3 posts Popular Days Aug 3 2022 41 posts Popular Posts Filmstudy 18 hours ago Get on before you can't catch up! Very patient on Tuesday night with a line drive single to left and 3 other patient... Frobby 12 hours ago The AB he had with two outs in the bottom of the 9th in Sunday’s loss in Cincinnati was the most impressive. All... OsFanSinceThe80s 17 hours ago I'm a fan and Vavra needs to be starting more with Odor getting benched. report this ad Posts We are going to the playoffs By Remember The Alomar · Posted 3 minutes ago I see you have the blessing to never have encountered a certain thread by a certain OldFan#5... We are going to the playoffs By Just Regular · Posted 3 minutes ago If you want ~20 more than 44 days from a certain Important Player, now is the decision point. I'll just throw him at DH since Urias is fielding well. 48 hours from now there's nothing but strategery... We are going to the playoffs By Frobby · Posted 3 minutes ago There is so much of the season left. Anything could happen. 57 games to go. I saw Buck take over a dead team that was 32-73 and go 34-23 in the final 57. I saw a gritty overachieving Mike Hargrove... We are going to the playoffs By Tbone83 · Posted 4 minutes ago This thread has more phallic references than any OH thread in recent memory. We are going to the playoffs By Filmstudy · Posted 6 minutes ago I looked it up and if you have played in the minors, even if not on the 40-man roster by 8/31 you are still good to replace an injured player for postseason roster. Adalberto Mondesi was added to... Cade Povich 2022 By CharmCityHokie · Posted 6 minutes ago Elias and Matt Blood must both drink out of the same jug of sauce, because the way they talk about their minor leaguers sometimes makes you think we're going to have an all-star at every single... We are going to the playoffs By Brooks The Great · Posted 7 minutes ago I want to see Odor DFA'd. I don't expect it to happen, but I would be ecstatic to see it. Vavra staying in to play 2B after his pinch hit double was big because it indicates Hyde/Elias are comfortable letting... Popular Contributors Week Month Year All Time 1 Tony-OH 172 2 Moose Milligan 129 3 Frobby 125 4 Sports Guy 91 5 RZNJ 77 6 interloper 68 7 MurphDogg 61 8 OsFanSinceThe80s 58 9 Can_of_corn 47 10 RVAOsFan 47 Popular Now 21 We are going to the playoffs By tinman Started 1 hour ago 312 Weds August 3rd Let’s get this Sweep By sportsfan8703 Started 4 hours ago Unread Content Mark site read Home Orioles and Baseball Orioles Talk Terrin Vavra Bandwagon IPS Theme by IPSFocus Theme Contact Us Facebook Twitter Youtube Copyright Orioles Hangout 2022 Powered by Invision Community

Seith Johnson has been ranked as our OVERALL 8th best prospect. He is our third best pitching prospect. He was the 40th player drafted in 2019. Read a history/description of him at [ https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/ }. _(Click on his name and a window will pop up). An excerpt from that contains: I am happy with this guy alone for Mancini. I can not understand all the bashing of this trade by people calling him just a low level A level pitcher. Why don't those people do a few keystrokes and get some information? The second guy in this trade is Chayce McDermott and our #11 overall prospect. He is a 4th round draft pick (suplemental round) of the Astros. He has some development work to do, and is less certain to get it all together. He is our 4th highest pitching prospect and was ranked just ahead of Bauman and Vavara.

Yea. There are many casual fans, who see a taste of improvement and success, and instead of appreciating it, they act like they are entitled to have Orioles WS tickets sent to their house for this October. They want an immediate success, the moment they hop on the bandwagon, and piss on anyone who doesn't see it that way.

Nevin is the backup 1b

The pecking order at 1B right now is Mountcastle, Mancini and Nevens. There are no other 1B in sight. Mayo and one of the prospect outfielders will be the next 1B up.

Mancnini will reqire $10 million next year. That doesn't fly.

Earlier today (7-30-22), the Mariners traded for starting pitcher Castillo, from the Reds. Castillo is a top 50 starting pitcher- one preseason SWAG had him listed as #25. https://www.sportscasting.com/ranking-top-50-starting-pitchers-2022-mlb-season/ We are most likely going to have to add 1 or 2 top of the order #1->>#4 pitchers, to go along with Hall, Rodriguez and Means. This could come from a FA or a trade . An article [https://www.mlb.com/news/seattle-mariners-trade-luis-castillo?partnerId=zh-20220730-665108-mlb-1-B&qid=1026&bt_ee=qAiEdTpN%2Bcx0XPpI91QIA2glF4XyFlz%2B0yUz8lZ%2FSxw7EiNf8x8kIbCCWzahwI5W&bt_ts=1659186641810] has the exchange costing a bundle. One list of our prospects is as follows. [ https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/kyle-stowers-669065 ]. 1 Grayson Rodriguez 2 Gunnar Henderson 3 Colton Cowser 4 DL Hall 5 Jordan Westburg 6 Coby Mayo 7 Kyle Stowers 8 Heston Kjerstad 9 Connor Norby 10 Cesar Prieto 11 Mike Baumann 12 Terrin Vavra 13 Joseph Ortiz A similar exchange might be Henderson & Westburg & Cowser with pitcher Bauman as the lesser player. This sounds like too high a price, since our players are from a higher ranked farm system and the Mariners are buying high to try to get deep into the playoffs this year. Never the less, giving up a haul like that would really hurt. Where do you think we would go to bring in such a starter?

One thing to keep in mind is that these 9 members of the 25 man roster came to us because we were at the head of the waiver wire/ rule 5 line. That avenue to players is now closed. Many other members of the 25 man roster came to us because we were picking very high in the first and second rounds of the MLB draft. That avenue to players is now poorer by a player a year. Now we are living in another world, which is where the perennial superior teams live. We are going to have to live a bit on our backlog in our well stocked farm system,,, live quite a bit on more risky high ceiling draft picks in lower rounds,,,, make use of our upgraded international organization, and do sensible trades of some of our high end performers. ,, I think the casual, come-lately-back fans are not going to understand that.

It has been so disheartening to see him striking out time and time again , waving at a down and away pitch. It looks like the pitcher has a remote control that turns on "zombie" mode in his head and he just can't resist. There are signs of him laying off of that ball more often, so maybe that is enough of an improvement. The scouting report probably says to feed him two of those outside of the strike zone- now that often mean he is "starting" an at bat with a 2-0 count and getting the pitcher behind and getting more fastballs to hit.

The Orioles have aquired/drafted up the middle position players and have had luck and successful results. Right now we have a weapon in Mateo at SS. He is a great defensive SS and his speed on the bases adds a dimension in disrupting the opponents defenses, with his base stealing and ability to take extra bases. But he has a flaw, which is his .200 level batting average. If he can improve his pitch recognition, stay away from the down and away pitch and get his BA to .230, he would be a good starting SS on most teams. We should be happy. Waiting on deck , at AAA is Gunnar Henderson, He is considered a "plus" prospect and is ranked the overall #5 prospect in MLB. There is talk of him having superstart potential. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ & https://www.mlb.com/prospects/top100/gunnar-henderson-683002 ). We should be happy to have him waiting in the wings but they have not been willing to pull the trigger on moving him up at least this year because Mateo is doing good and blocking him. What a problem to have. Just drafted is Holliday . The 1-1 pick in the 2022 draft. He is 18 and will still get bigger and stronger. I look at these three players as having about these values as scouting reports HIT POWER RUN ARM FIELD OVERALL AGE Mateo 35 50 80 60 60 55 28 Henderson 55 60 55 65 50 60 21 Holliday 60 55 60 55 55 60 18 Not much to chose between them. I expect Holiday will improve as he matures and may wind up a 65 or 70 by the time he reaches the big leagues. (There are also, Prieto, Wesburg & May)o What do the O's do with this problem? Holliday is obviously 2-3 years away from MLB, so we can forget about him for a while but he does make other SS movable in a trade and not necessary to keep as insurance. We could bring in Henderson as a 3rd baseman- except that Urias is having a break-out second half of the season at 3B. Do we bring in Henderson at 2B, get Henderson used to MLB? Use Vavara and Westburg as utility infielders for at least a while? Package Urias and Mateo in late 2023 for starting pitching and go with Mayo, Henderson, Westburg for a while? Another aspect for right now is that there are a lot of good SS's potentially available for trade right now, so it might be a buyers market. https://www.mlb.com/news/2022-trade-deadline-chip-for-all-30-teams?partnerId=zh-20220726-660406-mlb-1-B&qid=1026&bt_ee=j1j7NevC%2Fzm5fIHCVVVQzj4mPcM9waP1LZKA566P%2BfL6cvPyKwER4JifOEjP7vsC&bt_ts=1658846539692 That article shows Peraza (spankies), Rosario (Indians), Leon (Astros) Maurecio (Mets) and Turang (Brewers) might be available. Not the best market if you have thoughts of moving Mateo now.