2001OriolesFan

Think 2nd tier and servicible college pitcher with an underslot offer.

Vavra has been working at 1B a lot this spring.

Bring in high ceiling pitching prospects. Go for guys who are in the 5-15 range for good farm systems who have a high ceiling. Trade one of our starting outfielders and a good backup young IF ior Mateo/Urias as well as a back up but servicable starting pitcher for the guy. We can do 3 of such trades and get an extra top of the rotation guy in 3-4 years out of it and the three roll of the dice.

MLB baseball has him as a 50 arm and fielder. Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60................ His arm earns fringy to solid grades but he compensates with a good internal clock and a quick release. He has the fast hands and feet to play at least an average shortstop." ".....Volpe enjoyed a breakout 2021 season, homering 27 times after adding muscle to his frame. He didn't match that performance last season -- he outright struggled during a 22-game introduction to Triple-A, striking out 30 percent of the time -- thereby delaying his debut until sometime next summer. Volpe still projects as an above-average hitter who can contribute in each of the slash line categories. Defensively, he'll have to continue to prove that he can make all the plays at short despite a substandard arm. It's possible that he'll eventually end up at the keystone..."https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/new-york-yankees-top-prospects-2023-anthony-volpe-leads-list-jasson-dominguez-at-no-3/

Rhodes and Haskins are on the Bowie roster as of mid-Feb.

I say lets see what comes out of spring training. Most likely he starts along with Mullins, Santander, Stowers and McKenna on the roster. That give us the same 5 OF as we ended with last year. That leaves Cowser at AAA as the replacement/sub to come up late in the season (like Henderson) if we find a good trade for one of the 5. That leaves Beavers and Kjerstad to transition to AAA when Cowers comes up.

Well Hays IS one of the newer Orioles. 2016 draft , 3rd round. Cups of coffee in 2017, 2018 and 2019. He has been a regular on the 25 man roster and starter for two years. Decent bat, 260's type hitter with a lot of power. He bats right handed, but with enough power that he can hit it over the Great Wall of Balitmore. ( https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=804158347283222 ) Very good defense in left field with a strong accurate arm that slows down opposing base runners. He is on a 1 year contract. He could be a great trade chip. The Orioles have Stowers,(L), Cowser(L), Kjerstad,(L) knocking on the door of MLB some time in 2023, AND Beavers (L),Haskins, Rhodes(R), and Fabian.(R) in the pipeline. ..................... I can imagine him being bundled with one of our "surplus" +scouting score, short stops (Mateo, Ortiz, Westbug) and a "2nd wave OF or infield prospect) for a #1, #2 type pitcher prospect or veteran.

Pile up high ceiling, very young pitching prospects for development or as part of a package.

Well, people who know more than us do not agree. Henderson grades as a 50 in fielding and is 210 pounds, (bound to get heavier has he matures more) and Ortiz grades as a 65 in fielding and weighs 175 pounds. ,,I do NOT see Hendeson having more range than Ortiz , ,,,,,, Holliday and Westburg grade as a 55 in fielding and everyone else in the top 40 prospects are 50. .....https://www.mlb.com/prospects/2022/orioles/.......................................... Remember these mean : 70= plus plus,,,,,,, 65,,,,,,,,,,60= plus,,,,,,,,,55= above avg........50-= average. Ortiz is the best fielding SS candidate we have in our system. Mateo graded out as a 50 field (average) as a 26 year old in San Diego, but with a incredible 80 speed. ( cf https://www.prospectslive.com/scoutingreports/jorge-mateo , ) AND yes he covers a lot of ground but does flub some routine plays. "Field: Fluid athlete in the field that has familiarity with 2B, SS, and OF. Best asset is his speed, which allows him to cover a lot of ground; has plus range in both the infield and outfield. In the infield, he moves well laterally and looks comfortable at both 2B and SS. Plays with bounce and shows a willingness to charge the ball and lay out in either direction. He's still green in the outfield, and needs to work specifically on his routes and reads; both are currently below to fringe-average. As with every other facet of his game, he's aggressive and can make some difficult plays. He's probably an average fielder wherever he ends up, but has some additional upside due to his footspeed and overall athleticism. Grade: 50" Batt? grade 45? (more like a 40) If we can trade Mateo and replace him with Ortiz, we will be a better defense. Plus Ortiz, after getting over shoulder injuries, came alive at the plate the second half of 2022 in AA AND AAA ball. He would likely be a 50 scale (average) hitter in MLB.

What did that expert say last year? Why so you expect he would guess better this year?

How about our improvement is going to come from our loaded farm system which is just starting to come to MLB. It is NOT going to come from spending tens of million dollars for a few big name, aging players. I guess the author hasn't checked to see that we have 4 new and improved pitchers coming in 2023, as well as expected improvement in last year's starters.

Kjerstad is our future #5 hitter and 1st baseman.

So, people seem to vote for having committee and not 3 aces to win the short series.

With our crowded AL East group of nasties, our road to the post season IS going to go through the WC round for the next 2-3 years. We should use this week's results to learn, how we HAVE TO structure our starting pitching staff. ... Question: which way to go for our starting pitcher profile- especially the top of the order? six 10 game winners ,,,, or,,,, three 20 game winners... Over a 162 game season, both sets get you 60 wins and you might argue that having six pitchers is some advantage because there is more rest and less danger of a single sore arm costing a lot of wins. BUT, if you ability to continue in the post season depends on how you do in a THREE game series- the three higher quality pitchers is what you want. It does not look like we have a bunch of lights-out starting pitchers in the pipeline, so we will have to pick them up from the FA market or expensive trades.

People question why we brought in this veteran slugger, who didn't really slug, get on base a lot or play lights-out defense. Why did we bring him in, why did we play him so much, why did you continue to give him playing time, even after it was clear that he was not going to "get it" and have a revival??? The reason is that we need some FA pickup or trade for a big middle of the order bat to carry a load for 2-3 years. Such a veteran would be really scared of coming to the O's because they might not get the opportunity to get over a slump when they came, because we have so many excellent rising stars who also need playing time. We picked up Jesus and proved that we would stick with a veteran. They don't have to worry about being thrown to the curb and damaging the rest of their career. Look for a left handed big bopper, who will drop balls onto the flag court.

Love the guy when he was at Bowie. With Mateo, Henderson, Westburg and Holliday all ahead of him at SS, I don't know how we are going to be able to use this guy. Maybe trade Mateo and an OF for a starting pitcher and have a progression to Henderson @ SS,,,,,,,, to Ortiz SS/Henderson 3rd,,,,, to Holliday at SS....... ??

This GM thinks that Mayo and Kjerstad are the upcoming candidates for first base. Both are a little slow for an Oriole outfielder and both have the reputation of being big bats. It may take a while for them to appear (2024?) and in the mean time Noby or Santander might be the backup.

Soccer has that type of rule, but they have real fights with people injured. Baseball fights have rules about actually hitting somebody. Ocassionally somebody is really mad and throws a serious angry punch. Most of the time it is like a vigorous pillow fight, with people looking for somebody to "hold them back". Once in a while, somebody takes advantage of the paddy-cake phony punches to actually suckerpunch one of the actors.

Well I went the night before. One of the best games of the year. One thing I haven't heard about but saw. Santander hit a foul ball out of Orioles Park. I was in section 45 to the left and behind home plate. The ball went out of the stadium to the left of the lights above the 3rd deck in right field. Looking at a diagram of the ball field ((see https://duckduckgo.com/?t=lm&q=orioles+park+dimensions&iax=images&iai=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.andrewclem.com%2FBaseball%2FDiag%2FCamdenYards.gif&ia=images ) It disappeared at 318 feet. Not landed- that was at the top of it's arc. If he were fair, it would have hit the wharehouse.

Just to point out. Gunnar played second base and make two errors. On one he got the ball stuck in his glove, trying to speed up to turn a possible DP. On the second he fumbled a ball. Gunnar got benched. ...... Last night (4th game of the jays series), Odor fumpled a DP ball and just threw to get the out at 1st base- just like Gunnar did. Is he going to get benched? Later Odor let a bouncing ball go under his glove, because he just didn't get his glover low on the ball. Worse than Gunnar's miscue. Is Odor benched? Somehow Odor gets a pass on any mistake he does. In this series he has (at least twice to my recollection) provided a 3rd out K with runners in scoring position. how about cutting down your swing and trying for a line drive? Nobody notices. Seriously, Odor is good entertainment and that does help bring fannies into the seats. The 0.200 hitter problem? OK for a great defensive SS if you have 3-4 reliable big boppers on the team. Not okay for a 2nd baseman.

I think we need to look at the prospects list to see the future at 1B. There are two great candidates for our future 1B player who also have plus power, size and slows. Corby Mayo is 6-5 has a loud bat. Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 40 | Arm: 70 | Field: 45 | Overall: 50. The arm (70 !) says third base, but the field (45) says maybe not. The Run=40 says forget about the outfield but the power (60) suggests firstbase. The other good prospect for a future 1st baseman is Heston Kjerstad, 6-3. He missed a year or more of development due to a medical condition and the Covid pandemic. Power of 60 (you want that from 1B, but a run of 45, which is not up to "Baltimore Orioles outfielder speed". The FIELD grade of 50 sounds better to me than Mayo's 45. He missed 2 years but has jumped several levelsin 2022 and I would expect we could see him at AA and AAA by the end of 2023. Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 60 | Run: 45 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50 I like the idea of big boppers at 1st base and that is the place to put the slower players but more power full hitters. So that leaves what to do at 1st base in 2023. Right now Nevins is the backup 1Baseman, and the O's are starting to tinker with Santander as a potential backup. Nothing wrong with that. Nevins does not look like a long term answer and I expect he will not be on the 25 man roster in 2023. I think that plan should be to hang on the Mountcastle for 2023, get Sandtander some reps as a backup and then evaluate Mayo and Kjerstad as replacements in late 2023 and 2024- if they can push out Montcatstle. .... No harm in giving the funny glove to Stowers for a look-see.https://www.mlb.com/prospects/orioles/

I never said he looked like a fool. I used that data to show that new MLB players often need adjustments after they came up. Adley learned quick, but he is a generational talent.

https://www.mlb.com/news/adley-rutschman-orioles-not-worried-about-slow-start

Maybe we almost concede some games in order to have our very best lineup to assure a win in other games. When I was a kid, two cousins and uncle from WilkesBaare would come to visit us in NJ, stay over in order to take a bus to NYC and see (taking me) to see the Yankees, Giants or Dodgers. I was a Yankee fan. They always complained that the bottom 2/3 of the American League (no divisions back then) would trot out their worst pitchers for the Yankees, since they were probably going to lose anyway. They would save their best for playing teams that they could beat. So the high Yankee BA, HR and wins was fed 'unfairly"...... Are the O's using the same techinque? Which is better for 3 games for your recor? ...... Chances to win of 95%,95%,40% or 55%, 55% 55%? (( 0.250/3.00 vrs. 0.165 /3.00 )) ........

Here is a caution about expecting our rookies to come right in and set the world on fire with their batting. I wonder if the following things are in play. While you are in HS, college, A, AA, AAA you are facing pitchers who have maybe two pitches that they have mastered and who have control issues. So you can lay off obvious bad pitches and nail the ones that are grooved or don't break like they should. Then there is the big jump to MLB, where the pitchers are much different, and it takes a few years or months to catch up. .... In MLB, these days, any weakness in the batter is immediately analyzed and exploited. Trouble hitting a certain breaking ball or zone is analyzed from film by multiple geeks on each team and what is successful gets amplified by everyone picking it up. Sequence of pitches is also studied and applied. No more "I wonder what this guy likes to hit and what he has trouble hitting". It takes a while for the young batters to catch up- and some never fix their weaknesses. Remember how rookies have some early success and then their BA sinks. We have a lot of young players going through this. Remember how easy it was to strike Mateo out in the first half of this year? He was like a zombie, swinging at down and away pitches well off the plate. He fixed that over the all star break and has been batting around 0.300 since then. Rutschman looked like a fool his first few weeks and was completely baffled by MLB changeups. We see some cryptic comments about our players in the high minors that talk about too many strikeouts- they keep them down until they learn, rather than bring them up to fail. I believe that such weaknesses will be forwarded from the minors (other teams have minor league teams as well as we do) to the majors , so they can be exploited from the get-go. It is a reason to bring them up late this year to get MLB seasoning and find out their weaknesses and start correcting them for next year. It is probably something that can not be "taught" so much as actaully be "learned" by doing. Just don't get upset about the learning curve.