Radical Realignment

[Just Regular]

Here’s what I’m hoping for once 2019 becomes the focus.  For as long as Bundy’s health and performance warrant, I think a re-tool is possible, and don’t want to give up on a season with a viable cornerstone.

Sisco 75% playing time – let’s see how the arm holds up with regular run.

Harvey – go for that Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, hoss – no important innings for you in Baltimore this summer.  Re-climb those national prospect rankings, and see you come May 2019, once Year 7 clicks in.

Left Side of Infield – Machado and Beckham, go back where you belong.  This is my Machado white flag as it’d likely foreclose any narrow retention path.  Whether Indians, Braves or Dodgers, 3B is better for his summer trade value.  Tim Beckham is a shortstop.

Outfield – Mullins moves Jones soon.  Today’s Statcast Outs Above Average leaderboard has Jones as one of only two CF’s (Blackmon) already down to negative 2 on the season.  I’m hoping he can show this year’s contenders he can be plus in a corner by July 31^st.

Mullins is going to bat 9^th and catch flies forever and ever – I think MLB pitchers are going to eat his lunch for awhile whether he has half or all of 2018 in the minors.  Let’s get him used to seeing second decks, MLB breaking stuff, and all the info we can about whether his glove can carry his bat.

Trade Targets – I think more than rotation help we need hitters who can threaten a .350 OBP.  My personal wish list has Alex Verdugo as Thing 1 and Yandy Diaz as Thing 2.  A new Markakis and Milligan – they’re my 1-2 hitters in front of Mancini/Schoop/Sisco in next year’s lineup.  I am okay investing all 4 of Machado, Britton, Brach and Jones, and think that group has a shot to carry both.  We can probably get someone else interesting from one of those teams if Britton is good rather than meh.  In Dodgers negotiations, maybe we help them with salary as they absolutely will stay under cap to reset before Kershaw uses his opt-out and the final price of Dodger for life is agreed upon.

Mancini – he won’t like it, but I want him spending some of this summer trying to beat the DH penalty.  He gets 1B when Davis goes away, but I think Davis is a better fielder than him for 2019.  Verdugo, Mullins, Hays, Davis is my OF/1B defense.  I’m ready for Mountcastle to start trying to learn how to beat the penalty too.

Davis – field 1B, and start learning the Matt Adams role.  Once Ryan Mountcastle is out-hitting you, Mancini goes to 1B and you start pinch hitting for Mullins and Caleb on Sisco’s off days.  Trumbo can do that to start out the year.

2019 Arb Guesses – Schoop $12M, Gausman $9M, Beckham $6M, Bundy $4M, Joseph $2M, Givens $2M

2019 Salary Structure – I get $109M for 23 players

Verdugo LF, Diaz 3B, Mancini DH

Schoop 2B, Sisco C, Hays RF

Beckham SS, Davis 1B, Mullins CF

Bench – Trumbo, Joseph, Santander, Mountcastle

Rotation - Bundy, <Free Agent A>, Gausman, Cobb, Cashner

Swing – Harvey, Castro

Bullpen – Scott, Bleier, O’Day, Givens, <Free Agent B>

Free Agent A – About $15M/year for Pomeranz or Corbin, or less for Gio Gonzalez

Free Agent B – About $12M/year for Doolittle or Cody Allen (or Zach Britton?)

25 guys, $136M.  In June’s draft we get another bite at the Bundy/Machado apple.

[Aristotelian]

Beckham isn't really a SS either. He is already marginal there and may get worse dealing with age and injuries. If you want to get the most out of Beckham, right move is probably to trade Schoop while his value is high, then do total rebuild around (ack) Davis and the pitchers. Of course, I'm not sure Beckham is a guy to build around. If we could somehow get rid of Trumbo and get some legitimate infielders, you could also move Beckham to LF and Mancini to DH. I think Beckham could thrive as an OF. 

I certainly like Yandy as a possible get. I just wonder if Cleveland would give him up. Not sure about Verdugo. We already have some OF prospects. Where we really need help is right side infielders who can hit.

Another big need is elite bullpen arms. Who is our next closer? Maybe Scott but as a lefty he would be more valuable in an Andrew Miller role (if he progresses).

 

[Just Regular]

Yu-Cheng Chang is a well-regarded Indians shortstop prospect behind Lindor - he could easily be in talks. 

I agree bullpen may be thin if Harvey makes it as a starter, and will be watching the 3rd pitch with interest this summer, but have mostly set my expectations for something between Chris Ray and his dad.  Unless we reduce 2019's payroll below $120M (which we might if it is a more aggressive rebuild), I think we'll be able to afford a good reliever to compile saves, and Givens, Harvey, Scott have enough talent to be a good setup crew.  Style-wise, maybe Doolittle is a good Scott mentor, as a high hard stuff type.

This assumes Machado, Britton, etc. become two more players the major league team could pay the minimum to and use without embarrassment next year.

[weams]

22 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Here’s what I’m hoping for once 2019 becomes the focus.  For as long as Bundy’s health and performance warrant, I think a re-tool is possible, and don’t want to give up on a season with a viable cornerstone.

Sisco 75% playing time – let’s see how the arm holds up with regular run.

Harvey – go for that Eastern League Pitcher of the Year, hoss – no important innings for you in Baltimore this summer.  Re-climb those national prospect rankings, and see you come May 2019, once Year 7 clicks in.

Left Side of Infield – Machado and Beckham, go back where you belong.  This is my Machado white flag as it’d likely foreclose any narrow retention path.  Whether Indians, Braves or Dodgers, 3B is better for his summer trade value.  Tim Beckham is a shortstop.

Outfield – Mullins moves Jones soon.  Today’s Statcast Outs Above Average leaderboard has Jones as one of only two CF’s (Blackmon) already down to negative 2 on the season.  I’m hoping he can show this year’s contenders he can be plus in a corner by July 31^st.

Mullins is going to bat 9^th and catch flies forever and ever – I think MLB pitchers are going to eat his lunch for awhile whether he has half or all of 2018 in the minors.  Let’s get him used to seeing second decks, MLB breaking stuff, and all the info we can about whether his glove can carry his bat.

Trade Targets – I think more than rotation help we need hitters who can threaten a .350 OBP.  My personal wish list has Alex Verdugo as Thing 1 and Yandy Diaz as Thing 2.  A new Markakis and Milligan – they’re my 1-2 hitters in front of Mancini/Schoop/Sisco in next year’s lineup.  I am okay investing all 4 of Machado, Britton, Brach and Jones, and think that group has a shot to carry both.  We can probably get someone else interesting from one of those teams if Britton is good rather than meh.  In Dodgers negotiations, maybe we help them with salary as they absolutely will stay under cap to reset before Kershaw uses his opt-out and the final price of Dodger for life is agreed upon.

Mancini – he won’t like it, but I want him spending some of this summer trying to beat the DH penalty.  He gets 1B when Davis goes away, but I think Davis is a better fielder than him for 2019.  Verdugo, Mullins, Hays, Davis is my OF/1B defense.  I’m ready for Mountcastle to start trying to learn how to beat the penalty too.

Davis – field 1B, and start learning the Matt Adams role.  Once Ryan Mountcastle is out-hitting you, Mancini goes to 1B and you start pinch hitting for Mullins and Caleb on Sisco’s off days.  Trumbo can do that to start out the year.

2019 Arb Guesses – Schoop $12M, Gausman $9M, Beckham $6M, Bundy $4M, Joseph $2M, Givens $2M

2019 Salary Structure – I get $109M for 23 players

Verdugo LF, Diaz 3B, Mancini DH

Schoop 2B, Sisco C, Hays RF

Beckham SS, Davis 1B, Mullins CF

Bench – Trumbo, Joseph, Santander, Mountcastle

Rotation - Bundy, <Free Agent A>, Gausman, Cobb, Cashner

Swing – Harvey, Castro

Bullpen – Scott, Bleier, O’Day, Givens, <Free Agent B>

Free Agent A – About $15M/year for Pomeranz or Corbin, or less for Gio Gonzalez

Free Agent B – About $12M/year for Doolittle or Cody Allen (or Zach Britton?)

25 guys, $136M.  In June’s draft we get another bite at the Bundy/Machado apple.

A center fielder's glove can never carry his bat. No matter what the weird metrics might say. Defensive WAR is really a mirage. Center field is an offensive position at the major league level.

[orioles119]

With the atrocious start, I'm all about the back of the jersey now.  I'm rooting for individuals rather than team performance at this point.  We are at 1988 levels, so I'm all for benching the players that won't be a part of the team long-term (Jones, Trumbo) and see what we have in the OF calvary (Stewart, Mullins, Hays), Mountcastle once he bounces back from injury, and bring up Wynns and let Joseph go.  The rotation is actually respectable outside of Tillman, so I would call up Harvey to take his place once he builds up arm strength and then see what can be had for Cashner at the deadline and bring up Akin.

So, as far as I'm concerned I'll be like Manny Machado and worry about the back of the jersey as the team looks to the future, however bright or dim it appears.

[glenn__davis]

Good post.  Needs a different title - I thought it was the thousandth thread on realigning divisions so I didn't read it at first

Regarding Harvey, I wouldn't worry about any service clock games.  Just think it's not worth it with pitchers with the injury risk, particularly one like him who has already had surgery.  When he's ready, call him up and start using those bullets at the MLB level.

I'm all about getting the young guys in here and seeing fresh blood, but it needs to come when their development dictates it, not to patch holes at the MLB level.

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, orioles119 said:

With the atrocious start, I'm all about the back of the jersey now.  I'm rooting for individuals rather than team performance at this point.  We are at 1988 levels, so I'm all for benching the players that won't be a part of the team long-term (Jones, Trumbo) and see what we have in the OF calvary (Stewart, Mullins, Hays), Mountcastle once he bounces back from injury, and bring up Wynns and let Joseph go.  The rotation is actually respectable outside of Tillman, so I would call up Harvey to take his place once he builds up arm strength and then see what can be had for Cashner at the deadline and bring up Akin.

So, as far as I'm concerned I'll be like Manny Machado and worry about the back of the jersey as the team looks to the future, however bright or dim it appears.

Jones and Trumbo could bring back something in trade, if they get hot. Jones is actually hitting decently. He is on pace for a typical .270/.740 season.

[Just Regular]

23 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Good post.  Needs a different title - I thought it was the thousandth thread on realigning divisions so I didn't read it at first

Regarding Harvey, I wouldn't worry about any service clock games.  Just think it's not worth it with pitchers with the injury risk, particularly one like him who has already had surgery.  When he's ready, call him up and start using those bullets at the MLB level.

I'm all about getting the young guys in here and seeing fresh blood, but it needs to come when their development dictates it, not to patch holes at the MLB level.

Spot on.  I titled it thinking about the hope we will quickly see Machado back at 3B and Jones out of CF, which would be pretty radical for Buck, but then it just spiraled into everything.

I was 100% with you on Harvey when I felt like we would have anything to play for, as I penciled him in for 2 of the 9 wildcard game innings.  But a 2018 fringe benefit of writing off is he can try to develop the change in Bowie.  I'd rather not have MLB hitters tee off on the third offering.  I think his fastball and breaking ball will enable him to do at minimum Mychal Givens-type things anytime his health is there, even if he can't finish off a starter's repertoire this summer.