Tony-OH

Darrell Hernaiz Pos: 2B/INF Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20 2022 Level: A/A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 35/50 Game Power: 35/45 Raw Power: 45/50 Run: 55/55 Defense: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: Utility Ceiling: 2nd Division 2B What we know: Asked to repeat Delmarva after non-descript season there in 2021, this 20-year old infielder did well enough to earn him a promotion to High-A (Aberdeen) after just 32 games and onto AA (Bowie) for the last three weeks of the year. The right-handed infielder brings about average tools across the board but no one carrying tool to hang in his hat on. He does show good contact (9.9% in A Ball, 10.7% in High-A swinging strike rate), low K rate (15.9% and 16.9%) along with a solid line drive rates (17% and 23.8%). He still doesn’t show a lot of pop though he was starting to show some ability to impact the baseball with a .228 ISO in Delmarva. He hit surprisingly well in Aberdeen (Carolina League) slashing .305/.377/.456/.832 with 12 doubles and 5 home runs in 255 PAs. He can struggle at times against sliders away. Defensively the Orioles played him all over the field but he doesn’t have the arm strength to play SS on anything but a part time basis. As he’s filled out he’s also lost some range so 2B or maybe 3B if his power develops are better bets if he stays on the infield. Not only is his arm not that strong, it’s not terribly accurate either. He's an above average runner who stole 32 out of 36 attempts but is not a burner out there. He relies more on reads and jumps than pure speed. What we don’t know: As he’s filled out a bit he’s been able to impact the baseball more, so the question is will that continue? He’s shown decent plate discipline and good contact skills, will that continue translate as he gets challenged more at the upper levels. Defensively, will he find a position to call his own on the infield, and will the organization give him some looks in the outfield to give him more versatility. What we think: Hernaiz reminds some of a Ramon Urias type and that seems like a good comp if things go right for him. While he doesn’t have a real weakness, he also doesn’t have that one tool that you can wish upon for him to become a major league regular. Saying that, he’s young, and got his first taste of AA last year, so don’t overlook him either. He’ll most likely start next season at Bowie playing all over the diamond.

It's silly to go just by minor league performance when you have new draft picks. You have to consider their scouting reports coming out of college and ceiling when putting them on the list. If Wagner and Hernaiz are each available in the draft this year, who do you think is getting more money? It's Wagner and it's not all that close. Wagner has a better hit tool, better power tool, and better defense tool.

Exactly. I put very little into their pro debut numbers unless they are shocking good or bad, and even then they get put in with a grain of salt. Wagner does have an upside of everyday power hitting 3B. That's much better than a utility profile of guys like Hernaiz and Bencosme. Wagner is a legitimate 2nd round pick and if his breakout last year in college was real, there is nice upside here. The system is pretty solid when I can rank these guys 12-15. I could have swapped Beavers, Fabian and Wagner around.

Mayo also hits the ball consistently harder and farther than Westburg and is what, three years younger? I'm going to stick with my guy!

For his doubters, in case you want to see what impacting the baseball looks like, I give you Coby Mayo's 2022 Highlights.

Starting player on a playoff caliber team.

Means had an uptick in stuff, particular the changeup and a few extra MPH he gained over an offseason. Obviously some guys are able to develop late for whatever reason and that's what happened with Means. Wells and Lowther had better stats up the minor league system and were considered better prospect when Means was in the system. Clearly, his development was not expected. Prior to the changeup, I thought he was a bubble 5th starter type and didn't have the left on left breaking ball to move effectively to relief. So in my mind, he's not a guy who surprisingly did better with his stuff at the major league level. He's a guy who developed better stuff as he was on the cusp of making the major leagues. The hope is that Rom can do the same thing, because he has rally struggled with the changeup and doesn't have the velocity to get away without one at the major league level.

I have zero issues with you having an opinion, but you have a combative style with anyone who doesn't think every Orioles prospects is fantastic. Frobby and I said "slight disappointment" based off our expectations.

Why does it bother you so much if people don't share your unbridled enthusiasm over an Orioles prospect? Cowser did some good things in 2022, but his inability to hit lefties at all is a concern for a full time player and that skyrocketing K rate to get to his 19 homers is a concern for me. I still think he's a prospect, I just think his year was a little disappointing overall due to the K rate and lack of hitting lefties.

You are right on Cowser. His strikeouts rate to get to his power is worrisome as well as his inability to hit left-handers. His heater at Bowie skewed very mediocre stats at both Aberdeen and more worrisome, at Norfolk where he was a K machine. There are things to like about Cowser though, but he was a slight disappointment for me as well as I expected a high OBP, low K guy with occasional pop and ended up with a guy with a very high K rate for a guy who struggled to get to his power away from the Eastern League. Still a top-10 prospect in a very stacked system due to his ability get on base, but yeah, if you had very high expectations for him like I did after his debut, I can see how he was a slight disappointment overall.

As an Orioles fan, I'm with you. Honestly, we don't always know what a guy with look like after TJ so who knows. Maybe they work with him during his recovery with a good change up grip. I wish the fastball wasn't as true, and that does give him a fairly low floor, but he's a nice arm to work with and I think that's what Elias was going for in his return for Mancini.

Who are the Orioles 2022 #17 and #18 Prospects?

Seth Johnson Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th): 24 2022 Level: A+ Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 50/55 Curveball: 40/45 Change: 30/40 Slider: 50/60 Command: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: Reliever Ceiling: #3 starter What we know: Acquired as a key piece in a three-team Trey Mancini trade, this hard throwing righty was already on the Injured List after undergoing Tommy John surgery that will keep him out for most of next season as well. The 6-1, 200 pound Johnson was drafted by Tampa in the 1st round (40th pick) of the 2019 draft after being converted to a pitcher in College due to his arm strength. Johnson was raw, but had a fastball that touched 99-100 MPH in college. Last year before the injury, Johnson sat 94-96 while touching 97. While he can get some swings and misses up in the zone, his fastball is pretty true and got surprisingly barreled up by High-A hitters too often when he didn't get it into the upper portion of the zone. He’s one of those pitchers that get a lot of swing and miss (13.7% K rate and 17.7 Swinging strike %) while also getting barreled up too often (31% LD rate). His slider, which can vary in speeds from 80-85, is his best pitch and his strikeout pitch. He uses it well low and away, but because of the vertical movement, he can use low in the zone pretty much anywhere across the zone and against left-handers. His curveball has similar shape than his slider, but comes in at 72-75 MPH but was definitely his 3rd pitch. While he has thrown a change in the past, he didn’t throw many in his seven starts, not even to lefties. When he needed an offspeed pitch to lefties his pitch was the down and in slider to them. While his two offspeed pitches play, it would be nice to see him add a usable changeup to help him defend himself better against lefties who slashed .303/.395/.697/1.092 off him. While some publications had Johnson as the 4th or 6th best Tampa prospect and called him a mid-rotation prospect, there are concerns about his fastball getting barreled too often, lack of changeup, and the fact he will be 24 years old by the time he pitches again and has just 27 innings above A ball. What we don’t know: What will he look like when he returns from TJ surgery? When he comes back, will the team continue to let him start or will they try to move him to the pen to advance his development to the big leagues by moving him to the pen? If he starts, can he find a useable changeup that can help him defend against lefties? What we think: He was already a fairly raw pitcher when he got hurt so he’s lost more development time so when he comes back, it will be interesting to see how the Orioles continue to develop him. Johnson has a good arm, but his fastball reminds me of Kyle Bradish a bit without a ton of life nor without a lot of spin. His slider can be a special pitch at times and can miss bats, but he'll need to command it better an find more consistency. In his seven starts this spring, Johnson looked a lot more like a future reliever than starter, but it’s hard to know what he will look like when he comes back. If his velocity returns, and he can develop a useable change, he does have a mid-rotation ceiling, but there’s a lot of ifs in there to make that ceiling.

Max Wagner Pos: 3B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20 2022 Level: FCL/A/A+ Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 45/55 Raw Power: 60/65 Run: 40/40 Defense: 45/50 Most Likely Future Role: 2nd Division third baseman Ceiling: 1st Division 3rd baseman What we know: A draft-eligible sophomore who exploded on the prospect scene when given the opportunity to play every day after starting the year as a reserve at Clemson. This relatively short, stocky (6-0, 215) right-handed hitter has above average bat speed and relatively short stroke to generate mostly pull, plus power. Saying that, there were questions by some scouts on his ability to hit plus velocity in the upper portion of the zone and some swing and miss overall, especially on sliders away. In his pro debut, Wagner showed little power in his debut though he did get on base slashing .250/.403/.438/.841 in 62 PAs wit Delmarva. His K rate (21%) and swinging Strike rate (9.2%) at Delmarva were fine and his 14.5% Bb rate was above average so there were no red flags in his initial stats. Defensively Wagener has an above average arm and moves well enough to be a solid defensive 3B. Some even believe he could play 2B at the professional level, but with below average foot speed and with shifts being taken away, 3B is his future position. What we don’t know: How will he handle good velocity that will become more common at the upper levels? Was his sudden jump in power a breakout, or just a heater against sub-par college pitching? What we think: Wagner reminds us a bit of Connor Norby as a hitter and we saw what he did in his first full professional season. The good news is that Wagner can legitimately play 3B defensively so if he’s able to get to his game power, he could be Norby without defensive concerns. Wagner should start next year in Aberdeen but should be advanced enough to get some AA time before the year is out.

I'll be honest, I'm going to need somebody to use there "Just Regular" decoder ring to let me know what I was asked?

Nice moment for the young man. As for his scouting report. 89-91, CB and ch. Low bonus money.

Added 2022 pro highlights to his profile in OP.

I was able to see him more as a pro and watched some of home runs and realized he has much better raw power with the distance and EV information that I didn't have before. Unlike some other places around the net, I will adjust my grades even if it makes me wrong the year before. I prefer to try and give the best information as possible with the information available at the time. Fangraphs have him still listed at 45 Raw Power potential.

It's not an exact science and I've always said the higher the player gets in system the better I feel about the grades. I wouldn't say they are guesses though. They are projections and sometimes players change or develop so the projections change.

It really just comes down things change when I get more information or players develop more. I didn't hear or read one thing from anyone that thought Norby had that kind of pop. Now it seems like he made a jump so I moved up his raw power.

Weird, he didn't include Lowther and Wells minor league stats either in this "analysis".

Frobby answered it pretty good. The reason why I wanna know pure raw power is because I want to know what a player is starting with when it comes to the ability to impact a baseball. Not all players can get to it in games, but I do believe that is a skill that some players develop so the more you know about raw power, the more you know about game power potential.

I think as an outfielder, we need to see how he can play with major league park upperdecks. Once he can establish that you can add to his defense. But he's a plus defender.

Who are the Orioles 2022 #15 and #16 Prospects

Jud Fabian Pos: OF Bats: R Throws: L Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2022 Level: FCL/A/A+ Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/45 Game Power: 45/55 Raw Power: 60/60 Run: 60/55 Defense: 60/65 Most Likely Future Role: 2nd Division center fielder Ceiling: 1st Division center fielder 2022 Pro Highlights What we know: The Orioles finally got their man in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft after the Red Sox grabbed him before they could in 2021. Fabian did not sign last year and ended up back in Florida where he showed good power (24 HR) along wit the ability to draw walks, but he hit just .239 after hitting just .249 the year before as a junior. The good news is he absolutely tore it up offensively in his first taste of pro ball, slashing .333/.455/.615/1.070 with 19 BBs and 21 Ks in 99 PAs across three levels. Fabian felt he was able to relax as a pro vs the pressure of playing in the SEC, but he did a pretty good job of staying off those high fastballs that he struggled with at times in college. Saying that, there is swing and miss to his offensive game and while he beat up mostly A Ball pitching, it remains to be seen how he’ll hit upper-level pitching that will exploit any weakness like high fastballs more often than A ball pitchers do. The other good news is he’s a legitimate defensive center fielder even if he doesn’t have that pure speed you typically look for. He’s get very good jumps and has a plus arm, so even if he does play some corner, he has plenty of arm to be effective. What we don’t know: How will he hit upper level pitching? He hunted fastballs at times so can he hit good upper level offspeed pitches? What we think: Fabian is one of those guys that is tooled up, but has two years of low averages in the SEC that worries some scouts. Even though he was a senior, he didn’t turn 22 until September so he’ll play most of next season at 22 as well. His first full minor league season next year should answer some of these questions about his bat against good offspeed pitches and high fastballs. He should start the year in Aberdeen and it would not surprise us if he ends the year in AA.