Tony-OH

I'm hoping to have access to them soon so I don't have to recreate the wheel. I'm still writing others (now offline to ensure this doesn't happen again) so I really rather not have to rewrite those two.

Drafting: A Use of technology and Analytics: A Development: A- Trades: B Waivers analysis: C+ International Signings: C (so far) Minor league talent scouting and analysis: C Major League talent acquisition: C Using Educational standards that comes out to 2.9 So B- for me.

Added links in his profiles to his 2022 highlights and home run highlights. If you aren't pumped about the future with this kid, you are not an Orioles fan. lol

Trust me, due to the issue my service providing is having and their awful customer service, I'm thinking of ditching the whole regular site portion and posting everything in here. Thanks for the kind words as well.

Nooo, really??

He was handled strangely during that time, including getting that major league start when he wasn't pitching great, but I'm fairly certain he was experiencing some of the dead arm that pitchers sometimes go through at mid season. Even when he was in the majors, he wasn't throwing as hard as we've seen him throw earlier in the season. I think next spring we're going to see that 97-99 guy. Now whether he can maintain that over a season with a starter's workload is another question.

Uggh, I just had a long reply wiped out by an inadvertent mouse click. To summarize, I agree that transfer/release is as important or more important than pure arm strength on many throws. The other thing to consider is that Urias' max velocity of 87.3 is just .4 MPH below the 50th percentile for 3B. In other words, when he needs it, he's about average.

Who are the Orioles 2022 #11 and #12 Prospects?

Gunnar Henderson Pos: Third baseman/SS Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 21 2022 Level: AA/AAA/Maj Tools (current/future value) Hit: 50/60 Game Power: 50/60 Raw Power: 60/65 Run: 60/50 Defense: 50/60 2022 Highlights 2022 Home run Highlights What we know: No minor league player took a bigger jump in prospect status than Gunnar Henderson did in 2022. Starting the year off in Bowie (AA), Henderson looked like a completely different player at the plate from the year before, slashing .312/.452/.573/1.025 with 8 HRs and 13 2Bs, while drawing 41 BB with 38 K and a very low 8.3% swinging K rate in 208 PAs. That got him promoted to AAA just three weeks shy of his 21st birthday. In Norfolk, Henderson continue to hit slashing .288/.390/.504/.894 though his K rate rose a bit and his BB % fell. He did however find some success for the first time against southpaws slashing .253/.333/.460/.793 against them in 99 PAs, though with 39 Ks and only 2 home runs. That led him to get promoted on August 31st to Baltimore where to no ones surprise, hit a home run for his first major league hit in his first major league game. He would hold his own against big league pitching slashing .259/.349/.440/.788 with 17 BBs and 34 Ks. His 92.4 average exit velocity was 4 MPH over MLB average and his 9.8 barrel % and 53.7 hard hit % were well over major league averages. He also showed to be a plus runner putting up 91st percentile sprint speeds and surprising a few infielders with infield hits. Defensively, he also made gains cutting down his errors at both shortstop and particularly at 3B where he started to get more playing time as he moved up the chain. He has good hands, solid quickness, and a strong accurate arm from both SS and 3B, but looks more well suited for 3B than SS. While he does have the current quickness to play shortstop, as he continues to gain weight and get bigger as he matures, third base will be where he ends up and should be a plus defensive 3B when it’s all said and done. What we don’t know: Henderson answered most of the questions anyone could have about him wit the only one left is how well he will hit left-handers. He did improve his hitting of southpaws in AAA and considering the jumps he made in 2022, it would not surprise us if he closes that platoon gap significantly over the next few years at the big-league level. He can struggle with breaking pitches and offspeed pitches at times, but we expect those adjustments to continue next season What we think: Henderson is pretty much universally considered one of, if not the top prospect in all of baseball and it’s easy to understand why. He has an advanced feel to hit, is not afraid to see a lot of pitches, and is just starting to fill out his power. When you add in his speed and defense, he has become a five-tool budding superstar. He’ll start 2023 at either 3B or SS with the Orioles depending on offseason moves.

Grayson Rodriguez Throws: RHP Age (as of Jun 30th) : 22 2022 Level: AAA Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 65/70 Curveball: 50/55 Change: 65/70 Slider: 50/55 Command: 50/60 https://www.mlb.com/video/rodriguez-strikes-out-eight 2022 Highlights Most Likely Future Role: Number two occasional All-Star Ceiling: Top of the rotation starter, All-Star What we know: For the 3rd year in a row this big right-hander comes in as the 2nd best prospect in the system. Using a 95-97 MPH fastball that can touch triple digits with good spin and carry, he generates a ton of swing and miss in the upper portion of the zone. He pairs his plus fastball with three offspeed pitches, a 83-85 mph split change, a high 70s curveball, and a mid-80s slider. The split-change is most consistent offspeed pitch that gets swings and misses with good downward and arm side run and can flash plus-plus at times. His hard curve and slider can also be swing and miss pitches and it depends on the game whether that’s his go to breaking ball. When he’s getting both over with movement he’s pretty hard to hit. Rodriguez used his arsenal to dominate AAA hitters through his first 11 starts, holding them to a .168/.224/.254/.478, striking out 80, walking 14, while allowing just one home run over 56 innings. Then, in the 6th with two outs in a start against Jacksonville on June 1st, Rodriguez grabbed his side after a pitch and left the game immediately. He would be diagnosed with pulled lat muscle, spending three months on the IL before starting a rehab with Aberdeen on September 1st. Rodrigue would end up making three more starts with Norfolk in the last three weeks of the season and with Orioles out of things by then, they shut him down for the year. Overall Rodriguez led the organization with just a 3.8% HR rate, tied for first with a 36.6% K rate, and was 4th in swinging strike rate with 15.8%. What we don’t know: Not much really. He was ready for the big leagues when he went down with the unfortunate lat pull and then showed he was healthy in his last few starts of the year though his command was not 100%. The only question is what does his stuff look like at 100 pitches as his season high was just 90 in the last start of the year, and he only went 80 or more in seven of his starts. What we think: Rodriguez has all the makings of a top of the rotation starter stuff wise and if the Orioles ever take the kid gloves off him, we think Orioles fans should see that in 2023. The only issue will be how many innings will the Orioles allow him to pitch in 2023 after getting in just 75.2 this year and how will they mange those innings in order to have him fresh for a potential playoff run in September and October? If he stays healthy, and the good news is his injury was not shoulder or arm related, then expect him to be a big part of the Orioles rotation in 2023.

Hmm, interesting. Now of course this assumes each 3B has the same release time which as we know, is not going to be the same. Using the average velocity for infielders is tough because not every throw needs full power and we know infielders will take MPH for accuracy if the runners are slow or the ball got to them particularly fast. I honestly think max throwing MPH might be better to use, but I haven't done the study. These MPHs are nice to know, but I'm not sure they give us the full story.

It did not attack you, I showed how silly your statement was that he was bad all season in AAA. You know you can't make silly statements here without being called out. If you were paying attention as you said, I doubt you would have made such a factually wrong statement.

This. Arm strength alone is not the only metric. Quickness of release, ability to throw on the run, accuracy are all big parts of throwing from 3B. Plus, what the difference in the 29th percentile and 50 percentile? How do you convert that into steps by an average runner. Hard to really know.

He certainly is the overwhelming favorite to be the #1 overall prospect on this list next year.

That's based on 50 being major league average. He was 18 years old, and while his approach was very advanced, I'd have to see him against upper level pitching before giving him a higher number. He still has a lot of learning to do that he will get in the minors.

If those are fangraphs, remember, that differs from my scouting grades which are explained in the Top 30 post. My 50 player is different than Fangraphs 50 future value. that's why you see Norby as a 40+.

With Basallo, Bencosme, and Estrada, we're starting to see the first group of cream rising to the top. Unfortunately, so far only Basallo has stood out among the top dollar international prospects but Tavera did show some life and there's talent in there.

I don't follow the other organizations closely enough to know how to rank the system compared to others, but those three are the impact guys in the system. Now, Mayo and Basallo are potential impact guys due to their ceilings, but the strength would be in the amount of 50 level players in that 4-9 range.

When Hall was strangely promoted for that spot start, he was not pitching all that well in AAA and looked like he was going through a "dead arm" period. During that first start, he averaged 95.4 MPH on his fastball but did throw one as low as 93.3. All of his stuff was not very good in that start and below his average when he returedn in a relief role. Her's that start. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=8/13/2022&gamePk=661865&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=playerBreakdown#661865 Go back and look at a few of the videos I just posted and you will see the life on his fastball that averaged 96.4 on the year. BTW, in his only Bowie start of the year, he says 97-98 and hit 100 a few times. He's not Dylan Bundy who never threw as hard as he did in high school when he may have been "enhanced". Bundy's velocity fell each year he was in the minors. I think a few of you have given up on Hall way too early.

I don't typically do floors because they are tricky. A floor is tough until a guy gets to AAA and then you can kind of say, he's at least this at the major league level or that his floor is a minor leaguer. Mayo's floor is certainly a flame out before he reaches the majors, but barring injuries, I'd think that has about a 10% chance of happening. He's not a right-handed Billy Rowell. Maybe I'm too bullish on Mayo, but I love upside guys who perform above league average when significantly below the average age of the league. I think some people want to grade a guy hard for not putting up amazing numbers despite the fact that he was one of, if not the youngest player in the league. I mean, what kind of numbers do you think mayo would have put up last year against college pitching? He probably would be coming into next year's draft as a top draft pick. He would be an easy 1st rounder with his skill set with comparisons to Kris Bryant and Troy Glaus. I'm sticking to my guns on him being an impact guy at the major league level, but I do realize the floor on him is lower than say a Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz or Norby. He's a risk reward prospect and I'm still betting on him.

Do you actually look at game logs or pay attention at all, because this statement is ludicrous. I mean, you can have any opinion that you like, but you sound ridiculous when you make statements that are factually untrue. Go look a six game stretch from May 26 to Jun 21, 2022 and a four start stretch from July 1st to July 17th and tell me he was bad all year? Look at what he did at the major league level over his last 8 appearances. Did he have bad outings? sure did. Does he struggle with consistency at times, sure does. But to say he was pretty bad all year is factually wrong.

I've added video now for all his pitches. He's not Tanner Scott, not even close. Go look at that stuff and come back and tell me why he's not still an important guy for this team in some high leverage role?

I rate his fastball as a 70 for two reasons. One his velocity (98-100 earlier in the year) is close to an 80 grade, but it also has above average spin. Check out this video i created on how well his FB works up in the zone. And until the last few outings, his velocity was not where it was earlier in he year. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-swing-and-miss-top-of-the-zone So I understand you are down on him as a reliever, but take a look at this stuff and tell me why you are really down in him? https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-k-s Left-handers with this kind of stuff don't come around often. Sure, he may not end up a TOR because of the things I've already mentioned, but he's going to dominate hitters in some role and that role will be in high leverage and important.

It was very close for me and honestly, like I've said previously, 4-9 are pretty interchangeable. The deciding factor for me was the risk factor involved. With Mayo, we still haven't seen him have that great success at AA or higher yet. We have however seen what Hall looks like against major league hitters (SSS of course) and we have data on his pitches in statcast. I actually think his stuff is a tick better than what we saw late in the year, but even with what he had, once he settled in he pretty much dominated major league hitters in a relief role. I do think he's going to end up a dominate high leverage reliever, perhaps similar to Josh Hader, but I don't want to discount the fact that they may still want to see if a full year removed from his injury that he can still start. The pitches are there, but I just think the makeup, consistency, and command make him a better fit for the pen. There's a lot of value in a high leverage "unhittable" reliever, and I think that's what he's going to be when it all said and done. I love Mayo's upside offensively and outside of Henderson and Holliday, no one has a higher ceiling as a position prospect. Even if he moves to 1B, we're talking about a guy who I think is going to be 35+ homer guy at the big league level. The good news in all of this is this is a nice problem to have when ranking guys in this top 10. This is probably the highest ceiling and lowest floor top 10 I've ever put together,

I didn't notice that, but unless something is pretty obvious or I see the same thing over and over, I may not notice that.