Tony-OH

Who are the 2022 Orioles #1 and #2 prospects?

Jackson Holliday Pos: SS Bats: L Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 18 2021 Level: FCL/A Tools (current/future value) Hit: 35/70 Game Power: 25/55 Raw Power: 35/60 Run: 60/55 Defense: 40/60 Most Likely Future Role: Starting SS Ceiling: 1st Division Starting SS, multiple All-Star appearances 2022 Highlights What we know: The 1st overall pick in the 2022 draft, this left-handed-hitting shortstop has the making of a future superstar and the fact that he’s “only” the 3rd best prospect in this system speaks to how good the two players are that are ahead of him. In fact, we could have built a case for him to be #1 if we really wanted to, but alas being so far away from the big leagues and with just 90 professional PAs under his belt, this seems to be the right place for him. Jackson is a legitimate five tool SS with an advance feel for hitting at a very young age. He started his career demolishing Florida Complex League pitching for a .409/.576/.591/1.167 slash line with an eye opening 10 BBs to 2 K ratio. Even more amazing he had a swinging strike % of just 5.9%. Promoted to the Carolina League where he was once of the youngest players in the league, Jackson looked to be focused on making contact over power, walking 15 times while striking out 10 in 57 Pas while slashing .238/.439/.333/.772. Even more amazing he actually cut his swinging strike % to 4.3%. Jackson gets into deep counts often without panicking and uses the opposite field well. He didn’t drive the ball much overall, but he will certainly grow into his power potential. Having such an advanced knowledge of the strike zone and contact rate is a great base for any player. Defensively, Jackson shows good quickness and a strong arm at shortstop and has the build to stay there long term. He runs well, and although he’s not a burner, he’s going to steal some bases. What we don’t know: Obviously it’s very early in his professional career and there is no telling how he can hit upper level pitching until he gets there, but his advanced approach is a great indicator. He doesn’t have massive raw power, but he does have plus raw power that he needs to learn how to tap into as he matures as a hitter. What we think: Jackson has all makings of a player who will move very quickly through the system. His advanced feel for hitting, defensive abilities, and makeup should enable him to get through the lower levels very quickly, and it would not surprise us if he finishes 2023 in Bowie (AA). Power will most likely be the last tool to show on the field, but he will be a very exciting player to watch next season.

DL Hall Throws: Left Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2021 Level: AAA/Orioles Pitches (current/future value) Fastball: 70/70 https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-swing-and-miss-top-of-the-zone Curveball: 45/50 https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-changeup Change: 50/55 https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-change-up Slider: 60/60 https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-slider Command: 40/45 Most Likely Future Role: High Leverage reliever/Closer Ceiling: Top of Rotation starter Stats What we know: After missing most of 2021 with an elbow injury, Hall came back and stayed healthy in 2022. He started the year with one appearance at both Aberdeen (A+) and Bowie (AA) before heading to Norfolk (AAA) and then to the Orioles for a spot start in August before getting promoted to pitch out of the pen in September for the playoff run. Hall is 4-pitch left-hander with a fastball that sat in the upper 90s and touched 100 MPH in early season starts before settling in to more 95-97 the rest of the season. Not only does he also get good spin rate on the high velocity offering, he has plus extension that actually lets the pitch play up and explains why it’s so hard to hit in the upper portion of the strike zone. He offsets that with a plus slider that has plus-plus horizontal movement, and an average change and curveball, though the curveball seems to be the pitch he uses the least. He pitched much better than his ERA would have indicated at both AAA (4.70 ERA vs 3.94 FIP) and in the major leagues (5.93 ERA vs 1.65 FIP/2.84 xFIP) that was mostly due to some truly awful outings. He’s typical hard to barrel up though he did get hit some in AAA when he was missing in the middle of the plate, particularly with his fastball after getting behind hitters. There in lies the dilemma with this hard throwing lefty. He absolutely has the repertoire and quality of stuff of a starter, but it takes him a lot of pitches to get guys out. Despite being allowed to pitch up to 100 pitches by mid-July, Hall was never able to go more than six innings in any start, and he did that just once on July 6th when he struck out 14 batters in a 98-pitch outing. In fact, Hall pitched five or more innings in only five of his 20 minor league starts. After the Orioles promoted him for spot start on August 13th against the Blue Jays in which he allowed five ER in just 3.2 IP, they returned him to AAA to work out of the pen the rest of the season. When the roster expanded to 28 in September, the Orioles called him up to finish off the year in the bullpen. Hall was hit around for three ER in his second relief appearance, but afterwards, settled into the role allowing just one ER over 8.2 IP, striking out 11, walking just two, and holding batters to a .235/.278/.265/.543 slash line to flash his promise out of the pen. What we don’t know: Can Hall find more consistency with throwing quality strikes that he can stick as a starter? Will he be able to give the team a consistent 6 innings or is his best role in the bullpen? What we think: With his overall stuff, the organization may want to give him one more chance to stick as starter next season, but at 24-years old, he appears to be ready as a high leverage reliever. Hall is a fidgety guy on the mound who can show his emotions at times, so the relief role might be a better fit for his personality as well. With the Orioles entering a window of competitiveness, it makes sense for him to be another high leverage reliever to be counted on rather than deal with his inconsistencies from start to start. While it’s easy to get down on Hall if he “only” becomes a reliever, the fact that he has strikeout stuff to be that high leverage reliever or closer if needed, makes his value still very high. Here's his swing and miss K's this season. https://www.mlb.com/video/00u7jzgkdtP9kH55c356/reels/dl-hall-k-s While it’s easy to dream upon him putting it together and becoming a consistent starter on a competitive team, at his age, it might be time to maximize his abilities now at the major league level. Depending on what moves they make this offseason The Orioles will most likely bring him into camp next year competing as a starter, but the real question will be if he doesn’t look like he will make the rotation, do they send him to AAA to be starter’s depth, or do they get him ready to be a key part of their bullpen?

That's because you didn't have yourself and several others try to come after me for making that comparison between Mayo and Henderson at the same age, level, and team/stadium. You guys are really getting bored because for some reason, because I'm beginning to be the punching bag for comments that are either taken out of context or misconstrued totally. If you don't care about my comparisons, that's your right. It's wildcard's right too, but when you make an entire thread to bring this fact up, I'm going to call the poster on it. To say using these comparisons mean nothing is ridiculous. Do they guarantee anything? Nope, but neither does any prior performance including major league. But what are we suppose to do, just keep saying nothing guarantees nothing?

No, my entire point was that I would rather have Detmers or Myers right now. It was a throw away comment that was not meant to disparage Kjerstad or the scouting staff. Saying that, as of right now, they look like they would be better picks. I agree, only time will tell this fully.

I'll take this as a pot shot at me for my Mayo ranking and some of the reasoning behind his high ranking still. I never said it guarantees anything. In fact, minor league performance GAURANTEES NOTHING. They are nothing but indicators to go off of but so are age, size, EVs, and raw power. All of which are in Mayo's corner. So what's your point then besides trying and failing to say I indicated something I NEVER wrote. Besides, this post is so silly because there are so many factors, including COVID season as to why players were where they were, including Adley.

Go back and reread my post then come back and tell me where I suggested we know the outcome of all the draft picks in that draft. I just said those two pitchers would have looked pretty good instead right now because they both are major league ready as the Orioles head into a window. I never stated it was a scouting problem or that anything with Kjerstad's illness and injury could have been predicted. You literally read what I said and jumped not once on the "jumped to the conclusion mat", but multiple times to come up with that post.

I don't think you can totally discount him play at 3B in the major leagues. He's not awful there, especially for a big guy he moves ok, but those feet still don't move great and while he can throw accurately and strong on the run, he's a step slow coming in and I don't that will improve.

Mayo probably ends up at 1B if he stays in this organization, but he could be a key part of a deal as well.

Xavier Moore is my darkhorse to be protected. He's a guy I think they hid a bit in Single-A to try and keep him from teams, but those K and swing str % rates are some of the best in the system despite the lack of big fastball.

That really plays into it pretty high. I'm not sure some people realize how impressive it is to be at the levels he was at at his age. In each level, his wRC+, which adjusts for leagues was over the league average while being well below the average age for the level. He also has some of the best exit velocities in the system. He's a big boy who is going to fill out and I think you are going to see his power explode next year and the year after. I honestly could have put him at #4.

Who are the 2022 #3 and #4 prospects?

Coby Mayo Pos: Third baseman Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 20 2022 Level: A+/AA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 35/50 Game Power: 40/60 Raw Power: 60/70 Run: 50/45 Defense: 30/45 Most Likely Future Role: Starting 3rd Baseman/Right fielder/1st Baseman Ceiling: Starting third baseman, Occasional All-Star 2022 Highlights What we know: An overslot ($1.7 million) 4th round selection in the COVID shortened five round 2020 draft, Mayo has put himself squarely on the prospect scene despite not putting up gaudy numbers in his first full season. The Orioles were aggressive with the 20-year old starting him out in Aberdeen (High-A) before moving him to AA (Bowie) by mid-season. Hitting in the tough Sally League in cavernous Ripken Stadium, Mayo still slashed .251/.326/.494/.821 for a 118 wRC+ despite being one of the younger hitters int the league. Those numbers look a lot better when you realize he started of the season slashing .234/.298/.460/.758 through his first 128 PAs before earning a promotion to Bowie after slashing .262/.350/.500/.850 with 9 doubles and seven home runs over his next 143 PAs. He found AA pitchers to be a bit tougher and to be honest, there were nights where he struggled to compete. With the better assortment of offspeed pitches, his K rate skyrocketed to 34.5% and his walk rate lowered to 8.3%, both career worse. Of course it's wise to remember that the 20-year old was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League, a full four years youngers than the average age of pitchers in the league. Mayo generates above average bat speed with an aggressive, violent hip rotation that enables him to create above average exit velocities. He was an ambush hitter at times this season, jumping on early count fastballs. He really never seemed to get comfortable at the plate all season, but part of that may have been the aggressiveness of the promotions. He runs well for his size but he will slow down with age and will most likely end up a below average runner. Defensively, Mayo continue to show the above average arm at 3B, but he still struggles with his footwork and frequently throws off the wrong foot or in between steps, particularly on the run where he does not show great body control. At 6-foot-5, it will be hard for him to stay at 3B unless he can improve his footwork but since he runs well and has a cannon, right field might be the first option if 3B does not work out. If neither works out, 1B is the fall back option. What we don't know: Mayo held his own overall, but the question is will he come back and make adjustments to the AA offspeed pitches or was his rising K rate a harbinger of future struggles? Defensively he still does some things well at times at the hot corner, but will he need a position change in the next year or two? What we think: The upside here is why Mayo still ranks over other more physically mature players who had good offensive seasons. While Mayo's floor is probably the lowest of the players listed in the 4-9 range on this list, he has the highest ceiling of any player not in the top three. We watched how much of a jump that Gunnar Henderson had this past season, and while Mayo most likely will not make the same jumps in plate discipline, he does carry that kind of upside, particularly in the power department. Had Mayo gone to college, next year would have been his draft year so before you grade him too roughly on his mediocre stats in 2022, grade him on the curve that he deserves and let's see where he is at the end of next season. We still think Kris Bryant could be a potential comp for Mayo so of all the players in these rankings, he's the one we may have either underrated at his ranking, or underrated. We'll have a better idea after next season.

Jordan Westburg Pos: 2B/SS/3B Bats: R Throws: R Age (as of Jun 30th) : 23 2021 Level: AA/AAA Tools (current/future value) Hit: 40/50 Game Power: 50/55 Raw Power: 55/60 Run: 60/55 Defense: 45/50 Most Likely Future Role: Starting second base or 1st baseman Ceiling: Starting second base, occasional All-Star 2022 Highlights What we know: With 69 extra base hits on the year, no Orioles farmhand had more extra base hits than this former 2020 1st rounder did in 2022. While the final numbers on year were impressive, it wasn't all rainbows and sunshine as Westburg had several long slumps during the season. Starting the year in AA (Bowie), the 23-year old slashed just .179/.304/.379/.683 in 112 PAs over his first 25 games before settling in and slashing .322/.392/.575/.967 with 10 doubles and four home runs over his next 97 PAs to earn himself a promotion to AAA. He found AAA pitching to his liking slashing .413/.439/.825/1.265 with seven doubles, two triples and five home runs in his first 66 PAs over 14 games. He then went into a long slump, slashing just .187/.259/.285/.544 with six doubles and just two homeruns while striking out 37 times with just 10 walks over the next 135 PAs (35 games). He made some adjustments and finished strong slashing .284/.401/.551/.952 12 doubles, 11 home runs and impressive 31-40 BB-K ratio over his last 212 PAs. Overall, Westburg's 20.4% LD rate was 10th best in the system with players with more than 350 PAs and his 11.7% swinging strike % was 9th best in the system to go along with 4th in the system .232 ISO power. Besides being streaky, Westburg can get a little pull happy at times which typically corresponds to his slumps. He's best when he's using all fields and he has the power to hit the ball out to right center. Some scouts believe there's a little too much miss in the bat (23.6%), but that number did go down in AAA to a career low 21.8%. Westburg has been known to chase the slider away and his walk and K rates were similar to Kyle Stowers at the AAA level. Westburg is a good athlete overall, but defensively, he's probably destined for second base where his below average footwork won't hinder him as much as on the left side of the diamond. He has an over the top throwing motion that can be inaccurate at times and he struggles to throw accurately when moving away from 1st base. At 6-3 and over 200 pounds, his quickness will not improve as he fills out which could ultimately pash him over to first base where his size would be a plus. Westburg runs well for a big guy and while he's not going to be a big base stealer at the big league level, he will run well on the bases. What we don't know: Westburg has been a pretty streaky hitter who will run white hit as often as he runs cold it seems. Can he find a way to be more consistent? Westburg has been helped by very high BABIPs during his hot streaks so he'll need find more consistency when major league defenses shore up some of these defensive holes that contribute to those high marks. Defensively, while he can play SS and 3B and not kill a team, they are not positions that a team will want to play him at everyday. We he settle into an everyday 2B or 1B, or will super sub be his future? What we think: Some observers and scouts feel Michael Young is a good comp for Westburg. While Westburg may not have Young's hit tool, he may have a bit more power and could have a little more defensive versatility overall. Westburg is similar to Conner Norby in that his bat will be his calling card at the major league level, but there is a chance that Westburg could become a solid everyday defensive 2B since he does turn the double play pretty well and his arm strength may be a tick above average at the position. If he's not traded, Westburg probably will get an opportunity to come into camp next year with a chance to win the starting 2B job along with Joey Ortiz, Terrin Vavra and possibly Conner Norby.

It's a thought exercise that accurately shows some of the high value players available. Overall, despite missing Bradish from the "holdovers" I thought it was an informative piece.

Since we're waiting, Basallo is not at #5 or #6. Could he surprise still?

My apologies guys. I am working with technical support because I can not reach my content management server to post the players. Hopefully these knuckleheads will get this fixed soon.

He still may be..

I agree, looking for a Gunnar-like leap is not realistic, but it is good to know Mayo he had several things, including a much better K rate at the same level and age.

Not going to have this. Keep to the subject at hand or avoid his posts. Place him on ignore if his posts bother you so much but your thoughts on him or anyone as a poster is not relevant to baseball discussion.

Fair enough, but Ortiz doesn't have the power upside and put up a .289/.368/.426/.794 against WAC pitching as a sophomore in college vs Mayo's line against High-A pitching. As for Westburg or Cowser, if you like older, closer players, than absolutely, they should be higher in your book, but Cowser has a platoon issue and needs to play corner outfield for defensive value and Westburg will end up at 2B or maybe 1B, has some streakiness concerns, and has never hit for average really. But again, 4-9 could be mixed and matched really depending on what you value more. In my case, I value Mayo's offensive potential and think he could be an outstanding defensive first baseman if he does need to move across the diamond eventually.

Remember, I'm not comparing the two as overall prospects, I'm just showing what they both did at the same level at the same age. Henderson also had the COVID year to get extra PAs against high level pitching at the Bowie camp. The K rate difference is something to keep an eye on. I know Mayo's went too high in his first taste of AA, but he was very young for his league. I've always been bullish on Mayo's bat and remain so. I see controlled violence in that swing, but I know we'll need to see how he comes back next year before getting a fuller picture. but he certainly gets graded on a curve because of age vs competition age/level and there were several god signs in his numbers if you dig a little deeper than the casual stats.

I would not be so sure. Rom is similar in stuff to Zach Lowther and we saw him flame out pretty hard. I've been disappointed with his development overall and would not be surprised if he's left unprotected. Now saying that, he could be a depth guy this year and could provide some long relief type role if needed, so I'd probably protect him over several players on the roster, starting with Tyler Nevin who has no role on a major league 40-man roster.

Is it possible to have a discussion without you going after Sports Guy for something he said in the past? We're having a conversation about whether Trea Turner makes sense. Bringing up the past has no relevance on this discussion.

You do realize that Mayo would have been in his sophomore year of college in 2022, but instead was playing in AA? Oh, and I'll throw this in there. Here's Gunner Henderson and Coby Mayo's stats at Aberdeen at 20 years old. Name BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Henderson 13.8% 30.1% .202 .313 .230 .343 .432 .341 109 Mayo 9.4% 21.5% .243 .275 .251 .326 .494 .361 118 So less of a K%, more power, worse luck, and a better wOBA and wRC+ for Mayo. Oh, and Mayo has no platoon split like Henderson. Not saying he will break out like Gunnar did his next year, but tell me why Mayo should not be in the top six prospects in the organization?