now

Right on. Add to those bashers, Mayo and Kjerstad as regulars. Good times ahead. Hasta manana!

Gregor, is that you?

Or make good use of the "ignore" list.

Some of the changes, I grant you, seem capricious or designed to change the game in peripheral ways. But umpiring? In contrast to your experience, I'm most motivated to lose interest and tune out whenever (several times a game or even in the same at bat) the ump makes an egregious ball-strike call that is clearly wrong. Especially when it's so directly game-changing.

If the arm is an issue then CF makes less sense than 2B, given defense is such a priority. Of if CF is such a priority need for us, then just trade him as a 2B for someone else's star young CFer.

I agree this is the most questionable part of the Elias MO. Although it is hard to dispute results so far, unless you've already jumped ship following 5 losses. Personally (as an armchair GM) I would have sold high on Hays, Mullins, Urias, to net some young arms. Borderline Santander and Mountcastle too (though their peak might be now vs. last year). Maybe even Cano after last year! But this is not only hindsight, it also overlooks whatever value chemistry, veteranosity, seniority, continuity, risk mgt., etc. hold in the mysteries of the Sigbot.

Speaking of scar tissue, a review of our storied/checkered past shows an uglier picture than we like to recall... St. Louis Browns 1902-1953: 52 years, 1 WS (1944), loss. Baltimore Orioles 1954-1983: 30 years, 6 WS (3-3), plus 2 more ALCS losses. Orioles 1984-2023: 40 years, 6 playoffs losses (1 WC, 2 ALDS, 3 ALCS).

Yeah that was pretty epic, even for an already losing season. Or were they barely in contention? I conveniently can't remember. 2017? Nope, but that was pretty bad too. After a 7-game win streak to the end of August, they were 8 games back, but then lost 22 of 29 to finish 18 games out.

I've been a fan for a long time too but mostly remember a lot of near misses, not tailspin collapses. 2005 comes to mind (Raffygate, Sammy Sosa, Lee Mazzilli, et al.)... what other seasons are you thinking of, to create scar tissue?

It would be heresy to say he's a "bad pick." Just pointing out the suspect math of giving away 40% of the catching starts, and thus another lineup spot, to a replacement level player... versus an equivalent talent who plays his position every day. Not to mention, long-term career durability (tho that gets into salary extension considerations, a whole other topic).

And, I hate to sound like a broken record (oldtimers reference), but this also exposes the weak underbelly of the strategy to make your 1:1 pick a catcher (as opposed to, say, a full-time shortstop). Yeah I know, they also got Gunnar, but still.

Not picking on you, but how can you consider it if you don't buy it at all? Just curious, as it does seem to me also worth considering (given this sample size) even when the "experts" say it doesn't hold water. Sort of like "clutch hitting."

Interesting note today from MLB.com All-Star news. A tale of two ex-O infielders (whom we can thank for Kremer and Burnes): NL third base: Manny Machado (SD) vs. Joey Ortiz (MIL) 545,259 votes vs. 486,267 votes Roughly 60,000 votes separate two third basemen at very different junctures of their careers. Machado is already a six-time All-Star playing in his 13th big league season and is having a down year (.694 OPS) compared to his career norm (.823 OPS). The 25-year-old Ortiz, meanwhile, is blossoming in his first full MLB season (.832 OPS) after being a key piece in last offseason’s Corbin Burnes trade.

Love seeing all this new blood entering the list at 40 and above! Especially the newest .400 hitter on my (otherwise uninformed) radar, SS Elvin Garcia of DSL Black, age 17.

No, I think it means playing worse against losing teams, but also best against the winningest teams. Which always seems true about the Orioles, even when they were losing. Which probably means it's fan derangement, but still.

Clock strikes midnight. Behold, the pumpkin!

Fortunately, not all AI's are created equal. Turning to ChatGPT, I got this response which gave a jolt to my fallible human memory (picking Myers 1997, saving 45 of 46). How could I have forgotten Britton's unmatched brilliance? Oh wait...

The flip side of Davey's knack for winning and having good mojo, was Ray Miller's terrible anti-charisma as a manager.

Good alternative universe with DeCinces putting them over the top in '82. However, the real-world loss that year is widely credited with lighting the fire that pushed them to win it all in '83. We'll never know!

Right off the bat I would go with Randy Myers, 1997. AI alert: I just asked AI, and here is what it came up with, LOL!

Your point seems obvious but I'll offer an alternative logic: any improvement helps, regardless of whether it improves a team strength or weakness, and the offense or the pitching. I believe current stats show balance there even though we've lost front line starters to injury, and even though we doubt the bullpen can hold up. Drilling down, the question is more of detail, as in who sits when Mayo or Holliday plays, and how much the positional offense/defense is improved by doing so.

(puzzled emoji): How can it be "extremely disappointing" to not sweep, when you go on to list three good reasons they could lose each of the games??

That's a striking difference both in odds results (19.4% vs. 8.3%) and type of projection system. The MLB system is based heavily on past performance, whereas the Fangraphs system is based most heavily on future projections. (Though maybe the difference in approach is not as great as it appears since Fangraphs' "projections" are based, after all, on past performance.) Obviously we like the result of the first system better, but is it more suspect since it includes 26 games from last season's roster?

So we're in good shape for grabbing the division title spot, but I think the bigger issue to keep in mind is the Wild Card race, now at +9.5 games over Boston and 13.5 games ahead of Tampa. It means we have some breathing room to (a) continue giving chances to slumping vets or struggling rookies; (b) continue juggling rotation spots to cover for Bradish, Means, Wells; (c) continue finding ways to win without selling off the farm for pitching replacements. The biggest question mark as always is how will the bullpen hold up?

Right, like who was it (Morton, McCullers??) that threw like 26 straight curves in the World Series a few years back? With good results. Just need some more of that elusive control/command to go along with the stuff!