bluedog

Looks like Cleveland has two near major league ready Top 100 prospects (Espino and Gavin Williams - who's already up) and 6 solid starters (Bieber, McKenzie, Quantrill, Civale, Logan Allen and Bibee). They desperately need hitting, so it looks like there could be a fit between the O's and the Guards. Good one.

Holliday is S tier / Omega level. He doesn't belong on any "A" prospect list Seriously though, I assume Holliday is untouchable. I would enjoy hearing your opinion on what pitching prospects you'd think would be available and immediately help our rotation.

You know, I am not certain that any starter that will actually be available (I don't think Ohtani will be) represents a big enough upgrade that I'd want to trade any of our "A" prospects. (For me, that's Basallo, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, ERod, Ortiz, Hall and Norby). If we can get Snell for lesser prospects, great (I doubt we can), but otherwise I am fine going to war with what we have over bringing in more "average" starters, especially if they are rentals. I feel like a more likely option is Elias swapping high quality prospects - a major league ready positional player for a major league ready starting pitcher. What pitching prospects are out there that we'd immediately slot in a the major league level which might be attainable?

Tonight to celebrate the Westburg callup, I started a new Ootp 24 game with a live start using the stats up to today. On July 30th against the Yankees, this is what happened: O's are currently 62 - 42 and in the lead for the wildcard. No pressure Kyle, no pressure...

If you ever get hit by a bus, you might change your mind about that...

You and I see this very similarly. I also think Cowser comes up once he clears the service time hurdle in a week or so and moves Santandar to primary DH. That should be both a defensive and offensive upgrade unless Cowser struggles mightily at the plate. I want Elias to promote Westburg and be played pretty much full time, but I have trouble seeing Elias trading or Hyde benching Frazier. For that reason, I think Westburg will be the centerpiece of a trade at the deadline. I also agree that pitching may be the #1 goal, but I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Elias make a move for a hitter (1b?) that fits the philosophy more and can hold the fort down until Mayo is ready. So I won't be surprised if some combination of Haskin, Westburg, Prieto, DL Hall, Norby might be on the move. I wouldn't even be shocked to see Rodriguez dealt (not advocating it, just wouldn't be shocked) in a deal for a true TOR starter.

CBS just released an updated Top 25 prospect list and in it they mention that Kjerstad was a candidate for making that list. You are right that his performance has exceeded all possible expectations.

Appreciate the civil post. You make good points. I can't imagine Elias sitting pat with 7 top 100 prospects (counting Rodriguez in that group) at AAA, two more (Holliday & Mayo) headed to AAA next year if not sooner and several more (Haskins, Prieto, Armbruster, Basallo, Willems) knocking on the Top 100 door. I he does make a move, I think it must be an impact move, not another Cole Irvin type trade.

CBS just released an updated Top 25 prospects and Holliday is #1: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-prospect-rankings-top-25-players-re-ranked-with-orioles-jackson-holliday-moving-up-to-no-1/ Of note is this quote from the article: A veteran talent evaluator said that Holliday is so far ahead of the pack that, if they could, they would trade their club's two best prospects (both well-regarded in their own right) for him. Colton Cowser also checks in at #21 and apparently Kjerstad was considered for the Top 25.

Okay let me rephrase. Since Elias was a part of the Astros front office that Traded for Verlander in 2017...better?

Given that Elias traded 3 top 12 prospects for Justin Verlander when he was with the Astros in 2017, I don't know why anyone would think he's going to waste top prospects on a mediocre starter. His historical behavior doesn't bear that out. (And I don't count former #16 Hernaiz as a top prospect) It's eerie how Elias' time with the O's has mirrored his time with the Stros: https://www.thedrummeyangle.com/post/mike-elias-the-man-behind-the-curtain I will be surprised if Elias doesn't pull off a similar trade here either this year or next.

Wouldn't be shocked to see the O's and Cards match up. The Cardinals look to be out of contention and unless they make a run before the trade deadline, they might move one or more of their solid bullpen arms. Jeff Passan has suggested they might be looking at a fire sale and that every player on their roster is potentially available. Ryan Helsley's 100MPH fastball would be a nice compliment to Bautista and Cano. Flaherty may also be on the block and benefit from a change of teams.

Kerstad making noise at #21. Also crazy that we have 3 players in the top 21 and none of them are Cowser, Westburg, Mayo, Ortiz or Norby...

Obviously, its just a game, but Ootp Baseball seems to have pretty good modeling for contract extensions. I started a new live start from today's date and immediately negotiated extensions with Adley & Gunnar: Adley - 11 years / $195.8M Gunnar - 11 years / $92.1M In prior games, when I've waited to the end of the 2023 season, Adley wouldn't sign anything better than 8 years @ $30M per year. When I've let him go to arbitration to keep his first few years cheaper, his first FA contract was for 8 years @ $65M per year (Yikes!). Of course by that time he'd put up 7 straight all star appearances, over 40 WAR and collected an MVP trophy and I was in a bidding war with the Yankees, Padres and Dodgers to sign him. So I'd say lock him up right the hell now.

I don't trust Mateo. I'd love for him to become a legit star for the O's, but I fear he's going to regress to the .650 - .700 OPS player he's been throughout his career. He's looked like the "old" Mateo at the plate the past few days.

You are correct. Stats hadn't updated to include tonight's game when I looked. So he just need 6 more outs. Exciting!

Cano has 6.1 innings without allowing a baserunner. 7 more batters in a row and he'll have a Fireman's Perfect Game.

I am certainly not in the trade Mateo just to trade him camp. If we can't get a good starter, we should ride with the posse we've got.

Great response. I think you can replace Mateo without needing to depend on an unknown in Ortiz. You move Gunnar to short and play Urias at third full time. Urias was a 2.8 WAR player in less than full time last year, so I'd expect him to replace most of Mateo's offensive production and Gunnar should be able to approach Mateo's defense at short. I'd take Urias + Gunnar + better starting pitching over Gunnar + Mateo + worse starting pitching. Of course this assumes the starter we get back in trade is a solid upgrade over our current options.

Okay this is a rational argument. Cheers.

I hear you. I would love for Mateo to put up 12 WAR this season. But I think the O's need better Starting Pitching and I'm not against moving Mateo (or anyone other than Adley / Gunnar) to get it, if it makes the team better.

Yeah it doesn't look like we picked up anyone later in the draft with the extra $ that would make up for the difference between Lawler and Cowser. Did Norby get an overslot deal?

Yeah earlier in the thread I said it would take Mateo + prospects to get any of the Dodgers starters. I don't disagree with you here.

Cogent argument. I always have a hard time with the "we value him more than anyone else does" bit though. Why would other teams value him less than we do, especially if they need a SS and we have a glut of them? And why would we value someone more than anyone else? Doesn't that mean we are being irrational in how we value the player? If there was ever a candidate for the O's valuing a player more than other teams, I figure it would have been Mancini.

May would rock. How about Pepiot?