AnythingO's
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Posts posted by AnythingO's
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
Why should innings be a concern for either of them? Assuming normal modern era pitcher usage? We are talking about a league in which fewer than 10 pitchers threw 200 innings. If you let the two of them throw to their ability neither should get near that so why arbitrarily limit them further? I don't know of any proven justification for limiting Grayson to 3-4 inning starts.
I don't disagree that there is no "proven justification for limiting" either of their innings, and yet "conventional wisdom" says about a 50 inning bump year-over-year. That is all I am referring to. I know ME said there won't be a hard and fast rule. I don't interpret that as full go. Hall did 97 and GRod did 75 innings. Planning for 150 from either of them is unwise IMO. Hence, inning limits early to have extra innings available late. My main point was to have Hall up and on a SP rotation, working on command with Holt. The assumption is that he is more valuable than Polti, etc until Tate returns. Then you re-evaluate.
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Several have suggested Hall should be used in a tandem or piggyback role with GRod and have been questioned "why". Perhaps the answer lies in whether we view that as a starter or RP role. Last year Hall had 11 appearances in a RP role. His first outing was bad but over his next 10 appearances he struck out 13 vs 3 BB over 10 innings. Yes, SSS, but that is all we have in that role. Call it a starter or opener or whatever you like. If he stays up he can stay on regular rotation, limited to 1-2 innings allows him to focus on fewer pitches, and hopefully working with Holt et al is best for his development. As long as Tate is out a BP spot is not a restriction. Any given day GRod or Hall have it all working you let them go longer. Keep GRod on 3-4 inning and Hall on 1-2 inning restrictions leaves them both with innings to spare for late season run.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
I think what Elias’ history has been during the rebuilding phase may not tell us much about what he’ll do now that the team is in a different situation. If we have a surplus in a spot that can be traded to acquire players in areas where we are short, I think Elias will move if he likes the deal even if the players traded have some years of control remaining.
I think this is spot on with the caveat that ME is still likely in evaluation mode. Many want to dump Mateo because of his bat and replace him with Ortiz or Gunnnar and put Urias at 3B. Is Mateo's 2 month heater (OPS .888) less relevant than Ortiz's 3 month heater in AA-AAA (1.000 OPS)? Can Urias hold up for more than 400 ABs and will his bat rebound? Is Norby's bat real, does he have a defensive position? Can Vavra hit enough to stick as a Util IF-COF? Is Westburg athletic enough to move to COF? Is Stowers a keeper RF, or 1B or DH? Can Cowser handle CF? Will Kjerstad come back and is he good enough for RF. Is Mayo's bat so special you have to find a position for him? Then there are Beavers, Fabian, etc? IS Jackson more valuable at SS or CF? ME isn't gonna trade anyone until he has made up his mind what their outcome will be. Hopefully by mid-year we will see the result of that deliberation.
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54 minutes ago, HakunaSakata said:
As a one year fill in why would age even matter? And Mateo already peaked last season. There's literally no where for him to go but down.
If you are only "literally" talking defense then perhaps, given the highlight reel of plays last year, it may not be possible for Mateo to be better, He was valued as a hitting prospect that found his development blocked by All Stars. He only has about 770 ABs total in the ML and generally folks say it takes about 1500 to learn what kind of hitter you are. The 6 week hot streak last summer is encouraging enough IMO to give his bat the first 2-3 months of the year to see which version he is going to be going forward. In his 600 ABs with BAL his AVG is .231, OBP is .278, OPS is .664 and OPS+ is 85. Not so horrible when combined with his defense
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2 minutes ago, wildcard said:
Gunnar is the big dog here. He will likely get 600 AB if he proves to be what many project him to be. Some at SS and some at 3B. SS Mateo and 3B/2B Urias playing time will probably be determine by how they play, how healthy they stay and how much they contribute to the O's winning. It will be an ongoing evaluation as will how Ortiz, Westburg and Vavra do.
I think that's what I was trying to say if it didn't come thru that way. I am intrigued by the Vavra experiment at 3B. Nobody foresaw Urias as a GG there but his skillset seemed to fit. Vavra, who knows.
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8 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
That does not sound like Gunnar will be full time 3B.
Urias had 400 ABs last year so maybe if a 50-50 split, then 200 at 3B this year. Gunnar can get 450 ABs at 3B and another 150 at SS. Mateo had 500 ABs last year so maybe 450 this year depending on his bat being good enough to play. If not then more Gunnar until Ortiz-Westburg are deemed ready.
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This from MASN in February: “[Manager Brandon Hyde and I] sat down with him yesterday. He knows that the plan is for him to play a little bit more second base than he did last year,” Elias said, “but he’ll be at third base half the time as well and is going to get a ton of playing time.”
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From December: Mike Elias mentioned that Ramón Urías "projects to play a lot of second base" next year, but that the Orioles have potential playing time available at DH, first base, second and the corner outfield.
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2 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:
Could have been smokescreen but Elias said Urias would play mostly 3B. Unless Urias is going to the bench that suggests Gunner will be playing mostly SS.
I'm pretty sure he said Urias would split time between 2B and 3B, more 2B than last year.
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19 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Gotta like Povich striking out 3 in 2 innings.
Agree, gotta like the potential for John Means like growth as he fills out and works the pitching labs offseason. Then if Seth Johnson can come back from TJ the upper Mil pitching ranks aren't so barren. Then you add Heston who appears to be on a Mission to reestablish himself, and we could have strong support in Mil system ranking no matter who graduates in 2023-24. By then the International pipeline should begin producing some prospects. The new Oriole Way is being built, we need a new descriptor. I grew up during the early-60s to mid-eighties run when we were the only team with a winning record against MFNYY. I always assumed it would continue, stupid me, knowledge is wasted on youth. I want another run, starting now, not another swag song like 1983 was to 1982.
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Henderson is going to get regular ABs unless injured. Frazier is past the point of getting 500 ABs and Urias only had 400 ABs last year. For Mateo to get 500 ABs again, his bat needs to match Urias IMO. Last year about 650 OPS (Mateo) vs 720 OPS (Urias). Given what Elias has said, Urias could get 200 ABs each at 3B and 2B, Frazier gets the other 450 ABs at 2B. Gunnar gets the other 450 ABs at 3B and 200 ABs at SS. Whether Mateo gets 450 ABs depends on his adopting last summer's approach successfully. If anyone other than Gunnar craps out then Westburg and Ortiz are waiting. That distribution lines up with everything ME has said.
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5 minutes ago, SemperFi said:
It was not included in '22 in the models I have seen.
That is interesting as the attendance in 2022 was down by 6% vs 2019 but revenue was a record high 10.8 B vs 10.7 B in 2019. I didn't think the new tv money kicked in until next year, maybe that is what did it?
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9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I'm sure that 30M payment from Disney is going straight to payroll.
I suspect it was counted in Revenue for all of MLB but likely will be in the O's Operating Income for 2023. But I tend to be negative.
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10 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Well, I am not ready to say what payroll they can afford. Per Forbes, they had $ 83 mm in operating income in 2021. We will get the Forbes 2022 numbers in a few weeks, but we know that the O’s had about 500,000 more in attendance than In 2021, and that a couple of renewed national TV deals kicked in that should lead to increased TV revenues for every team. So, I will not be at all surprised if the O’s operating income for 2022 exceeded that from 2021 by a significant margin. But I’ll wait to see what Forbes says. (And yes, we all know that the Forbes numbers don’t give a complete picture, but they do give an idea of where teams stand against each other and how things change year to year.)
Correct, we just don't know. However the MLB profit was the highest ever, beating 2019, but the attendance was significantly lower league wide. That makes me suspect that the last increment of Disney $$ was included in the 2022 overall profit figures. So the O's could see a bump in 2023 OI unrelated to the new TV deals, whether that continues or is sustainable remains to be seen.
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When HK was in the AFL I started watching his SO rate relative to the others. He generally had more ABs than anyone on the leader board and his SO rate was about 35% about halfway thru. Then week after week it was dropping. He finished with 31 SOs in 98 ABs so after being over 35% halfway thru he did much better. He finished 6th in OPS and batted .357. I am a Heston homer but I believe he will be back to pre-injury or better this year. A very ice "new addition" to the Mil rankings.
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Thank you Frobby for that summary. In addition, JA doesn't have the income from the law firm that PA had, absent the firm's partner, they are down 50% in size and the residuals from the big lawsuit wins are diminishing. JA doesn't have the resources PA had. Absent a big revenue increase from somewhere they are probably limited to about salaries in the $125-130 M range with zero profit. I'm sure JA gets some MASN profit, maybe he is OK with that
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1 hour ago, BrendanPlutschak said:
Having said all of that, that was all before John Angelos' had control of the reigns like he does now, so there is a small part of me that has questions over how high of a payroll he is willing to have. Time will tell. We don't need top 5, but history shows you need to be around the top 10 to win a World Series.
PA was willing to spend but he was generating income from the law firm as well, JA doesn't have that income source. The payrolls in the $140-160 M range were also years they lost money (per Forbes figures). MASN isn't the cash cow it once was. Absent a significant increase in Revenue they won't have top 10 payrolls.
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1 minute ago, deward said:
Using the replay room is the tech part
I know that but was just messing with Frobby, it was the first thought that popped into my mind when I read his post. lol (imagine green font)
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2 hours ago, Frobby said:
Sneaking a peak at the catcher’s signals isn’t cheating. If a team is sloppy enough to let a baserunner or coach steal their signs, that’s their problem. But there was a specific directive against using technology to steal signs, that was directly violated by the Astros.
Who knew that banging a trash can qualifies as "using technology".
Obviously I kid, but that was the thought that crossed my mind when I read your post.
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Someone on here said he failed the bar 3 times, I don't remember who. I have no idea how someone would even know that. Seems odd to keep trying if you really didn't want it that badly. Maybe PA pressure, who knows.
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Alright, I mean that's fine. I'm not saying he was looking for sympathy or applause necessarily, but he didn't offer any context as to what the point was, so one could read it that way. What did it mean, you know? I just remember reading the quotes on twitter and immediately feeling like, "what is he even saying this for". It came off as bizarre to me and other folks, some of the reporters too.
FWIW, I had the same reaction when I read the original quote, he is tone deaf. Whenever JA opens his mouth it is just another opportunity for him to switch feet.
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I don't think Stowers has the speed, reaction time, range to play LF at OPACY
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I want to see Mateo commit to the hitting approach he used last summer for those 6 weeks. If he can get his OPS over 700, he holds the fort until Jackson is ready and then is a trade chip. That allows Ortiz to focus on being a GG at 2B, assuming he would beat out Westburg and Norby. You have a GG infield for years and several trade chips.
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33 minutes ago, Frobby said:
My view is that Fabian having the highest floor due to his defense is probably correct. On ceiling, though, I think there’s a reason Kjerstad was picked no. 2 overall while the other two were 2nd/3rd rounders. I think he has the highest ceiling on offense for sure, and the margin is probably enough where I’d say he has the highest ceiling overall despite being well below the other two defensively.
I think I agree with you re Heston. When he was drafted there were videos of him playing LF chasing a deep drive in the alley and running the bases. He seemed fast, I don't know if we had sprint data from then or not. If he is 100% then at his age he should be able to get back to that condition level. His bat was the draw and comments from the AFL indicate his power has recovered. If his bat to ball skills are there, he could blow up this year.
Rosenthal: Overloaded with star prospects, Orioles need to determine how to escalate the team’s rise
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Sen 1, change "plans" to "hope" and I'm right there with you. Sen 2, that's contingency plans which is why we have 8 SP candidates not counting Hall. Sen 3, I agree, but from effectiveness vs injury perspective. I would rather he spend whatever bullets his arm has in it this year up here with Holt, and grow into the SP we hope he can be.