AnythingO's
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Posts posted by AnythingO's
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1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:
In his defense if I were offered the choice between 50M before taxes and an Orioles WS title I'd take the 50M.
The O's are a +$1 B franchise so I do NOT begrudge them a 5% ROI, the point was that heretofore being anointed as CEO by his mother in 2020, JA had accomplished absolutely nothing but a string of failure.
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Sometimes it seems like that JOHN ANGELOS MAKING $50-75 m PER YEAR TO BURNISH HIS BUSINESS CV is more important to them than actual winning is.
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Even if we graduate 3-4 of those this year we still have our share remaining. Then with the next wave of Kjerstad, Mayo, Fabian, Beavers, Wagner, Baumlier, Johnson, Povich some will step forward. Good time to be O's.
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27 minutes ago, eddie83 said:
Steve Geppi was a part of the ownership.
Was Geppi associated with the Sports Museum next to the Warehouse way back? If so he had some financial problems and I believe PA bought his 1%.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
I am pretty sure it did happen. There are a few people who were in the original ownership group who are no longer listed, and I recall that Angelos’ original ownership interest was in the low 60’s. To my recollection, the details of the original group were laid out in the Bankruptcy Court filings when the group bought the team. I looked at it once, but it’s been a long time.
From memory, besides Clancy's 24%, there were about 10 minority owners with 1% stakes and Pam Shriver had 2%. So that would be 36% max to others and 64% to Peter. I remember several of the 1% owners had sold back to PA over the years.
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What an arrogant putz: What really my litmus test [for hiring] is, are the people good people, do they have perspective, are they reliable, are they trustworthy, are they competent and capable in what they do? It just so happened that I had the good fortune to run into Mike Elias in 2018 and he checked all those boxes.
In reality: Elias, who replaces former executive vice president Dan Duquette atop the Orioles’ baseball operations hierarchy, was part of an exhaustive six-week search by executive vice president John Angelos and ownership representative Louis Angelos.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-mike-elias-bio-20181114-story.html
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I'm not sure where to put this but didn't think it merited its own thread. Richmond has approved construction of a new 8,000 seat stadium to replace the existing AA stadium affiliated with the SF Giants. Hard date for opening in 2025. I got this from a VP of the construction Co awarded a $1 B contract to build it over the weekend. I only mention it because apparently the Nats tried to move AAA Rochester to Richmond in 2021 and were expected to try again when the new facility was done. Probably not good news for Norfolk if that happened. https://www.sportstravelmagazine.com/richmond-moves-forward-on-flying-squirrels-ballpark/
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Miami want an impact bat and MLB ready assets in return for pitching. Santander (571 AB) is more productive than Soler (270 AB) and Garcia (357 AB) who cost MIA $12 M and $13.25 M each. One can be traded and MIA saves money, gets more production, and gets younger: Santander (28 yrs), Soler (30 yrs), Garcia (31 yrs). Urias is reigning GG at 3B and his 403 AB replaces Rojas SS ABs traded to LA. Urias has better bat than Wendle (658 OPS) and Berti (662 OPS), is 28 with 4 years of control vs 32 for the other two. Lopez makes about $2 M less than Santander, is under the same team control (2 yrs) and stabilizes the SP staff while we determine what we have in Grod, Hall, Kremer, Bradish, and Means with Johnson and Povich coming. Santander and Urias are sell high candidates: will AS stay healthy again?; does Urias have a position going fwd with Gunner at 3B? Seems to make sense for both teams so what am I missing?
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Trey probably is as good as Mountcastle defensively at 1B already. If Mounty struggles offensively again in 2023 you have a replacement in hand. Trey would be primary DH so that allows Santander to be traded for pitching and frees ABs for Stowers and then Cowser. He has no splits diff so he fits the 1B, DH, COF mold better than the current mix of castoffs. He would cost about the same as Santander and IMO Santander isn't likely to be as healthy again this year unless he DHs alot. I would like to sell high on Santander and Urias for pitching from MIA. Impact bat plus GG 3B should get you one of the 4 available.
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To me the Frazier signing means Urias is the odd man out. Average MLB bat and reigning GG champ. MIA wants impact bat, Stowers replaces Santander in RF with Cowser not far behind. How likely is Santander to be healthy unless he spends a lot of time at DH. He will make about the same as Lopez I think. I don't see Stowers in LF, too much ground to cover. Cowser is Hays replacement with Beavers, Fabian, Kjerstead behind. Which pitcher does Santander + Urias get you, I think Lopez.
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:
Sure. Maybe they’ll have him practice at some of those spots this spring. But honestly, if they are serious about him adding those positions to his repertoire, they’ll be sending him to Norfolk to work on it.
Not to mention they already have a player with that flexibility on the OD roster (as of today) in Urias, a GG at 3B. We don't even know what we have in him yet after a little over 700 ABs in MLB after a decade in minors and Mexico. Westburg likely is 3rd best option at 3B (Gunner, Urias), SS (Mateo, Gunner), 2B (Frasier, Urias) defensively, maybe not at 2B but Ortiz is a GG candidate there and not far behind Westburg. ST shouldn't decide anything. ME wants him fully baked while Urias and Mateo are being further evaluated. Each of them only have about 700 MLB ABs. Then there is the development of Ortiz.
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1 hour ago, wildcard said:
413 PA, 869 OPS at AAA. He has passed Elias' criteria for being ready at about 200-250 PA.
No WC he has passed your presumed estimate of ME's criteria at AAA. I think ME is buying time with these paltry FA moves to see if Westburg starts hot or has a prolonged slump, is Ortiz for real is was it just a heater., can Mateo regain some of the discipline at the plate to OPS 700 and still play GG defense??????? IMHO and that is all it is, ME is trying to MAXIMIZE his prospects value before he decides who to trade. We will know what he decides at the deadline, not opening day.
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That and his "These O's Ain't Royal" tee shirt. He can suck it.
The Kansas City Royals right-hander unwittingly created a bit of controversy Tuesday night when he wore a T-shirt that read "These O's Ain't Royal" to a post-game press conference following his team's 2-1 victory over the Baltimore Orioles in Game 3 of the ALCS, putting them on the brink of sweeping the best-of-seven series.
The slogan was a play on Brown's rap song, "These Girls Ain't Loyal."
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What happened to Baker and Tate?
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6 hours ago, RZNJ said:
At this point leaning towards someone on the last year of a contract that also won’t require much capital back.
Or someone with an opt out after 2023 like ERod.
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I want an orange tee shirt with
pretty darn yech!
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I think Bradish and Kremer will be closer to their FIP of last year or around 4.0 ERA (150 INN each)
Gibson around 4.0 ERA and 175 INN
Grayson around 3.75 ERA and 125 INN
Wells around 4.25 ERA and 125 INN
Voth about 100 INN but around 4.0 ERA. That's about 825 INN at 4.0 ERA, about as blindly optimistic as I can be. the wildcard is Hall. I would like him to tandem with Grayson and stay on a starter schedule to manage Grayson's innings; GRod goes 3-4 and Hall goes 2-3 INN. Whichever one is going well gets more INN that day. You could switch roles from game to game to manage GRod INN. Voth, Akin, Watkins, Baumann, and the Norfolk scuttle fill 3 spots in the BP. To me this calls for another SP because you can't count on Means. I still think Urias to DET for ERod makes sense. They have no 3B on the roster and ERod has an opt out after this year with 4 yrs/$63 M left (14,18,16,15M). Why would he stay with the state they are in? Offer him $5 M to not exercise the buyout so 3/$54 M after $14 M in 2023. He hits FA in 2026 at age 33 for another contract.
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2 hours ago, SemperFi said:
Thanks for your model, correct me if I am wrong but you would then have an operating profit of around $80m in 2021 dollars? I came up with around $100m in 2022 but there are some expenses I cannot account for. Thanks!
Yes, in my view the Operating Income is profit, so $83 M for 2021. I haven't gone looking for 2022 yet. Note that for 4 of the last 8 years there was a loss. Also the difference between Salaries and Payroll incl Expenses is usually $15-20 M but in 2019 it was over $40 M, so there is variability there as just yet unexplained. Also, to Spirit of 66's comment, the profits in 2019 and 2021 make John look like a successful businessman, something he has not previously demonstrated.
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Year Revenue Salaries Payroll+Exp Rev-Exp Op Income Op Cost 2014 245 110 122 123 31.4 91.6 2015 239 118.9 137 102 8.8 93.2 2016 253 147.7 162 91 -2.1 93.1 2017 252 164.3 183 69 -26 95 2018 251 143 161 90 -6.5 96.5 2019 256 61.1 103 153 57 96 2020 115 23.9 43 72 -23 95 2021 251 45.7 66 185 83 102 I thought I would try to "estimate" the cost of doing business, i.e. Operating Cost. It turns out it is remarkably consistent. To determine what the Payroll + Expenses can be you need to work backwards from Revenue and Operating Cost, it's in the $150 M range (ignoring 2020). Differences between Salaries and Payroll+Expenses is generally in the $15-20 M range but was >$40 M in 2019, don't know why. Difference between Revenue-Exp and Op Income (Profit) is Op Cost. Looks like Payroll + Expenses needs to be about $125-$135 M to be sustainable so salaries in the $110-120 M range until revenue rises.
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I don't want year two of Adley to be spent still "seeing what we have".
Elias strikes me as being very strongly risk adverse. I don't think you can win in this division, with this budget, without taking some risks and them paying off.
While I agree with both these statements, Elias still has about 2 months to go before ST. Also, IMHO, the way he has operated so far this offseason seems to be shoring up the bottom 4 weakest positions from 2022 and biding his time the first half to see what Westburg, Cowser, Ortiz, and Norby do for a few hundred more ABs before pulling the trigger on a SP trade. Not my preference but that's what it looks like to me and kinda what Houston did the year after they broke out.
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17 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:
I’m down for the cause.
I have 2 big dogs and I can bring a trailer full to the party, just say when. I still have visions of that smug A**hole pounding his chest at 1B after a broken bat dying quail to RF, like he hit a F***ing grand slam. He and Tony B forever in my dog house.
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14 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
He's a big unknown at this point but I don't think Detriot is willing to call their rebuild a failure this quickly.
I'm not saying they are "failing" just that they won't contend next year and ERod has an opt out. With pitching prices as they were this offseason, he would be crazy not to opt out at his age. Det has to see that as well, hence not likely to get much more than salary relief for 1 year.
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What about ERod from Det? Four years left on a 5 yr/ $77 M contract, walked away from team for 3 months with little communication has to leave a bad taste. He also has an opt out after next year. With today's prices and Det likely not contending, he probably opts out. Shouldn't take much more than salary relief, maybe one from Voth-Watkins, etc.
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Why didn't Charles pitch in 2021?
Ramon Urias to Team Mexico in WBC
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Worrying about Urias to WBC is time wasted, on this team as currently constructed, he is likely the Util IF. Gunnar is the #1 prospect in baseball, do you really thing he is going to be moved around the IF? He is likely already nearly equal to Urias defensively and will only get better. You want Gunnar at SS so Urias can play 3B but Gunnar isn't likely better defensively than Ortiz, much less Mateo, and Jackson may be here in 2 years. Put Gunnar at his best defensive position and let him settle in. If Mateo fails to hit, replace him with Ortiz,