AnythingO's
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Posts posted by AnythingO's
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Recent revenue/salary: 2014 - 2015 - 2016 - 2017 - 2018 - 2019 - 2020 - 2021
$245M-$239M-$253M-$252M-$251M-$256M-$115M-$251M.
$107M $119M $147M $163M $143M $73M $52M $56M
Forbes reported small losses in 2016 and 2017 with attendance around 2.3 M vs current 1.9 M.
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Since it sounds like Gunnar is 3B, Urias moves to 2B or Util IF. Once that happens in the spring, our leverage decreases. Does Urias get you Rogers from MIA? Do you have to add a lottery ticket?
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7 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Whatever happened to Scottie baseball?
Don't know, Tony probably does
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45 minutes ago, oriole said:
So uhhh…are there fist fights at hangout nights? Lol
Well there was Scottie-baseball vs the guy with the audacity to wear a BJ's jersey in our section......lol
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13 minutes ago, justD said:
There's no doubt he comes up with some really cheezy stuff. They've got a loop of some of the phrases he put together for the GM Meetings earlier in the offseason, played on Power Alley on SiriusXM (Jim Duquette loves these).
But hey, even if the actual Oriole bird isn't a bird of prey, I did kinda run a message board in the early aughts called Birds of Prey, where about 10 of us from various places around the world would talk Os (and sometimes Ravens). Michael (weams) would just shake his head, tho he did join up to meet a bunch of us one year. We had someone from Germany, another from Venezuela, a closer one from San Francisco, another from Florida, one from Salisbury, one from Boston, and then a few of us from around Baltimore. A small group that still chats sometimes on facebook or twitter. The photo has a cup I made using our message board logo.
Fun memories to have brought up (to counter the jtrea ones lol)
Edit: I know I stretch the moderation rules here sometimes with my digressions. Sorry
I was on Birds of Prey for a bit after SunSpot became unbearable. Then someone there told me about OH. BoP went away shortly after. memories
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42 minutes ago, deward said:
Sort of sounds like Elias was feeling exuberant the day he used the word "liftoff" and is now regretting the word choice
Well you could probably say that hovercraft, helicopters, and hot air balloons also lift off, even though many here want to envision a rocket launch.
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I do expect the O’s to spend $150-175 mm/yr at peak, once they have been contenders for a couple of years and some of their key players start to get expensive.
Wasn't it speculated that the O's actually lost money when the payroll was $150-160+ M? That would be with attendance around 2.3 M vs the roughly 1.9+M of today. Prices are up but so are expenses likely. I don't see them breaking $150M anytime soon.
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Syndergaard is 4 years younger, probably signs for fewer years and lower AAV than Bassitt, was worth 2.2 WAR focusing on CV/SL and 2S but still throws 94.5. Not unreasonable to think he could add a tick to 4S with another year away from TJS and we seem to be good at refining CH and pitch selection. If the 3 yr, $36 M estimate is close to real, I would vote yes.
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19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Lopez and Rogers have 3-4 WAR upside. They aren’t going to get anyone better than that.
Agreed, If Mullins gets Lopez, what does Rogers take? He regressed significantly in K/BB and WHIP last year, threw fewer innings, and appears to have been on IL at the end of the season. Maybe a buy low guy. They don't seem to have much at 3B, does Urias work for Rogers? Would they give up 2 SPs for position guys, maybe have to add a lottery arm?
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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:
Well, yes. But what’s a “significant” increase in payroll? I don’t think $15-20 mm is that, when the team is at the bottom of the payroll ladder already.
Well he did say "a lot" of the "significant" increase will come from internal increases which seem to be in the $15-20 M range. So if "a lot" is $20 M then I would be stunned if JA authorizes more than an additional $30-$40 M in payroll. As for the $30 M Disney bonus, that's in the family coffers to deal with MASN, Louis, real estate rentals and occupancy shortfalls, etc.
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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:
Do you honestly think Elias is negotiating without knowing what he has to work with. John said Elias is in charge and will have the resources when the team is ready. He’s been pretty good on his work since he hired Elias.
JA has said Elias is in charge but I believe it was Elias that said he would have the resources when the team is ready.
Also, in 2018 when ME was hired PA hadn't stepped down yet and I believe both John and Louis were involved in the selection/ John didn't take charge until 2019 I believe.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
Fair point. Operating income is all that’s reported/estimated by Forbes. I don’t have any information about net income.
Do we know how much each team gets from MLB, revenue sharing? We should be able the estimate the MASN income I guess. Do we know what is included in Operating income? Is it just ticket sales, food, drink, conessions?
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So with a 13 man staff, what's the argument against having a GR-Hall tandem? Backend is Bautista, Perez, Tate, Baker, middle is Akin, Wells, long is Watkins. That leaves room for 6 starters. Two electric arms, both on restricted innings in 2023 but who you want on starter schedule rotation at least until someone fails to produce. GR for 3-4 inn, DL for 2-3 inn and rotate who opens vs who relieves to manage the totals. If all goes well you get 175-200+ inn from 1 rotation spot, gotta help the BP load. The lefty-righty mix could also upset who starts for the opposition, potentially limiting the ABs for their more dangerous hitters. So why not try it?
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I rate him A-. Along the line of SG's comment about doing more in the off-season to be .500 in 2022, to me the more telling "read" is what he did at the trading deadline. He removed pieces that were key in the O's success to that point and stood pat. Even then he judged the team to be not ready to compete for the playoffs. Sure, in hindsight, those pieces under-performed after leaving, but you can't assume the same if they had stayed. We still don't know what kind of trader he will be, otherwise he would be an A+ for his work to date.
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Elias has said "significantly escalate the payroll" and "alot of that is going to come through our own guys going into arbitration" back in mid-August. If Means, Arb, and pre-Arb is about $35 M, then I don't see the increase being more than that so $60-79.9 M.
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His defense is good enough to keep his bat in the lineup for next year. Next year we need to see what we have in Stowers and Cowser, also how fast Heston, Fabian, Beavers are coming. Santander was pretty healthy in 2022, was that because of his changed offseason regime or because he had about 25% of his ABs at DH to reduce wear and tear? Assuming he and Stowers are each 25% DH in 2023, along with Adley, would be a point against signing a DH type FA.
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4 hours ago, Frobby said:
The Arb raises are a little lower than you’re guessing. MLBTR is estimating our players will get $21.5 mm in arbitration, but to figure out “raises” you have to subtract what those players made this year, which is about $6.8 mm. So, that’s maybe $15 mm in Arb raises, not $20-25 mm. In that case, I guess you would think our FA budget is in the $35-45 mm range?
No, I would lower my FA estimate. I go back to his "a lot" qualifier. I think the FA pool could be plus $10-15 M over the inhouse increases. Now total payroll may increase through trades in addition to arb and FA so there is some more wiggle room.
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I would advise caution when estimating what Elias will or can spend. He has always put caveats on every optimistic comment he makes. The most concrete thing I have seen to date was back in August when he said:
“Our plan for this offseason has always been to significantly escalate the payroll,” GM Mike Elias said in an appearance on The Front Office Show on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM. “I think a lot of that’s going to come through our own guys going into arbitration, but also we plan to explore free agency much more aggressively
If the arb raises are in the $20-25 M range, IMO the FA pool is in the $30-35 M range. Given the family feud and unsettled MASN dispute, possible sale of GNATS, I think JA is going to keep the money from MLB, MASN, etc in the family coffers he controls. I am NOT blaming Elias if all he gets done is a $15 M SP, a $10 M bat, a backup C and some spare parts for the BP.
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4 minutes ago, wildcard said:
OK, then who do you think the O's DH should be next year?
Rutschman 25%, Stowers-Santander 50%, the rest rotated through Hays, Mullins, etc
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3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
Its on Frederick road. Not sure about Johnston.
Johnston is at Green Mount Cemetery also, on North Ave a few blocks East of N. Calvert St
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27 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
My point is that he is very unlikely to be worth $11M next year. Alot of his stats are treading in the wrong direction. 180 innings of Jordan Lyles in 2023 is not likely to be as valuable as it was in 2022 and you are paying $4M more for less production. As a team trying to get better, why spend that money and get less? Why not allocate that money to get better production?
I think you are unlikely to get much better production for the $10M Lyles costs you. Bringing him back doesn't stop you from getting 1-2 more starters. We could trade Mullins (Lopez) for example and go FA for the other but a better FA likely costs $15 M and multi-years. The trade would mean you need to spend $10M on a position player replacement. You can pencil in Grayson (100 inn), Kremer (125), Bradish (125). Even with a trade (Lopez?) and a FA eating 175 inn each you are short on SP innings. To me I look at Lyles combined with Means as 1 SP for 175 inn. If Means is ready to go in July you move Lyles for salary relief. Wells, Voth, Watkins are swing starters picking up when one of the SPs gets hurt or isn't performing.
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52 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:
I know you love to do this stuff and you are quite remarkably good at it. Unfortunately I will now be digging through various sources of baseball lore to find the references.... Thanks, Buddy.
First 2 prob Marty Cordova and Sir Sid Ponson, last might be the Natural with Redford. Then there is Pete Harnish stepping on a nail in a construction zone
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9 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
Exactly but I’m sure Angelo’s thought he won that one. Lol
PA gave DD a job 10 years after he was pushed out in Boston. Nobody else would. PA valued loyalty, probably felt DD was being disloyal by entertaining the overture.
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1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:
I think after Dan tried and failed to go to Toronto, Buck basically became co-GM. Maybe Brady was the 3rd GM. I think if Dan had just resigned, he would have had much more respect around baseball.
Dan was approached by Mike Rogers of Rogers Communication, the parent of the BJs MLB club, and was asked if he was interested in being in charge of the Rogers Center operations and the MLB team at 2-3 times his Orioles salary. DD was recommended to Rogers by a Board member of the NY Yankees. This was an obvious promotion and until PA, MLB franchises did not stand in the way of a MLB executive moving on for a promotion. DD went to PA with the offer just before the winter meetings. DD was neutered by PA at that point while PA tried to get the compensation from Toronto he was demanding. Didn't happen and PA refused to let DD go. DD did NOT approach Toronto, there wasn't even an open position at the time. This was Mike Rogers trying to get his man in position as an inter-family power play
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If/when we are sold....?
in Orioles Talk
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Option 4