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backwardsk

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Posts posted by backwardsk

    The housing market

    in Rants

    Posted

    Frontline did an excellent documentary (about two hours) last week.  A lot of it was about Powell.  They were able to get the head of the FRB -Minneapolis to answer questions.  
     

    To your point, they had a guy on there who’s business is debt restructuring and he expects business to boom soon.

    The housing market

    in Rants

    Posted

    On 11/17/2022 at 6:03 PM, Sports Guy said:

    Yep.  We got lucky.  Sold our house on a high and got the market as it was coming down.  Probably paid more than we would have in 3-6 months but no guarantee.

    Also got a 7/1 arm for 4.375.  Saved myself $500 a month in my mortgage payment.

    It’s been awhile since I’ve worked in originations.  What do they index these to now?  I know it’s no longer LIBOR.  And is it amortizing or interest-only?

    The housing market

    in Rants

    Posted

    On 3/14/2023 at 1:42 PM, Hank Scorpio said:

    I'll tell you what.... this banking BS may actually help the housing industry b/c Jerome Powell is going to be terrified to raise rates after this last week. 

    But my dear lord, we could all be in for a rough ride. The federal government is the arsonist & the firefighter here. 

    This is embarrassing and yet another example of how Dodd Frank was a horrific idea, and continues to be a horrific idea. ALL public companies should be required by law to disclose unrealized losses on their balance sheets so this crap can't happen. 

    Powell is evidently not scared. Rates go up a quarter point.

    Othani discussion

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    With the understanding it’s a pipe dream and won’t happen, in theory, he would be the guy to give $500M to.

    You are getting a top of the rotation arm and a middle of the order bat all in one.  Your strength is the farm system, so you have cost controlled guys supporting him.  You have a roster advantage, I believe, where you can carry a ninth bullpen guy. (Not sure if there is a caveat here, but it seems like it would be the case.  
     

    The rise in Japanese interest in the team would offset the cost more than say getting Soto.

    I’d absolutely do it.

    Lamar Rumors ****** Updated - Ravens & Jackson agree to 5 year deal******

    in Ravens

    Posted

    13 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

    If everyone can do it nobody would have one. IMO, Lamar has hurt himself in multiple ways by not having an agent. Endorsement deal is one way ….He’s the face of the Ravens yet he’s not doing any local commercials. Also hasn’t done any national ones. 
     

    DeCosta has been rumored to have said negotiations have been impossible.

    But Whatever 

    I’m sure if Jackson was all over the TV slinging Campbell’s Soup, AT&T, Under Armor, HuluTV, whatever, you would never comment that he should focus more on his mechanics and the playbook. You would never criticize him for that. 

    Lamar Rumors ****** Updated - Ravens & Jackson agree to 5 year deal******

    in Ravens

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hallas said:

    I understood what you meant.  If they give him the non-exclusive tag and the Bears don't want to give up #1 overall, the Bears have to find a way to get something resembling good value while maximizing the number of 2nd rounders and 2024/2025 picks they receive.  The Bears will have trouble doing that in a way that makes Baltimore receive a bad package.  While the value of trading for first rounders is diminished its value is not removed entirely, because every first rounder the Bears trade for is one they don't have to give up later.  On top of that, the Bears would also have to find a way to trade Fields.

     

    Carolina can offer them this year's first, next year's first, and their 2nd rounder I guess, but that would still be pretty bad value for first overall with a QB in play.  I would say that the Bears are best off making multiple trades and stockpiling as many firsts as possible, then trading Fields for another first or two.  They would probably end up with 3 or 4 first round picks and, the top 2 of which go to the Ravens, and a boatload of 2nd rounders, while keeping Lamar.  Meanwhile, the Ravens would most likely end up with 2 2023 picks including one in the top-10.   As long as one of the pick is at least top-10 or so, if we get 2 firsts in 2023 that would be good value for the Ravens because future picks get devalued pretty hard, and because this isn't a bad year to be drafting a QB.   Hypothetically the Bears could work some magic with trades and get 5 or 6 first rounders in the 20s or 30s by trading Fields and trading down, but this would likely involve multiple trades because the teams with a need at QB pick much earlier than 20s.  Probably at least 4 trades.  Really unlikely.  I'm guessing they'd have to trade down from 1:1 twice or 3 times, and trade Fields, and then trade the return for Fields down once more.  In that scenario the Ravens would really be screwed because they'd only get total compensation equal to pick 8 for Lamar.  But the number of deals required for the Bears to do that makes it really unlikely.  They'd do well to trade down once for 2 later round firsts and a 2nd, trade Fields for a first, and sign Lamar, keeping a first rounder and getting some extra 2nd rounders in the process.

    I don’t think I follow you. Sorry.  I’m looking at it from the Bears perspective.  They want Jackson.  Baltimore gives him the non-exclusive tag. Chicago puts the best FA deal in front of him.  They know they will lose two first rounders as compensation.

    What’s to stop them from working out a deal with a team that wants the number 1 overall pick?  I used Carolina as an example.  But it could be Indy or Vegas or anybody else.  If I’m Chicago and Carolina offers me #9, 2023 2nd, 2024 1st, 2025 1st, and Brian Burns, why wouldn’t Chicago do that deal if they know they will lose the first rounder anyway?  Wouldn’t they have more incentive to move it in this scenario?

    Lamar Rumors ****** Updated - Ravens & Jackson agree to 5 year deal******

    in Ravens

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Hallas said:

     

    This could work, but the Ravens would likely still get good value unless the Bears took a horrendously bad trade, which they have no incentive to do.  It will be hard to come up with a deal that involves more than 1 2nd rounder that gets them anything approaching good value.  The Lions, for 6, 18, and their 2nd rounder is a likely possibility, but the Ravens are still getting decent value getting picks 6 and 18 there.  Not as good but decent.  Another possibility would be to trade him to Houston for Houston's 2nd rounder.  Maybe give up a mid-round pick with it.  They give up pick 2 instead, and get a high 2nd rounder too.

     

    I guess they could concoct a deal where they swap 1sts with someone that has 2 or 3 2nd rounders, and then throw in next year's 2nd rounders and the following year's 1st and 2nd rounder.  I'm not certain that is fair value but it would be one way of maximizing trade value.  They would have to have the deal ready to go by the time Lamar's  pen is in hand with the offer sheet though.

    I was talking about a scenario where the non-exclusive tag is applied.

    Say that they give him that tag.  He negotiates a good deal with the Bears that Baltimore won’t match.  The Bears could then trade out of the number 1 pick with, let’s say, Carolina.  Then Baltimore would get the 2023 #9 and the 2024 1st rounder (in this scenario, Chicago would likely have their own and Carolina’s).

    Lamar Rumors ****** Updated - Ravens & Jackson agree to 5 year deal******

    in Ravens

    Posted

    What would prevent the Bears from going after Jackson, but at the same time, trading back from the number one pick?

    And, with the nonexclusive pick, can the team choose which two first rounders they get.  For example, a bad franchise signs the FA. They have the third and 32nd pick in the current year draft. Can the team losing the free agent pass on the current year 32nd pick and claim the following year’s first?

    Lamar Rumors ****** Updated - Ravens & Jackson agree to 5 year deal******

    in Ravens

    Posted

    2 hours ago, joelala said:

    Do you mean Daniel Jones, I assume? To have him and Aaron Rogers in the same tier is in and of itself wild to me. I’d start by removing Cousins from the list altogether and replacing him with both Lamar and Jalen Hurts. Hurts particularly. You’re cherry picking one pass that slipped out of his hand in desperation, but he looked totally in control of  that offense on the world’s biggest stage. He’s a beast. 

    If you’re talking about the last play in the Super Bowl, it looked like his plant foot slipped and he didn’t get much on the throw.  Guys were slipping and sliding all night on that turf.

    In a make believe scenario where there is no rookie contracts, the league was being redrafted, and I want to be competitive for the next five seasons, I’d go:

    Mahomes

    Burrow

    Allen

    Lawrence

    Jackson

    Hurts

    Hebert (I could be talked into rearranging 4-7)

    Prescott

    Watson

    Carr

    Cousins

    Murray

    Rodgers

    Wilson

     

     

    MLB competition committee to vote on rule changes Friday

    in MLB

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Frobby said:

    A game ended in a tie today when the ump called a violation on the batter on a 3-2 count, bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th.  Imagine that happening during the regular season!

    For the first several ST games it seems like it’s getting called less than 1% of the time. It’s good to see the umpires enforce it consistently instead of whenever they feel like it like the previous rules to keep the batters in the batter box. 
     

    In the Braves/Red Sox game, did the batter use his timeout? 

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