backwardsk
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Posts posted by backwardsk
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7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Weird how places with the strictest quarantine rules seem to have the biggest rise in cases and deaths, isn't it? Cases have been going up because of the availability of testing. As for deaths, it's widely being reported that hospitals have a financial stake in reporting deaths as COVID19-related, when many of these deaths had underlying and serious problems before they passed.
I'm sure the initial social distancing measures slowed the virus, but what is not being considered in my opinions are all the other things that have most likely spiked due to these quarantine measures due to the length of them. Suicides, alcoholism, drug abuse, physical and sexual abuse are certainly on the rise with people stuck together with very little outlets.
All in all, it's time to open things up and get back to normal in my opinion.AS for baseball and fans, James Earl Jones said it best in Fields of Dream.
"People will come Ray. The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. America has rolled by like an army of steamrollers. It has been erased like a blackboard, rebuilt and erased again. But baseball has marked the time. This field, this game: it's a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good and that could be again. Oh...people will come Ray. People will most definitely come.”
Shouldn’t the reported mortality rate go down then as more cases go up? The reported US mortality rate was 4% less than a month ago. Why are there more deaths this year than a normal year plus COVID deaths if the hospitals are juking the stats as you claim? Is there a significant reduction in deaths by other causes?
I’d counter that the reported 75k deaths is less than actual.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
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22 minutes ago, Ripken said:
Some disclaimers here. No one, including and especially the CDC and WHO, have been right about much. I'm not in the health care field or a related science. I value any opinion on this. We're all throwing darts at some level hoping to get lucky. Appreciate the discussion. Ready?
I absolutely disagree with 6%. I don't believe it is anywhere near that. I imagine once we realize how many walking carriers are out there we'll see mortality is under 1%, even well under for "healthy people". I also believe the number of reported deaths is higher than what is true. The majority of deaths are elderly and most of the rest are health-compromised people. And I'm not making light of death, just discussing where we are. It really wiped out some nursing homes and the like. The most vulnerable need to stay home for now but, thankfully, elderly people are not a measurable part of the economy.
Beyond that, I think everyone waiting for testing and vaccine(s) are going to be disappointed. Vaccines take time. The reports of progress and expediting the process are great but I really doubt it's coming soon and even then it's not 100% effective. It's a weapon in our arsenal against this but not the answer. Testing has been wildly inconsistent with times and accuracy. Further, what good is a test if, 10 minutes after you take one, you go near another human, or go to a public place, or in any way expose yourself in some manner? We're passing this thing while being asymptomatic too. Unless we really come up with, I dunno, heat cameras or something that are highly capable of spotting this in real time, tests are helpful but not the answer either.
We need the healthy people to go out there, live normal lives, precautions being used, but they need to get this thing and prevail until the virus runs into corners where it can't spread anymore and it just dies off. That's herd immunity and it's the only real solution. Yes, people will die. People have already died. People will die no matter what path we take. Beyond all of that, two-thirds of new cases in NY were from people staying at home and social distancing. Think about that. We're already doing herd immunity. After a few months of being trapped inside, and once warm weather gets here, people will get on with living and that's what we need. Calling it a war is accurate. You send a million young people to battle, knowing 100,000 will die, to prevent an invasion that could kill 10 million.
All the previous pandemics (yes, not as severe) followed the same path and took up to 18 months or so to go away. Summer helps, some treatments have some good results, but in the end, the virus just stops hurting us, outside of some mutated strains here and there. Epidemiologists and Virologists have admitted as much.
Then there's this and I mean it sincerely (not being a dick): Walk me through how staying home 6-18 more months and completely trashing the economy isn't a far more devastating outcome. Flattening the curve was just that: slow the initial infections so we can load up on supplies, learn about the virus, and get going on every possible level of prevention and cure, while not overloading the health care facilities. We've done that. It's time to get going.
I appreciate the discussion. The 6% rate is reported deaths over reported cases. I agree that the reported number of cases is way less than actual. But by how much? Do 7M+ Americans have it currently? I don’t know. As far as the death count being overinflated, why are there more deaths than normal plus documented COVID-19 cases?
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html
The economy is going to go through hell. I thoroughly understand how scary it is to be out of work. I was out of work for 4.5 months last year.
I believe the administration put out a sensible plan to open the economy back up. But we have states like Georgia that are not following those guidelines. Opening things too quickly without being able to test and trace is going waste the past two months, IMO.
The curve has been flattened when you look at the country as a whole. But for most of this period, NY lead with the cases. Non NY cases and deaths are continuing to rise. More than doubling in many states over the past few weeks.
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16 hours ago, Ripken said:
Yep. Right here. There's caution and there's beyond that. Herd immunity is the answer. Firing up the economy (safely, of course) has to happen.
Walk me through how opening up the economy safely and herd immunity work together. From what I understand, to get to herd immunity, 70-90% of the population needs to be infected. Currently the mortality rate is 6%. Now, I definitely believe the amount of cases is underreported due to lack of testing and those not showing symptoms. So let’s say instead of the 1.25M reported cases, there are actually 2.5M people with it and the mortality rate is 3%. We’re talking 6-9M deaths.
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This series has been on point. Never was a big Jordan guy. But this show brings me back to my childhood. I’m loving it.
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7 minutes ago, orioles119 said:
You keep saying schools closed... but you do realize that they are referring to the 2019-2020 academic year? There's literally just 4 weeks left of school. I know there are rumors about next year, but don't act like it's for the rest of 2020.
I’m willing to sacrifice everything for school to start in the fall. If I had to choose between 2020 baseball and school starting in the fall, I’m choosing the latter all day, everyday.
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On 2/14/2020 at 12:23 PM, atomic said:
I don't think that is the easiest schedule as the Ravens will play the Patriots and the Chiefs while the Bengals will substitute the Dolphins and the Chargers for those two teams. And the Browns will get the Raiders and the Jets.
It’s an easier schedule. The Ravens get to play the Bengals and Browns. The Browns and the Bengals have to play the Ravens.
Didn’t you say the Patriots we’re going to be bottom feeders?
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That’s tough. Does the entire MLB depend on the Orioles turnout? If yes, then I would pay. If no, then I wouldn’t for this year’s team. If this was 2012-2016, then I would pay.
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17 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:
Your right, I mispoke, but I was NOT trying to mislead anybody.
I believe Australia was ahead of the rest of the counties and was using Hydroxchoroquine for treatments.
I don’t believe you were intending to mislead anyone. I believe you were taking information from a good source and misreading/misinterpreting it. I felt the need to correct it.
The world mortality rate is 7%, while the US is 6%. The world rate will move as the US moves because the US has 1M+ more reported cases than the next highest country. Or, put another way, more reported cases than the next six countries combined. And as I showed before, the US mortality rate has been trending up.
Australia has done a good job of preventing the spread. If they were a state in the US, they would be in the bottom half of reported cases.
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8 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:
Just going by the countries listed on the chart.
Which is a small subset of countries. You said lowest rate of any nation besides Germany.
Pakistan, Israel, Australia, Portugal, Malaysia, Denmark, Norway, Austria, all have lower rates.
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45 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:
I guess he chooses to believe the numbers provided by the Koreans which is government controlled, just like China and bogus.
According to John Hopkins, the US has the 2nd lowest mortality rate due to COVID, than any other nation, except Germany.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
But, hell, why do we let facts get the way.
Turkey? Japan? India?
The US is at 6% (this is reported deaths over reported cases) today. April 22, it was 5.5%, April 17, it was 5%, April 13, it was 4%.
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7 hours ago, survivedc said:
So is Keith Law wrong or not?
I didn’t think Ploufe made up that scenario out of thin air. Law’s sources most likely denied it because they weren’t ready to make the proposal public.
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Both Mike Wright and Aaron Brooks pitched last night in the KBO. Wright gave up 2ER in 5 IP with 7 K’s. Brooks gave up 1 run in 5.2 IP and 6 k’s.
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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:
Name some names, foolio.
Shut up, Lil man.
Seriously, that’s the name.
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35 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:
I think he's very good for the top end players. I would not, however like to be a Boras client as the #3 guy at a position with Boras also representing #1 or #2.
I don’t know. I think Ryu did pretty well for himself at 4/80. Keuchel did well too.
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44 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:
Unless they can be special team impact players.
It’s a numbers game though. They have McLaurin, Sims Jr, Harmon, Gandy-Golden. These guys aren’t going to beat out these four. Then they have Latimer who they brought in and excels at STs. That’s five. That may be all they carry. If they do carry six, then they have Cam Sims and Quinn ahead of them who have ST experience. A lot of things would have to go wrong for these UDFAs to have a shot, IMO.
I would be they keep five WR with Gibson and McKissick (who may be vulnerable) as pass catching RBs.
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4 minutes ago, Going Underground said:
Do you know if they are going to rebroadcast the games at a more favorable time in the EST zone?
I am looking for Mr.Wright.Mike Wright.
It doesn’t appear so. But I may record some and play later.
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KBO starts tomorrow morning (1:00 AM EST)! Got my DraftKings lineup in. Straily and Kim, baby!
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9 hours ago, scOtt said:
Best Mexican I ever had was out in California up in the Napa Valley. Their carnitas were super tender and juicy inside and crispy as potato chips on the outside. And a big tray of all the fixin's. To. Die. For.
They turned out pretty damn tasty. Did it for 8 hours. Next time, I’ll do it for 10 and add orange juice. I have lunch for the rest of the week.
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Not only is he related to Randy Moss’s son, he IS Randy Moss’s son. lol.
I do think he has the best chance of making the team. They have two UDFA from last year who have a good chance at making it this year (Hentges and Sims JR). I see the WR having an uphill battle to make the team.
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Red Rifle to Dallas.
Cam is looking to sit out until a number 1 goes down.
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Loaded up the crockpot this morning with some pork to make carnitas. First time experimenting with the recipe.
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7 minutes ago, weams said:
Watch the doc
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This Project 11 show on ESPN about Alex Smith is pretty intense. What a tough dude.
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On 2/19/2020 at 7:45 PM, PeteCanes said:
que? I just lost a bid for a Mordecai Brown for $35.00.
What condition was it in? I saw on for over $500.
How and when will MLB resume in 2020? Update: Owners Agree - Proposal Submitted to Union
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Are elective surgeries still not allowed where you live? The ban here in VA was lifted on May 1. My father in law had shoulder surgery right before the ban. He was still allowed to go in for therapy sessions in April. He had the option to use telehealth. (Would love to see this method grow. It would be a silver lining in all of this). But he chose to go in.
In my job, we were never allowed to work from home unless the government shut down from snow. Now, I wonder if I’ll ever go back. This forced adoption of telework is going to have a significant impact on commercial real estate and the automotive/automotive-related industries.