Malike

I hope you take the boat to Vermont and the Lake Champlain Monster attacks you.

I live about 45 mins away I love that town. HoF is truly the best. Go to the boxing HoF it's close by.

They've used 16 starters this season but I personally don't believe Crochet is making 10-12 starts after the ASB so I doubt they do it.

I don't think it happens because he pitched 12 innings last year and the CWS basically killed themselves the way they've used him, rendering him likely unavailable for a stretch run. If they do the right thing and trade him in the offseason he's going to command a big package.

Your first paragraph is correct. If you have time you should really read the article I linked, it should answer all of your questions and I'm at work so have really limited time depending on when the next emergency happens or BS drunk annoying call, etc.

I don't disagree with the second point, but there are still some teams who can buy any players and sign premier IFA who make dumb decisions and might give up the farm.

Yes, he's going to command a top 100 prospect, we have 3 of them and he's going to command a ML ready guy with a lot of control, we have a lot of those.

This is a sellers market with all the teams still chasing wild cards. I doubt it comes down.

With Glass(now) going on the IL today and Yamamoto possibly done for the season, I expect the Dodgers are going to be in on anyone we might be in on.

Probably going to see him against Imanaga and Steele in the next two days. I'm surprised Cowser isn't in the lineup tonight with 2 LHP on the mound the next two days but I'd imagine he's going to start over Mullins or Kjerstad in those games.

I think most people would like Nardi but he's probably the least available option out of the pen there with 4 years of control. They'd probably deal him but he wouldn't be gotten for scraps.

We aren't the only team with talented prospects that will be interested in Crochet. I personally believe it will take one of the top 3 prospects and Kjerstad/Cowser. It will not be cheap and they are looking to get a real headstart on a rebuild and this is their biggest chip.

If Gunnar had a LA of about 15 vs 9 he'd probably be dusting Judge in HRs and walking away with the MVP. It's crazy how good he is even with a less than awesome launch angle.

He needs to start showing he can spit on off-speed out of the zone, if he can do that he'd probably walk a ton and strike out much less. He's easy to fool right now, but he's young. It looks to me like he's in a mode now where he's just sitting on off-speed and he's not driving fastballs down the middle because he's protecting against off-speed pitches. He's been fouling a lot of hittable fastballs away.

That's certainly possible. This chart supports that, but he would probably need to walk a bit more than he is now.

Get well soon, Chuck. We look forward to your return.

Cowser has two important things going for him for predictive stats in barrel and chase, they are both excellent, I think the problem right now is the whiff and K% that is holding him back. The article talks about the quantity of contact and despite him having excellent barrels and chase rates he's simply just whiffing and punching out too much. I don't know if it's because of pitch type or handedness of pitchers and I'm on the way out so I can't dig too much, but there are definitely some promising things ahead if he can put more balls in play.

The article says that is what his Marcel Projections are for. It also says the best way to tell if a player is having a breakout as a hitter, barrel and chase are the best predictors and K/BB rate is the best for pitchers.

This is good reading. According to Tom Tango, MLB Senior Database Architect of Stats, expected stats were designed to only be descriptive. If the goal was to be predictive, they would have been designed differently. Expected stats tell you what the likely outcome should have been. They are not predictive so use them accordingly. Properly Diving Into Expected Stats | Community Blog (fangraphs.com)

Right, so he's not even among the unluckiest players in the sport. Does 31 points make him an .800 OPS guy instead of the .600 guy he's been for 2+ months?

I said I'd platoon him. That means I'd not play him much against same-side pitchers in case there is any confusion on what a platoon bat is.

If a players xWOBA is higher than the wOBA a player is considered unlucky. Cowsers xWOBA is 31 points higher than his wOBA, how unlucky has he been?

It should be a possibility as soon as this season. If this team thinks they have a real chance to win the World Series, they aren't going to roll him out there against LHP.

I feel like you're smarter than you are acting right now. None of the blue on Irvins page that I talk about are expected even though his xstats are terrible, they are descriptive. Do you not understand that or are you just being obtuse? Nothing about Irvins statcast page suggests he's been serviceable. He's bottom of the barrel in every important category K, HH, Avg EV, Whiff, Barrel, Chase, Pitch values. How could anyone take a look at his page and think he's unlucky?

Okay, I say use him properly, ie in a platoon and you laugh like that's a silly notion when it's a likely outcome, but then acknowledge it's a possibility. Strange. He shouldn't play every day if he's OPS'ing .600 on a team that is trying to win a World Series, you play the guys who are hitting.