Pickles

2B. Orioles come in at 14. Here's the write-up. Holliday projected at 280 PA and 1.2 WAR. Personally, I'd take the over on both pretty significantly. SS projections have not been released; it will be interesting to see how much time at SS they project for Holliday. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-second-base/ Ooh, shiny! The best prospect in baseball gets a lackluster projection, but as you can imagine, the error bars here are considerable. ZiPS and Steamer are understandably restrained in their guesses for rookies because plenty of them struggle in their first bite at the major league apple. Holliday certainly looks like a stud, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be a top hitter right away, even if his long-term prognosis is blindingly bright. Luckily for the O’s, they have a nice contingency plan. Westburg might be too good of a hitter to profile as a utility infielder long-term, but in 2024, he’ll rotate between second and third depending on which of the team’s other precocious youngsters click immediately. We actually project second, third, and short to all be time-shares for the O’s, with Holliday, Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson shuttling around the three spots. Urías fits into the mix as well, though likely with the least playing time out of the four. The top farm system in baseball could complicate matters; Coby Mayo needs somewhere to play too, and that might be third base. That puts a squeeze on second indirectly. In my mind, though, Westburg is a great bet for above-average production, and Holliday is going to get a full season of playing time even if he starts slow. It’s a tough puzzle to solve, but also a rewarding one; there aren’t many wrong answers here.

As others have said, the bust rate on pitchers is too high to justify passing on a guy like Holliday.

If service time weren't a thing, the roster would probably look differently. They're more worried about putting the best team on the field in Sept. rather than April, rightfully so.

It works for 4-6 weeks.

Correct. Stowser is going to get the least amount of abs, many of them against LHPs ironically.

I think as of now, all three make it and they only carry 4 infielders (minus 1b) to start the season.

I guess that's my point. I don't think it's a binary choice between those guys. I think it's: Mountcastle O'Hearn Westburg Henderson Urias Mateo Adley McCann Hays Mullins Santander Cowser Stowers

Who do you think they give a poo about retaining? Wong? McKenna? Stowers?

Teams regularly carry 5 outfielders.

Yes. Kjerstad will not. They'll be fine with Urias, Westburg, Henderson, and Mateo for 6-8 weeks.

Excuse me, I meant Stowers. I'm going to be doing that all year.

I think Stowers makes it over Wong, and I'm not sure Teheran makes it, but I co-sign the rest of this.

Why do you think you're these guy's union rep?

Most of the board was. Elias is the better poker player.

It was never a "final say" for scouts either though. It's perfectly reasonable to look at a guy with Mayo's size and say it would be unusual for him to be a good 3b. I know Tony is high on his ability to stick at 3b. I'm far more skeptical. Jim Thome played 500 games at 3b in the majors, but I'm sure we'd all agree he was not best suited for 3b.

Body comp figures heavily into Sig's evaluation system.

It's really a lot of splitting hairs. They were both 1-1 draft picks and unanimous #1 overall prospects. Obviously, they're both extremely talented. A preference for one or the other is fine, but I don't think it's fair to say Holliday clearly outclasses Adley as a talent.

You are free to have your opinion. Common sense would suggest the 24 year old with more experience is more "ready" than the 20 year old with less experience.

Well what is "talent" if it doesn't manifest into value? Adley has more arm and glove talent. Their power is pretty comparable, while Holliday does have a better hit tool and speed. While you value Adley appropriately for being a catcher, you don't seem to attribute it to talent. But it is. It takes talent to be as good defensively as Adley is, and nobody else in the system, at this point, projects to provide the defensive value that Adley does.

I'm not sure he's more talented than Adley. Adley was a consensus #1 pick. Talent-wise they're pretty close, imo, though sure, Gunnar projects as a better pure hitter. But Adley was 4+ years older with a lot more high-level experience.

Adley finished 12th in the MVP race his rookie season despite missing 6 weeks. I'll take the over on Holliday.

I also don't think he's near as read as Adley was to hit the ground running.

I thought that prior. I think 4-6. There's still a risk, but it's worth it imo.

Confident enough to roll the dice.

He doesn't go down for 2 weeks. He's down a month.