Pickles
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Posts posted by Pickles
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
Yeah, you can't prop up durability issues for one player and ignore the other player's issues. If @Picklescontinues to ignore that, then he's not interested in having an honest conversation.
I like Santander, too. As someone who's historically hated the Orioles kinky obsession with Rule 5 guys with a passion, he's an exception. But he's not a core guy, I'm not sure why anyone would think that he is.
I'm not doing that at all. I have at no point said Santander the greatest most durable thing ever.
I've pointed Snell makes a lot of money and is injured all the time. That doesn't reflect on Santader.
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4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
He is a guy saying no to Snell partly because of durability and yet he tbh not Santander is someone to hang onto even though he has as bad, if not worse, durability issues. I don’t think logic is part of this.
He likes AS. Ok. But rationally, no GM(if budget wasn’t easy), would turn down AS for Snell if they had our prospects and long term outlook between the OF and pitching.
You're not factoring in a few things. Like the 20 million owed to Snell over the next 14 months. And the fact that Santander has an extra year of team control.
The money is a huge part of this.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
Mullins is seen as having more value by the fangraphs nerds. That doesn’t mean it’s reality (btw, I think his value is high but that fangraphs article means nothing in the real world)
Well, no, but ironically you agree with it. And so do I. That doesn't make it an indisputable fact of course.
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
Maybe you should replace your car today. It'd get you away from making posts on here for a few hours.
dErPiTy dErP
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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
He's at 61 innings this year, I think that's more than 5 innings a month.
Pedantry. I wasn't giving exact numbers.
Saying he's got a great FIP isn't all that impressive when he isn't on the mound.
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3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
How's Santander going to be more valuable next year? And how is Mullins more valuable this year than last year when he's not nearly as good?
How is the fact that players are replaceable not a reason to trade them? I have so many questions here.
Go look at the trade value thread that was just on the board. Mullins is seen as more valuable now as oppossed to last August because he's fully established himself as an above average Ml CFer.
If Santander could do the same in regards to be a COF, and maintain health and performance anonther 12 months, he'll definitely have more value next year, and he still wouldn't be considered a rental.
Because I could replace my car today. It doesn't mean I have to. Is that really a difficult concept to grasp?
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Just now, Moose Milligan said:
How can you say K rates are all well and good but then there needs to be a time to deliver on the field? Isn't a high k rate delivering on the field?
You know what I mean. Saying he strikes out a bunch of guys (in the 5 innings he pitches a month) is kinda missing the big part of the picture there, which is the 5 innings a month.
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24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Please remember to make it's own thread if a trade is actually made. Thanks.
This makes me think you've heard something.
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5 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
Nah, I think the familiarity has a lot to do with this board's interest in Snell. I hardly saw a mention of Luis Castillo on here in recent weeks.
I agree that Santander isn't a guy that brings back much. Solid player but there's nothing outstanding about him. And yes, very replaceable.
I don't want to trade Santander now because I think he's more valuable next year. In the same that Mullins is more valuable this year than last even though he played much better last season. So I agree he isn't going to bring back some top 50 prospect.
And yes, he's replaceable. Everybody is replaceable. That's not a reason to trade anybody.
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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Snell has 5 seasons worth of fWAR that are higher than Santander this year and he is .2 behind him this year despite playing a lot less.
I'm looking at BWAR. You know the one that looks at actual results and not hypotheticals.
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13 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Of course it’s part of it. You make room for him, room that I believe we have now but obviously the team doesn’t.
But fine, if you want to take him out.
Santander has a career fWAR of 2.7, with about half coming this year (and a lot of that the last month I bet). Snell has a career WAR of 14.7.
We are a team loaded with OF prospects and basically nothing pitching.
Snell has high K rates, an FIP of under 4 for 4 of the last 5 years. He misses bats at a high rate.
The issues for him are walk rate(was better in Tampa) and the lack of innings. However, he’s not being paid that much money. I agree about the injury issues (same issue for Santander) but you aren’t going to trade your best prospects for pitching and the team isn’t going to spend major dollars over the long term to bring in pitching. Snell represents a high upside and Santander is an extremely minimal cost to acquire that upside.
He is a clear and obvious upgrade for our pitching staff and he’s a better player than Santander. The only reason this can even be remotely discussed is because of the Padres money situation, something the Orioles don’t have an issue with.
You know K rates, and FIP, and all that, are all well and good, but there comes a time when you actually have to deliver on the field, and Snell's rarely done that. Again, he's about to be 30 and he's had one season of his career worth more than 1.5 WAR.
I'm not convinced he's a better player than Santander going forward. He certainly hasn't been this season.
We need to look at getting some starting pitching. Trading Santander could be part of that. But the starting pitching we should be targeting should be cost-controlled and service-time controlled. Neither of which describes Snell.
Even think what is the upside? He pitches great for us next season, we make the playoffs, and he walks in FA?
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1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:
I don't think anyone's fetishizing him. I wouldn't mind if we got him depending on what was given up.
The interest in Snell stems from the fact that he's got AL East experience. I'd say people more fetishize the "OMG HE HAD SUCCESS IN THE AL EAST" aspect more than anything. It's not because Snell is a good pitcher, it's because he's done well in the division and people seem to think that is huge. I'm willing to bet that if Snell hadn't played for the Rays and was just some dude who'd never set foot in the AL East, there wouldn't be this amount of interest.
His FIP, as mentioned earlier is 3.56. He strikes out a lot of batters. The walks are concerning, but I think he does a decent job of keeping the ball in the park and he's hard to hit.
He's a good pitcher. I don't think anyone thinks that he's the Cy Young pitcher that he was in 2017, that seems to be a bit of an outlier. But he makes this team better.
Now, he talks like he's got 3 functioning braincells and appears to be a doofus. As a guy, I don't like him. But I'd take a team full of convicted felons if it meant a World Series.
I think it's the Rays thing and people actually know who he is. If he pitched in Milwaukee people here would be a lot less aware of him.
He's not a bad pitcher.; he's clearly talented. He's probably a bad target though, considering his current team is going all in to win, and want to dump at the same time. They clearly don't think he's doing much to help them win.
He's expensive. He's hurt all the time. And his last four seasons, and really his entire career with one exception, has been fairly pedestrian.
If he was passing through waivers, maybe- MAYBE- you could convince me to take on his salary.
But giving up a cost-controlled and solid young major leaguer like Santander, no. That's insanity.
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5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Santander has had amazing availability in his career. Definitely should be bringing that up.
And yet, his four months this season have been more valuable than any season of Snell's entire career, save for the Cy Young year.
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Just now, Sports Guy said:
Your commitment to being clueless is even more impressive.
The idea that you think Stowers plus Snell is worse than Santander is horrible.
Maybe you are also Wildcard and are obsessed with the recent sample size.
We already have Stowers. We don't need to trade for Snell to use Stowers. It's not part of the equation. Of course you try to make it a part of the equation, because your proposed equation is wildly out of balance.
So you consider the last four years to be a small sample size?
That's..... a take. Clearly a cluefull take too.
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1 minute ago, btdart20 said:
I'd be down for trading Santander for someone better than Snell too. But I just don't see that happening.
Lyles FIP is 4.41 this year (career 4.69). 88 ERA+ in 2022 and 82 career.
Snell's FIP is 3.56 this year (3.56 career too). 86 ERA+ in 2022 and a 117 ERA+ career. I suspect Snell will 'regress' to his career average. Lyles' regression goes the other way.
Snell's health is a concern. But is it more concerning than any other SP with quality movement to get key outs?
If Snell had been in our organization, Tony would have written 15,000 words by now about how we should turn him into Arthur Rhodes. And he'd probably be right.
He's had one season, otherwordly sure, where he's actually been good. And yeah, a lot of that is availability. Are we to believe he'll be healthier as he gets older and more injured continue to pile up?
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2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:
I always like it when Pickles gets uppity.
Snell is fine. This thread is exhausting.
The threads good. This should be our most interesting- not necessarily active- deadlines since Elias got here.
There's a million different ways to go, and that's why there are so many opinions.
But I am infinitely puzzled by the fetishization of Snell.
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2 minutes ago, waroriole said:
His FIP is 3.56. His xERA is 3.47. Who do you think Santander is bringing back?
Somebody not making 16 million dollars to be oft-injured and basically replacement level. Seems like we could do that on the waiver wire, and save 16 million dollars.
For the record, I'm not looking to trade Santader either.
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1 minute ago, bpilktree said:
He had two awful games which is probably the reason why is WAR is lower then it really should be. When you don't pitch lot of innings easier for outlier to really effect your numbers. He gave up 9 runs and 4 homers in 1/3 of an inning over a two game stretch. The other 34 innings he has given up 7 runs and 3 homers total.
Not pitching a lot of innings seems kinda like one of his main problems.
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1 minute ago, waroriole said:
We can call up Stowers to replace Santander. The trade makes us better overall.
Or, hear me out, we could trade Santander for somebody who is actually good, and isn't way over paid, and still call up Stowers. Crazy, right?
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1 minute ago, btdart20 said:
Nope. Snell would be better than any of our current healthy starters.
Giving up Santader, which I believe was proposed earlier, would make us worse. Santandar has more WAR this season in 4 months than ANY season of Snell's entire career- with the exception of his Cy Young year, which was 5 years ago.
And just FYI, BWAR has Lyles as twice as valuable as Snell for this year, and Tyler Wells 8x. Hell, Voth has been 3x.
Snell's not that good. He's always hurt. And he's way over paid.
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11 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:
Here’s hoping the Pads still want/need to cut salary and will be trading Snell to us.
Your commitment to making this team worse and more expensive is impressive.
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Well, as long as they're dreaming, why don't they just for Rutschman too?
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6 hours ago, Frobby said:
I could have sworn that Kevin Brown said last night that Adley had tied the Orioles’ rookie record for consecutive games of reaching base twice, but looking at the list, I don’t see any rookies with 9 such games. So, Adley holds that record so far as I’m concerned. Granted, it’s one of the most obscure records ever conceived. Now let’s see how far he can take it.
As to the question of whether Adley is “white hot,” in the nine games he’s hit .423/.556/.692, for a 1.248 OPS. Looking at the 14 others who had a 9 game streak of reaching base twice, 9 had a higher BA during their streak, 7 had a higher OBP, 9 had a higher SLG, 8 had a higher OPS. Certainly not an outlier on the low end (that would be Ken Singleton at .364/.523/.515 or Boig Powell at .346/.595/.462). So, since only 39 Orioles have ever had a streak that long in the franchise’s 69 years in Baltimore, I’m going to go ahead and call that white hot. I do agree in general that it doesn’t really feel like he’s white hot, though.
He definitely said tied. And he said with Boog Powell. I don't know if that's true but that's what he said.
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He's gotten better this year as the season has progressed. I have a hard time believing he's the second best 1b in MLB. In fact, I don't believe it. At all.
Trey Mancini Traded to the Astros
in Orioles Talk
Posted
Multiple pieces coming back is a bit of a surprise to me. You might have thought they would prefer quality over quantity. But if they're pitchers, and one would presume, you can see why they would diversify.