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Pickles

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Posts posted by Pickles

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:


    Dont know why you are clamoring for a low success rate comp pick. I can see him getting a 2 year offer for 10-12 per, possibly with an option. Canha got 2/26.5 but he has better positional value than Trey as he’s a better OF

    Exactly 

    I think he's going to get something like 3/36.  I guess we'll see.

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, waroriole said:

    Right so the evaluation is whether the player offered in return is better than a 3rd round pick. What else would need to be considered?

    The value that Mancini provides to us during our playoff run.

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, waroriole said:

    If he doesn’t net the equivalent of a unknown 3rd round pick, he doesn’t have a lot of trade value. 

    I never said that either.

    I said it is a factor to be considered in the evaluation.  

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

    so you think he gets a big deal but has little trade value 🤨. I think it’s a 1% chance of a comp B pick ABs around 50% on the third I still think he brings a rated prospect and another guy or two.

    A 3rd rounder only reaches the majors 40% of the time. If you consider that it’s a sandwich pick it’s actually 38%. Rather trade 

    When did I say he has little trade value?

    Unless he gets injured, he's getting a contract in FA for a guaranteed 25 million.  You can guarantee that.

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

    Unless I’m reading it wrong we are a payee

     

     

    Ok.  Then in that case, let me revise my prediction: There's about a 90% chance that Mancini would deliver a 3rd round draft pick to us.  And about a 10% chance he'd deliver a Comp B pick.

    That should factor into the conversation.

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    36 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

    There are comp round picks based on luxury tax stuff

     


    Trey isnt getting 18 per season…. If he got a 2 year 24 million deal they’d get nothing. So it will depend on his market and interest level. It’s possible he gets a deal like Canha but not guaranteed. I’d much rather have a average level system 5-10 guy plus another player (25-30 or even outside their top 30) which I believe is fair value than hope to get an end of the third round pick.

    But, the signing doesn’t lose a pick it just comes from MLB

     

    https://wtop.com/mlb/2022/03/major-league-baseball-labor-agreement-details/

    Sounds like he'd need to sign a contract for $55 million to get us a pick, as 25+ is only for revenue sharing payees, which is assuredly not us.

    That seems unlikely.  But not impossible.  I'd peg the odds at about 10%.

    BTW, are there any updates about the draft negotiations?

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wildcard said:

    I thought the new CBA did away with draft comp.

    I think it's still in if they don't reach an agreement about the international draft by July 25th.  There were several things hinging upon that, including draft compensation.

    • Upvote 1

    Keep Mancini Thread

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    Forgive me if this has been mentioned,  I haven't seen it but I didn't read every page, but a factor to consider in his value is the possibility of draft pick compensation for Mancini if he walks in FA.

    Ryan McKenna 2022

    in Orioles Talk

    Posted

    For me, he's kind of the inverse D.J. Stewart.  He's a fringe MLer, and he's seen so much time up here because of the unusual circumstances of our franchise the last few years, and you know we'll be truly in a position to compete when he's not on the roster.

    That said, his speed and defense provide him some value, so I could see a role for him on a better team that I simply can't envision for D.J.

    Drew Rom 2022

    in Minors

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

    A little? 

    I'm pretty convinced that this development team is nearly maximizing the ability to miss bats. I'm still more interested in the profile.

    But, to your point, this development team seems to give a wider range of profiles a believable pathway to success at higher levels.

    I worry about is that high K rate is what is producing the high BB rate- meaning he's chasing Ks at the expense of efficiency and strike throwing- and so it is a bit illusory.  

    We'll see as he keeps moving up the ladder.  But that's kind of my point: That was my position three months ago and not much has changed.

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    Eduardo Rodriguez

    in MLB

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    Would your boss let you miss months to get your personal life in order?  

    This is a really unfair parallel to draw for a number of reasons.

    For one, I can do my job when I'm not in peak physical performance.  I remember going through a bad breakup in my mid 20s and having trouble eating and sleeping and thinking to myself if I was a professional athlete I wouldn't be able to perform.  It seems plausible Eduardo is having similar issues.

    My job also wouldn't guarantee me a 5 year contract worth 80 million because I'm not that valuable.

    Lastly, I know for a fact that my job would offer me significant PAID time off for bereavement and other personal issues.  And my direct bosses would almost certainly bend over backwards to help me with something like that, as I've seen them do for others. 

    • Upvote 3
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    Drew Rom 2022

    in Minors

    Posted

    Just now, LookinUp said:

    For me, and just for now, he's taken a step backwards this year. 

    Now, I could definitely be wrong. This could be SSS performance, caused by some basic ailment or developmental step he's focused on, and that disappears soon. I'm not saying that's impossible.

    But going into this year, he was fringy as a prospect in my eyes basically because of his velo. I think Tony's write-ups on him were bullish, and totally respect that given his history with Zach Davies. I just think it's very hard to make that leap into something like a John Means without your profile really maximizing its potential, and he hasn't done that yet this year.

    Well if the issue is velo, and presumably missing bats, then aren't you heartened by the 11 k/9 rate?

    Eduardo Rodriguez

    in MLB

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

    And this is the problem with “losing” teams hanging out big money contracts. How motivated are they after they sign. I know he’s not getting paid now,  but he knows he can get that money whenever he wants. I’m sure he’ll be back before the season is over so there will be no grievance by Det to void the deal. 
     

    How motivated was Cobb when he signed here?  Seems like he did everything the year before he signed his deal with us, then laid up and rested for the three years he was with us. He literally had zero motivation for three years except to heal up and stay healthy. That’s exactly what he did. 

    I think this is unfair given what we know now.  If this morphs into a Kyrie Irving situation then I'll change my tune.  But from all I've heard, this is a man who is trying to get his personal life in order and is willing to forgo salary in order to do it.  We'll see how long this drags on but he's given up the pay for the time he's lost.  He's never getting it back and he doesn't seem to be trying to.

     

    Drew Rom 2022

    in Minors

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

    It also kinda depends on how you define "making it as a ML starter".

    He has a solid chance to make it in the way that Spenser Watkins has made it. And that would be an excellent outcome for a 4th round pick!

    He has maybe a 5 percent chance of making 100 career MLB starts.

    This is all true as well.

    Drew Rom 2022

    in Minors

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

    How are you defining solid?  I’d say his chances are 5% at best.

    If you're going to put a number on it I probably think it's higher than your number but solid in this relative sense would still be a pretty low number.  I certainly don't think he has an above 50% chance of making it as a ML starter.

    I guess, my point, is my evaluation of him hasn't been altered all that much this year.  He hasn't had a breakout season, but again, he hasn't imo "pitched himself off" of being considered a prospect.

    Drew Rom 2022

    in Minors

    Posted

    1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

    Meh. I'd say barely adequate, but maybe it's because of whatever put him on the IL for a few weeks.

    The goal isn't to be a good AA starter. If that was the goal, I'd agree he's been adequate.

    He probably hasn't pitched 50% of his yearly innings yet so we'll see where his year goes from here.

    His ERA isn't shining, but it isn't terrible, and his peripherals are pretty strong.  11 k/9 rate belying much of the finesse pitcher label he's been tagged with.  HR under 1 per 9.  The major are he's really take a step back in is his control, which has never really been an issue before.  Maybe it's a matter of chasing Ks.  IDK.

    We could debate what adequate means until the cows come home, but for me, he certainly hasn't pitched himself off of any prospect lists.

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