ChosenOne21

We're not getting 2021 Rogers for Hays, Westburg and Vavra. Especially if the only issue last year was the lat strain and there's reason to believe he's 2021 Rogers going forward. You'd have to offer them more like that proposed Corbin Burnes trade package of Cowser/Westburg/Povich/Bradish to get them to bite. And I'm not sure even that's enough. Rogers has 4 years of control left to Burnes's two, though with much less of a track record

Frazier > Odor Givens > Vespi/Krehbiel Gibson > Lyles (maybe) McCann > Chirinos/Bemboom It's possible these moves could totally blow up, but I'll bet we get at least 2 more WAR out of them than we got out of the players they're replacing

I went with Mountcastle. His batted ball data suggests a pretty significant improvement in outcomes and Hays is a coin flip to spend significant time on the IL. We also have more outfielders fighting for playing time than first basemen

I guess we got pretty lucky on the injury front last year and we should see some regression there, too. Still, our position player depth is crazy good. We just need the rotation to hold up. Fingers crossed. I still don't see being 11 games worse unless pretty much everything goes wrong

We might have played over our heads a bit, but 11 games? Our pythagorean had us at 80-82. You'd pretty much have to believe everyone who improved on our team was a mirage to the point where not even full seasons of Adley, Gunnar and Grayson can make up for it. This is silly analysis.

I will say this: If Cowser can be an average defensive center-fielder, with his bat, that's a star. I'm guessing he's more of a left-fielder though

Me too. That would be a fantastic outcome. Nick Markakises don't grow on trees

Mid career, Nick Markakis was around a 3-win player. Solidly above average regular, but wasn't generally hearing his name brought up for awards. To me, you need to be more like 4-5 wins to be a "star." The kind of player who's a household name and gets lots of all-star votes, occasionally some down-ballot MVP votes. I don't think Cowser is going to be that kind of player, do you?

I think his ceiling is probably mid-career Nick Markakis. Which is certainly valuable, but I'd hardly call him a star

Bradish had a 3.28 ERA in the second half. From July on he was a pretty great pitcher. His FIP in the first half was 5.57, and in the second half it was 3.73. Funny enough, his xFIP was almost identical in the first and second half--4.02 and 4.01. I think it's incredibly likely Bradish's ERA next year is closer to 3.90 than it is to 4.90. There's a good chance he's closer to 2.90 than 4.90 Kremer, yeah, he'll probably regress a little

I was going to come in here all like, Oh you won't trade Kyle Bradish, the same Kyle Bradish who had an ERA of 4.90 And then I checked the stats and he had a 3.28 ERA in the second half. From July on he was a pretty great pitcher. His FIP in the first half was 5.57, and in the second half it was 3.73. Funny enough, his xFIP was almost identical in the first and second half--4.02 and 4.01. I see a guy who started the year off with some struggles, but who also got very unlucky. We have Bradish for six more years, and I think it's reasonable for him to have an ERA around 4 as a starter. But I also think there's upside from that, too. There were games in the second half where Bradish dazzled and was nearly unhittable. You don't trade six years of an average to above average starting pitcher lightly. As much as I like Burnes, I don't think I want Bradish and two top 100 prospects in the deal--at least without the ability to negotiate an extension for Burnes

I'd certainly cut a few other pitchers before him, but I don't think he's earned a long leash

I want to win baseball games. Getting a pitcher of Trevor Bauer's pedigree for league minimum has a really great chance to help us do that. If he sucks, cut him

FYI, Krehbiel was a replacement level reliever last year. He did start strong and collapse, so there's upside, but I'm not going to cry if we end up cutting him

At least we got cash, lol

Good analysis. It's entirely possible Frazier is better than 1 WAR. Honestly, between injury, batted ball randomness, age related decline and sheer luck, that group of players could probably be anywhere from 0 to 6 WAR and I wouldn't fall out of my chair

I think Gibson ends up slightly better pitching half his games at OPACY in front of better defense. My guess is he's worth 1-1.5 WAR Frazier is probably roughly 1 WAR if he plays most of the year I will be pretty surprised if McCann has negative WAR next year. I'm guessing he's more like 0.5 as a backup catcher You should probably also count Givens 0.8 WAR last year against either Vespi or Kriehbel's slight negative WAR. So we spent $28 million to be about 2.5 to 3.5 wins better than last year. That's roughly market rate for wins. It's not exciting, but eh, we seem improved a little

I'm sure if his hitting doesn't improve we'll barely see him, if at all, at DH and 1B. I like the move. There's definite upside here as others have stated based on career history, xwOBA, etc. And he only costs us a million and some change over league minimum for the next two years. The two years thing is pretty key as well. If Handley or whoever is looking good and McCann bounces back and starts hitting like he did in Chicago, we might get a decent prospect offer for him at the deadline. At a minimum he's better than the Severions and Chirinoses of the world and we got him at below market rate

He was worth 0.8 WAR last season. I don't hate it. Would have been 5th best for a reliever in a strong bullpen. He would have been behind Bautista, Baker, Perez and Lopez

I think full seasons from Gunnar and Adley plus adding Grayson to the rotation gives us a really good chance to be better than we were last year. Is it enough? Maybe

Elias must have liked the spin rate. Given the strength of our bullpen, I doubt we hang on to him

I'm fine with Bassitt, but I'd prefer Rodon or Senga. Can't say the rest of the names excite me much

I think someone, somewhere posted something about how the Orioles weren't considering Maverick Handley as the MLB backup catcher out of spring training, and I can't for the life of me figure out why not. Can he really hit that much worse than Bemboom and Chirinos? People were saying Handley was the best defensive catcher in the system when ADLEY was still there. That's got to count for something, right?

I think Beltran deserves to be in there. 70.1 career WAR is nothing to sneeze at. K-Rod probably not.

I love Hardy, but he's not a Hall-of-Famer