ChosenOne21

Absolute ceilings? Gibson: 4.00 Irvin: 4.00 Kremer: 3.70 Bradish: 3.40 Rodriguez (in his first year): 3.20 Well above average results? Gibson: 4.25 Irvin: 4.25 Kremer: 4.00 Bradish: 3.80 Rodriguez: 3.70 50th percentile? Gibson: 4.50 Irvin: 4.60 Kremer: 4.25 Bradish: 4.15 Rodriguez: 4.00 Well below average? Gibson: 4.90 Irvin: 5.10 Kremer: 4.50 Bradish: 4.40 Rodriguez: 4.30 Absolute disaster? Gibson: 5.40 Irvin: 5.60 Kremer: 4.95 Bradish: 4.80 Rodriguez: 4.60 Though honestly most of them could put up demoted/out of baseball numbers and it wouldn't shock me. These are FIP predictions, btw. I think Wells's ceiling is around Kremer's and his floor is around Gibson's if I'm going to add him to the mix. Voth I would say has a ceiling around Kremer (maybe a little worse) and a floor a bit worse than Irvin

I've been waiting

Isn't the most optimal batting lineup putting your best hitter number 1, second best at 2 etc. down to your worst hitter at 9? I think I heard too that if two hitters are really close you should put OBP ahead of slugging

Huh, didn't realize that about them. I'm not sure I completely buy that Gunnar's age 20 is the same as Manny's age 18 because it's not just about play time but physical maturity as well. I filled out quite a bit from age 18 to age 20 Even so, I still think the comparison favors Machado. Do you think Gunnar has a better hit tool than Machado?

I think MOO is looking at Westburg through some pretty rose-colored glasses. He'll hit at the MLB level, but if he was a top three hitter on my team I'd be wanting to improve my offense

Maybe? Machado hit .257 in A-A+ as an 18 year old. Gunnar hit .259 in rookie ball at 18. At 19, Machado hit like .264 between AA and MLB. Gunnar lost that season to COVID, but I sort of doubt he hits that well at that level if he played. Machado hit .283 in MLB as a 20-year-old, Gunnar hit .258 across A, A+ and AA at 20. Machado's career BA is .282. Gunnar has beaten that number over a full season once. Gunnar is going to hit just fine at the MLB level, but I'm betting his career BA is more like .260 compared to Machado's .280-ish. I think Gunnar could be Machado with the bat, or even a little better, but I don't think he comes close to Machado's career WAR because he's not a platinum glove 3B.

Wieters put up video game numbers in AA as a catcher. He would 100% be the top prospect in baseball right now if he/his younger clone did that last year. IIRC, Matusz was regarded as the top arm in the 2008 draft. He was pitching in the majors the year after he was drafted. His delivery had such a short stride, many evaluators thought he could add velocity and sit 94 if the O's lengthened his stride/altered his delivery. He had a plus curve, plus command, and a plus-plus changeup. The question mark was the fastball and like I said, there was reason to believe that could be improved. Sadly we know how that story went. He never gained velocity and eventually lost the feel for his changeup, but he 100% deserved the hype and would easily be top 5 in our system. I'd probably put 2009 Matusz behind only Gunnar, Rodriguez and probably Holliday Britton I'm pretty sure was undervalued by everyone except Tony. Definitely a top 10 talent in a loaded system. Arrieta, too, would be top 10, probably just outside the top 5. I doubt anyone in this conversation has a better career than Manny Machado will. He was rushed to the majors before he could truly light up prospect charts, but he's basically Gunnar with a better glove/arm and hit tool, lesser speed, a lesser batting eye, and maybe a smidgeon less power. He'd probably be battling Gunnar and Rodriguez for the top spot in the system

I'd be pretty surprised if they brought Westburg up to DH. Isn't positional flexibility his calling card? Rest looks pretty accurate, great job!

Thanks! Couldn't remember the first letter of the other WAR variant and assumed it was o + d

webbrick's way off base here, but by oWAR + dWAR Machado's career high was 8.0 in his age 22 season and he had 7.4 last year.

Glad he's mending well, but Vespi is probably the last reliever out of the pen in a good bullpen. I doubt he's integral to our success in any way, and if he's pitching a ton of innings it's likely because other relievers were hurt/ineffective

If all goes well, probably

Baseball Trade Values has this as pretty lopsided for the Orioles. They have Irvin at 15 million surplus value, Virbitsky at like 1.6 and Hernaiz at 2.7

Exactly this. The underlying numbers suggest there's a good chance he's a lot better than a 6th starter. He's not going to be an ace or anything, but if the 6th best starter on my team had a 3.96 FIP last year, I'd be ecstatic

FWIW, I'm 6'2". I was 6'2" at 14 and haven't grown taller since

Well, he is a former high round Houston draft pick, so...

He hasn't played above A ball. No way he's up by June. If he destroys minor league pitching, maybe he's up in late August/early September

I dunno. To me I think he could be a pretty solid backup catcher in the majors pretty much right now. The Orioles (and maybe the rest of the league) seem to think he's organizational filler

The message board as a whole. The Orioles seem to like Anthony Bemboom more and went out and got McCann for backup C. I'm sure McCann is better than Maverick, but the Orioles never seemed interested in playing him at the ML level

Why do I get the feeling the Orioles don't like Maverick as much as we do?

I'd make that trade

The word 2021 in my quote is key. If Rogers put up another year in 2022 like he did in 2021, would you still not trade Bradish for him? I wouldn't want to trade Bradish for my hypothetical Rogers, but if the Marlins insisted he had to be part of the package, I'd do it. We might be a little high on Bradish. Baseball Trade Values has him at 13.2 million surplus value. I'm personally a believer and think he's probably worth more like twice that, but I'm sure their approach is more robust than mine They have the Cowser (25)/Westberg (15.6)/Povich (2.4)/Bradish (13.2) package as worth 53.6 million. I have to imagine Rogers would be worth at least that if last year looked like 2021. He's worth 36 million in spite of last year, which is pulling down his projections

My point was that guys with "one plus pitch" don't pitch seasons of ace level performance with the underlying numbers backing it up. Maybe the injuries messed with his stuff last year and he only had one plus pitch in 2022 and that's why he struggled, but I'd be shocked if he doesn't have more than one plus pitch when healthy. And yeah, Burnes has the better track record by far. The tradeoff is you only get him for two years instead of four. Rogers has shown he is capable of pitching at a near Burnes level, but of course there's some risk

Oh, I wouldn't do that trade either. I'm just saying if Rogers was legitimately his 2021 season going forward, you'd have to part with at least what I said. He may not be as good as Burnes, but you get him for twice as long and probably less money. The Marlins are probably saying to the Orioles: Rogers is an incredible young pitcher who battled non-arm injuries last year that caused him to struggle. The year before he had a 2.64 ERA over 25 starts and he's cheap and under team control for a long time. I'm going to need a package that values him as a young, budding ace. The Orioles are probably saying to the Marlins: If we thought he was the pitcher he was last year, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Two years ago happened, but so did last year. He could be an ace going forward, or he could be backend of the rotation. We're going to price that risk into our offer or this deal isn't going to go anywhere. I would trade Hays, Westburg, Vavra for him in a heartbeat, though. The Marlins would be right to want more. FWIW, Baseball Trade Values says that deal is basically fair: Hays (19.5 mil) + Westburg (15.6 mil) + Vavra (2.7 mil) = 38 million surplus value, and Rogers is 36.5 million surplus value

So how did that guy pitch to a 2.64 ERA/2.52 FIP two years ago in 25 starts?