LookinUp

I predict things will fall almost exactly like we all think. 1. Yankees 2. Rays 3. Jays 4. Sox 5. O's Though I have no confidence in the Sox.

Look on the bright side, with the Nats also cancelled, at least MASN executives get to skip one more day of paying the electric bill. They'll just turn the lights on tomorrow instead.

The photo MASN uses in the background is the Nationals winning the World Series. No sign of the Orioles anywhere.

Doesn't literally everyone agree that with a lost season of minor league games, we have almost no clue how well Elias has acquired and developed guys since he's been here? The indications are good, from the pitching and winning statistics in year 1 generally, to the development of Baumann and Lowther specifically. Yet we have no clue if we've found a diamond through the international draft, or if guys like Stowers or Welk will surprise, etc. Who even knows about Kjerstad? Individual players aside, regardless of who is drafted, my sense is that the chances of success of the players inside our minor leagues are higher than they were at any time over the last 30 years. Still, while I'm all in on Elias, I admit that we have to see the product improve on the field before we give him an unequivocal thumbs up.

He was higher rated than Grayson a couple of years ago. Since then, his command was bad and Grayson really took off. Would be hitting the lottery if both get close to their ceilings.

I like that they weren't keeping Felix or Sanchez, demoted Akin and made Kremer the 5th starter. Nothing is being handed to people who aren't earning it. I think that bodes well. I'm still not sure I can be bullish. I say 61-65. I'll believe in this direction at the ML level when I see it bear fruit. The lineup has some decent to good players, but it also has some bad players and zero (as far as I can tell) great players. Very little upside, especially compared to the best teams. I'm more bullish on the pitching, not because of tremendous upside (which is in the minors), but because there's a depth of decent guys. That in theory should keep us in many games.

Somewhere on the list, but after the Davis contract.

Somebody somewhere once detailed tax implications. I don't understand them, but am under the impression that they will get a massive tax bill when PA passes that will essentially force them to sell. Like I said, I don't know the details, so I could be off by half.

My concern isn't really that. I think it's plausible* that PA continues to live into a contending period and the brothers are still preparing for sale. In that circumstance, they may not want to spend even though the team is ready to spend from a competitive standpoint. If PA passes away, the brothers don't sell and they still don't spend, then we have a real problem. * I have zero insight into PA's health, so I have no idea what his prognosis for anything is.

I want standout performances across the minor leagues at all levels. If that happens, the ML record will be immaterial to me. If not, the ML record will need to mask that failure.

Yeah, it's possible for sure. I definitely wanted it. I do fall back on the notion that the aging sick owner (future sale), covid, MASN issues are actually catastrophic to short term finances and thus this frugality is reasonable and acceptable. It's certainly not desirable in a normal situation, but the O's really are going through a very abnormal period right now, rebuild aside.

I don't disagree with any of this, but I think it's obvious that the O's will still have to supplement this rebuild with significant talent from outside of the org, whether through trades or free agency. Our farm system won't be enough by itself unless the international stuff really breaks out. Even that is years away. At some point, soon, Elias will need to make that pivot because it won't all be done with a single stroke of the pen. Building the full team that competes will take time, even with a good minor league system.

As an aside, I heard John Ourand (??) on a podcast this AM talking about MASN. He said that money for RSNs is really drying up in general, and that the Nats ultimate goal is to have control over their own TV rights. That means a separation from MASN. That was his reasoning for the massive cutbacks. He thinks the MASNs of the world are walking a tight rope between cable companies and allowing streaming and that they're in a really tough spot. Nothing earth shattering, but if the Nats are really on the path to separate from MASN, the revenues from that vehicle tank even more.

I think the point is that $1,000,000 in MLB is the equivalent of Wal Mart prices, not Tiffany's. We got Wal Mart players for Wal Mart prices. There's plenty to complain about, but the anticipated "value" received for that cost is very reasonable.

So what you're saying is that Elias exploited a market inefficiency? Paying 29th for 28th production is a win, right? I mean, if I'm ownership and I know we're not going to win, I guess this would be a standard to judge Elias on.

Handley is generally thought to be a defense first guy. Saw a couple of tweets about him. Would be nice if that bat came around.

I doubt he'd want to talk about a player under contract with another organization. That's not usually allowed. I do think that "reports" that the O's thought x/y/z could come out though. That's how this type of thing is usually reported. My guess is it's the combination of the injury, layoff and profile, with the profile being a type that for whatever reason we don't favor here. That would be a bit of a blind spot, if true, I'd think.

Can someone smarter than me tell me WTH is going on with MASN?

Judging by this year, either we love a big name guy that falls to us or maybe look for the cheapest of a group of similarly tiered guys.

If AR turns out to have the same exact career as Wieters, I will be disappointed, just like I am with Wieters' career. That doesn't mean I think Wieters sucked. I just thought he'd be better.

Wieters part 2?

Tampa will demonstrate on the low end how possible this is, or isn't, to do.

Yes! But keeping a team of studs together is kind of impossible for small market teams. Let's see how San Diego handles this spending spree they're on.

Aside from the sham that is service time and compensation for young players, I think it would be kind of insane to promote Witt now for a simple reason: I'd want him around for as much of a competitive window as I could get. SG mentioned this earlier in the thread, but the benefit of not putting our best young players on our bad team is they at least have a shot to still be around on our good teams. It's a cynical game to play, but as a GM it's almost a responsibility to do this for your organization. Hopefully when the flood gates open, there will be a legit flood of good young players coming up together.