LookinUp

End of July you were getting a mid .700's poor fielding 2b/SS. This is a guy who was traded with another piece for Jonathan Schoop. End of year you're getting a guy whose arb # is $10 million and who had one great month but was otherwise mostly still the mid .700's average at best fielding middle infielder. I seriously think the O's made out big time just by letting him go. We'd be marginally better with him, IMO, at a cost of $10 m. I don't think he'll net a great return at all at this year's deadline, but I guess we'll see.

Yeah, he's @jtrea81. Lists his real name there (I assume it is).

Villar wasn't really in the midst of a career year at the trade deadline. His OPS was in the mid-700's in July. In fact, he only had one month with an OPS above .800, and that was August when his OPS was above 1.000. In other words, he didn't have much value last July.

I'd argue he can only have value if 1) what's expected to be a losing team somehow is not and/or 2) he somehow helps the bottom line. He can be a 10 WAR player next year and be waste if they lose, TV/stadium revenue don't increase or he doesn't get a valuable return in a trade.

Doesn't make it smart though.

Which is a fair bet, but they're also betting that the return is worth ~$5 million they spend on him in the interim. I highly doubt they get $5 million in FV out of this because the team taking Villar on will be taking the other $5 million in remaining salary. It will be a net negative for the Marlins.

I still follow that guy on twitter. Very active in politics. Still comments on the O's, at least on twitter. Don't know if he still has that message board. I'm guessing he didn't really get any traffic.

I'm not blind that the O's are saving money, but it's saving money from guys who won't be under control in the future and don't project to warrant high salaries in that future. These deals are about trading expiring assets for future value. Getting something from what, if we don't act, will be nothing. I don't believe he bumbled it at all. Something for a future nothing.

I expect him here unless it's a Villar-like deal. i don't think anyone is offering much of anything for him at this point. He's still a guy who could establish value over 1/2 of a season and net a good return, in theory.

Interesting that it's about equal. My guesses are 1) that Elias prefers future value over present value and 2) Elias has confidence that he can get more from these guys than a fangraph valuation, which is essentially an average value for a spot, rather than player/org specific. Love it when someone with 15 posts makes statements like this. Is it an internet guy making a funny statement or someone in the know who thinks these guys have upside we can untap? Would love to know. I literally care zero about this. I accepted a few years of terrible in hopes of sustained success in the future. This is the price.

I think they traded Bundy for guys Elias wanted. Sounds good to me. A Bundy can be found if we need innings when we contend. I’ll just trust these are guys Elias thinks can help in the future And I’m good with that.

Not sure why people think the chances are low. If healthy, he’s a guy who could start a playoff game for a good team. Big if, I know. A couple weren’t ranked yet, and one had a great year and may have been ranked by the end.

This looks like a very nice return to me.

Reminds me of Eddie Harris in his last inning from Major League.

Yes. You're missing that Elias must see something in them to like. And maybe the O's really are cutting every dime they can. Or both.

I'm expecting (guessing) 1/2 of those arms will be young, raw, with upside.

You'll be reading about him in 7.

I told my 9 year old son the other day that the O's were going to trade Villar and Bundy. He was mad. Said "who are they going to play, high schoolers?"

I think you all are not getting his joke. Just saying.

It became clear when Surhoff came out that Elias was putting his huge stamp on this organization this off season. That resulted in big changes to the scouting department and minor league instruction. It looks like the ML team is part of that big turnover. We thought it happened last year, but this off season is apparently Elias' big reset.

So 5 minor league arms added in a couple of days. Interesting. Elias going with quantity.

Wonder if 2 would be in our top 20.

Givens: very over rated on this board, IMO. Will get too expensive pretty soon unless he builds some consistent results. If he hasn't clicked by July, I'd say yes. Bundy: has real value and more control. May now be ascending under this leadership. I'd trade him for sure because I'm not at all convinced he gets the ball every 5th day on a competitive Orioles team in a couple of years, but not for a deal like this unless he implodes. Mancini: Opposite of Villar. We have control and he's still pretty cheap. He's productive. I don't like the idea of trading him at all because I don't think he's very valued (e.g, bat w/o position value) outside of this org.

I really don't think a sign and flip plan makes sense. There's just not enough time, unless he's on a 2 year deal. If we signed him, I'd rather be open minded that he might be our SS of the mid-future (e.g., into a competitive window). It might not work out, but I think that's the way a move like this would be more likely to pay off the PR hit the team would take in the short term.

An organization that drafts well and signs quality international free agents. An organization with top 5-10 player development. People I genuinely like, who are in it for each other and for the fans. A willingness to re-sign our expensive players and attract others, through trade or FA. The winning will follow.