LookinUp

The next phase of the rebuild* would be for a few guys in the DSL, GCL or Aberdeen to emerge as top 20-30 prospects. I'm not referring to the couple of obvious guys like Henderson and Stowers. I'm expecting a few other guys to pop up without much prior discussion when the EOY OH rankings are released. I'm pretty happy with our system as it is, but that would take it to the next level of excitement. *actually, signing the guys we just drafted and then the international guys on July 2 are the next immediate phases.

I can't answer for orioles22, but I don't assume it'll "hurt" his development. I just assume there are additional developmental steps to take at AAA, particularly for a guy who can't get away with as many mistakes in the majors as the elite arms. I don't understand the rush to skip AAA at all, particularly in this rebuild. The whole point is to build all of our the guys the best we can so we have more confidence that every player who graduates to the majors is more or less ready. The old way of doing things was to say that AA success was the barometer and that AAA meant nothing. I like this way better. It just takes a while to build your entire organization up to that standard. It essentially adds another year to many players' development.

It really felt like a "we need a SS, pronto" type of pick at the time. Unfortunate.

I was reminded on 105.7 the other day that it's likely that we have a streak at some point where we lose like 11 out of 12.

Don't think you'll get a blow by blow account of the negotiations. Elias usually seems to want to wait until things are official to comment. I had heard that Gunnar was coming to town, so there's that.

I don't know how to post nice little tables, but the run differential isn't close. We're at -133. KC is only -68. So they're theoretically much more competitive on a game by game basis. The next worse run differentials to us are Detroit (-113) and then Pittsburgh (-88). Nobody's really close. https://www.espn.com/mlb/standings/_/sort/gamesbehind/dir/asc/group/overall

I was pretty adamant about not moving Grayson R. above Hall in the prospect rankings. The level does make a difference, and Hall's raw stuff is really powerful and left handed. However, the continued command issues Hall is having, combined with Grayson's overall excellent profile, is beginning to change my mind. Where they're ranked in 2019 won't matter in the long run, but right now I think Hall probably slips to #3 in our system.

I think the tweet about Sedlock's elbow issue changes this conversation a bit. Lowther is a bit of a special case. His results and spin rates tend to belie what you would expect just from his velocity numbers. I tend to doubt that Zimmerman's profile has improved enough to top Lowther's, but there are much better people to answer that question than me.

Those policies don't offset the full amount, but they do help. He's making $11 million this year. If the policy offsets 20-30% of that amount, I'm sure ownership will be happy about that.

If he has developed a chronic injury that prevents him from playing baseball at a ML level again, I imagine the O's have some kind of insurance to offset a portion of costs. Since a trade isn't at all likely, that seems like the best case scenario for the O's at this point.

I think most on this site have written this guy off. The arm talent alone makes him a potential bullpen arm, IMO. I'm not optimistic, but he has a better chance to be a BP guy than most guys throwing in the upper 80's. I looked, but couldn't find, Luke's post about who needs to be placed on the 40-man roster this year. I fear he may be one of them. If so, I'd say he's a low priority to protect at this point. [Going back and reading this thread, it wasn't clear this post was about Tate. It is. Not about Kremer, who is still a guy to be very high on.]

Hmmm. Seems like the type of players we should be targeting in a trade. Would our entire bullpen net one of them?

He got many millions of dollars at a very young age. Now he's struggling at AA. I imagine he's going through a tough time.

I want to believe this is true, and I'm sure it is for smarter teams, but it could help a GM sell a player to dumb owners and/or fanbases. Especially if said player does something really positive on that national stage.

I'm honestly not sure I can articulate a supportable reason, lol. I've always been skeptical of defensive metrics; specifically their importance in WAR. The catching data in particular didn't make sense to me (in magnitude, particularly with framing) and anecdotally I didn't understand some of the outfield metrics. The Orioles outfielders, in particular, didn't seem to mesh with my eyeball test. Hitting is very different. The statistics there are, IMO, very very strong. My theory is that defensive metrics are almost like football metrics (pro football focus data is frequently trash), being that there's just a lot of context that the metrics people don't understand. That doesn't mean they're necessarily wrong from a data perspective, by the way, but I'm not sure they can really account for the context to appropriately value a player. I'm referring to the unknown information that players do or don't have at their disposal. Some of this first step stuff in the other thread is a good example of improvements, but pitching matters, communication matters, scouting, etc. I do think the data is good at differentiating players, by the way. I'm just not sure that the spectrum of values is as immense as it can seem. Circling back to Mancini, I'm not sure where the cutoff exactly is, but I'd rather have a .900 OPS 1B/DH than an above average .775 RFer, for example, but I don't get the feeling that WAR would agree. (I tried)

His Bowie results haven't exactly supported your implication that he should be in AAA. I'm not sure how we'd expect him to do there when he hasn't done well in AA. This guy's prospect status is as precarious as anyone's. From my perspective, I need to see him hit and hit really well to justify remaining in our top 10. He's had plenty of excuses. Eventually he's either a stud hitter or he isn't (at this point).

I wouldn't be shocked if, just by virtue of roster construction, Cora picked Means. However, absent that, it will be our most well-known and performing player. BTW, I want to go on record as saying that WAR undersells bats like Mancini's by overvaluing/misvaluing defense.

Oh boy. If Austin Martin could stick at SS, or we see Gunnar over the next 12 months and see he could stick at SS, that could be a very nice left side of the infield of our future.

Former @AmericasBlazers SS Darell Hernaiz (@Darellbaseball2) tells me he will sign with the Baltimore Orioles. The 5th Round Draft Pick and Texas Tech signee is already in Baltimore and will have to undergo physicals before signing with the Orioles. #KFOX14Sports dont know how to post the tweet on my phone.

Seems fair, though I'm sure there are differences in the stuff of all three (of course).

Every level is hard and he's a guy without overwhelming stuff. Will the fastball still miss so many bats? Will his secondaries and/or location need to improve? Pitch sequencing? You don't know until you go up a level. He'll learn a lot about himself and we'll learn about him too. That's part of making sure he's actually ready for the majors, not just a kid who looks like he could probably handle it while dominating AA.

What's the rush? I'd let my non-prospects eat innings in the majors this year and let Lowther show he can perform at AAA first. My guess is he'll get a AAA chance in the next month-ish. Could get a cup of coffee in September, but likely not for a ton of innings after a long MiL season.

Might have a chance if that change-up could turn into a 60 pitch. At a 45, with a 50 fastball, and meh slider, location seems like it won't be enough.

Just curious, but what material are you reading? I'd be interested, but have no idea where to go other than this thread. Lol. If Elias does what we all hope, we'll want to become more familiar with the DSL talent over time for sure.