LookinUp

Yes. I thought it was December 2016, not January. My mistake.

I gave it less thought, but just add that it also seems like Tony like Sosa a fair amount (in the minor league forum). And Seth Johnson was a good prospect before he was injured. There's upside of a ML starter there, and he's kind of close to the majors. Certainly reasonable to have him this high.

Blake Snell. Erik Bedard. Andrew Miller. Josh Hader. The profiles, maybe outside of Hader, are not massively different in terms of command/ability to go many innings. Not saying Hall has all of that upside, but he's pretty close. Could he be a Snell-like starter? A Hader-like reliever?

I have no idea what the Yankees are thinking, but it's still hilarious to me that their best run of my lifetime came essentially as a result of their owner being suspended from baseball and them building a great farm system. Yet they haven't focused on that since. They're always paying old, slow, players. Yes, they can rake, but they rarely have a full healthy lineup and their pitching staff always has big money on the IL. I hope they never change. It's the wrong formula.

I'd rather have Rodriguez for the next 4 years than Bradish. Nothing against Bradish, but Rodriguez still has more upside. Of course, that assumes health.

Stephen Strasburg got $245,000,000 and produced -.5 bWAR. Chris Davis got $161,000,000 and produced -5.9 bWAR. I'm not sure how to do the math on this one. Since it's negative, do you multiple the WAR by the contract? If so, Davis was actually worse per WAR. But I don't know.

I couldn't agree more. If I'm Norby, and the O's, I'm working really hard on speed and agility this offseason. He's on the cusp of getting an opportunity somewhere. Time to work like he never has before. He's not THAT far from being a really legit major league player.

Holy cow. 10 different names in this poll. Good luck everyone. I think we're officially in the "it matters less where they're ranked than what's in the write-up" portion of this list.

Wow. Noted. Will follow. BTW, unless Tony did some scouting in the DR last year, this is all based on reports from the O's. Very promising.

Love that we went with this guy in last year's draft. Potentially an electric arm to work with. My concern is that they'll have to play the long game with him. The goal for 2024, IMO, should be to get him through a full professional season as a pitcher. Yes, you want development with command and stuff in general, but this is a kid who has pitched less than some 8th graders I know. I think they'll have to deliberately build that arm strength. For me, that means I'll be satisfied with 3 IP outings, maybe ranging up to 5, over a full season of minor league ball. I almost don't even care about the level. In fact, I'd probably prefer that they don't promote him quickly even if he is dominant. It's all about not stressing that arm too much, IMO, and that will happen against better competition. So I hope they're patient in 2024. Let 2025 be his helium year. Hopefully he's in Baltimore in 2026.

It’s important to remember that 1) you don’t grade like you’re a homer and 2) your ceiling’s are not defined as best possible outcome, rather they’re some probability mixed in. That’s why your ceiling’s aren’t littered with hall of famers and perennial all stars. So I’d say it’s a reasonably conservative approach.

This is the guy I’m dreaming on. Let’s hope he has a solid, healthy progression.

I knew he was inconsistent and had command issues, but I honestly thought he had better stuff. I’m not sure if Tony’s being conservative or if I’m just too much of a homer.

You caught me off guard with this weekend releases. I have some catching up to do. Tavera will be a really interesting follow this year.

Better than giving away assets.

1. New Owner 2. Gunnar 3. Basallo 4. Holliday 5. Rutschman 6. 1 of Bradish/Rodriguez 7. Mayo 8. The other pitcher from 6.

I voted Norby Povich because I really hope Tony doesn't see enough warts in Povich's profile to continue to drop him. The upside is there. As a lefty, he could be incredibly valuable to the O's. I hope he's the real deal. Plus I just don't know much about Tavera yet. I look forward to that write-up too.

I think there's two problems with his defense. 1. He's huge. Most catchers aren't, though some are. 2. He's young, so his framing, release, pitch calling and blocking are probably all somewhat raw still. But to your point, people say he's a good athlete with a cannon. Why can't he end up a very good catcher? I certainly don't rule it out, but maybe Tony can elaborate.

I don't think the concept is really that hard to understand. Right now, Holliday isn't guaranteed any MLB salary. Yes, he's made his $8 million, but there's no more guarantees related to injury or poor performance. So let's say he's good and goes through his 6 years of service time. How much is that? $50-60 million? I don't know the number, but let's assume that's the case. So the O's approach him with 9 years and $135 million guaranteed. He gets guarantees for all of those 6 years plus another $25 million/year for 3 more years regardless of injury or poor performance. Oh, and he gets to be a free agent at 28 years old. You wouldn't do that? Seems like a no brainer to me. Just have to work out the specific numbers.

I assume this question was directed toward @Tony-OH and not me (it should be, lol), but I'll give it a shot. I think 40 defense plays for a backup catcher who can really hit, but it's far from ideal. It comes down to 1) is the strike zone automated and maybe more importantly, 2) roster construction. It's certainly a real bonus if you have a booming backup catcher who can actually log innings at catcher.

70 hit tool. 80 family make-up tool. Good up the middle defense. Already pretty strong. OBP machine. Extremely high floor. Very young. I'd offer him an extension before opening day and then service time isn't an issue. Just promote him immediately and hope he grows and wins ROY, even if that's unlikely. I seriously hope the O's keep all of our top 3 and build around them. That would be 5 studs. You can fill a lineup around that.

Get ready for the extra pick in the 2026 draft because this guy is looking like the 2025 rookie of the year.

This is the bottom line. Nothing is guaranteed, but that would be a literal game changer.

Either way, these guys posted +40 points or more in the minors over guys on our ML roster now. I expect some regression for sure, but this team will be different after moving on from a lot of these guys.

We shall see. I'm definitely not accepting their first year OBPs as the final story.