LookinUp

If he follows the path of other recent draftees, he'll progress quickly until he hits a bump in the road. My guess is they'll be reworking his swing a bit, so next year will be up and down at the plate. 2025 could be his breakout. He'll also steal fewer bases as he moves up the chain. I love that he can do so at will at these levels (beats the alternative), but that will get harder as he moves up.

According to this page, Ortiz and Kjerstad now have nearly identical batting stats. Their OPS is lower than Cowser's and higher than Westburg's. Pretty good. Oh, and Ortiz looks like a gold glover. https://www.statscrew.com/minorbaseball/stats/t-nt13396/y-2023

I've never been a big Baker guy. With the exception of a stretch at the end of last year, I feel like I'm always on the edge of my seat when he's in. But you have to wonder if (hope) that the send to the minors magic that helped with Grayson and Bradish over the last two years somehow helps him harness that electric arm. We'll see.

I agree the new wall should be a big help. So should overall improved defense behind him. And he was really good for sure. At or near his ceiling. All I'm saying is I don't think he has a ton of margin for error, and coming off of a long lay off, I think it'll be hard to get back there. But I hope you're more right than me, for sure. He's not a baby anymore. Age and experience are on his side in that regard. Maybe it's like riding a bike for him. He certainly wouldn't be the first pro to come back and be really good.

I've loved him since I listened to a podcast with a former O's minor league coach who was talking about the best guys in the clubhouse (the "it" guys) and he mentioned Westburg out of nowhere. Westburg wasn't part of the conversation, he just came to mind as a leader that does it all on and off the field. Someone that everyone else in the clubhouse, even coaches, looks up to. Kind of like Adley.

Yes, because he snuck a couple extra mph of velo, pitched great with it for a while, and then had TJ surgery. In many eyes, he was a non-prospect like a year before coming on strong. That velo spike was key. He was viewed as a pitchability guy before that. I just think his pure arm talent needs to be close to maxed out to be effective. And he needs to have command. This isn't Hall or Rodriguez. Anyway, I'm tempering expectations on Means. I'd love to be proven wrong. It's definitely possible. He was really good for a stretch there. It would be wonderful if he comes back like that. I just think it's really hard to do.

I expect next to nothing out of Means. Not that I'm not hoping that he's back and helpful, but Means was basically at 95% ceiling when he was healthy, and he had to be there to be effective. That's a lot to ask after being out for 14 months. Will he have enough velo (was borderline before)? Will he have command? Will he have the great change up? He needs all of that to be better than most of our guys now. I expect/hope he will be about as good as Irvin, but not likely better than him.

Keep accumulating arms. They seem to know how to get some life out of a lot of them. Not sure what I'd do with Cano at this point. Part of me wants to send him down with Wells in the hopes that a few weeks will let him become dominant again. I just don't think that's in the cards with him though.

This was definitely a big thing and linked to injury, but I thought it was more or less debunked. Not that it wasn't associated with injury, but that there's a more specific stressor than just the inverted w. But that's just my memory. Not sure if others have better info. A quick google search popped up a bunch of 10+ year old articles. Stop. It's not happening. Stop. lol

Wow. I don't get that team.

I agree with the overall point (re: playing .700 is very hard), but think it's worth mentioning that several of the teams we're playing are likely worse than their current record. They traded guys off, and in the case of the Rays have lost two key players for different reasons. We'll see, but I like our chances of going over 100.

I suspect this is part of the reason the Padres underperform, though certainly not the only reason. They have star pitchers and hitters, but how many of those stars are great defenders, or good at manufacturing runs, moving runners over, etc.? It feels like a team that if you keep the ball in the park and grind out a few runs, you have a sold chance to win.

I love how he had Baumann’s back in the postgame news conference. Said he new he was gassed.

Yes. He was sent down when Webb (new acquisition from waivers) was added.

Trolling aside, I'd expect nothing less than using Irvin here and there to give others an extra day. Especially if it keeps Rodriguez on regular rest. The end of this season will come down to whether we complete our full pitching staff with good arms and whether the bats are performing. This should be fun to watch.

I agree with what you stated above. That said, if I was in charge of the broadcast, I'd have O's gear throughout to try to market it. I'd have cool gear in the picture and on the talent. I might even have an Orioles Team Store link visible on the screen. Just saying. I'd want people to watch and want to buy what they see.

Astros are too. I guess it's that time of year to give your arms a little more time to heal.

I think the answer is that he definitely *could* be, but likely won't. We have Wells, Means and Hall hopefully knocking on the door within about 3 weeks. Still have Baker as an option too. That said, if you told me that several of Fuji, Webb, Cano, Perez and the guys above don't work out, and/or others are injured, I think McDermott is in the mix. It's not out of the realm of possibility. What would be great is if he's so good that he forces his way onto the team above those other guys. I'm not sure he's quite there yet, but you never know. [Edit: Just saw Coloumbe is on the IL. This is the type of unfortunate thing that moves McDermott closer.]

For those wondering, here's his draft thread. Seems to have more tools than the typical 10th rounder. Nice guy to follow and root for.

That's the wager. We're all definitely rooting for him.

McDermott is a guy I'm excited about. I can't wait for more details. He was supposed to have great stuff but poor command. Now in AAA, he suddenly has tremendous results (after his first outing). It's only 4 starts, so I don't want to get ahead of myself, but it's all very promising. I feel like we could be seeing the emergence of a legit starting pitching prospect who's almost ready for the majors, and a reliever who in theory could help this year if we really needed him to.

That's fair. I tend to be rosy about the possibility of developing young players, particularly in the offseason. I also tend to give the benefit of the doubt as it relates to slumps and what a developing player might be working on behind the scenes. I do agree. There's definitely reason to be wary. I just also think there's a case here for a guy to still be ranked in the 10-15 range in this system. But maybe that's too rosy too. There's definitely a case for a bunch of people to jump above him.

And I look forward to Tony's write-up, because I'm commenting here from my basement in my underwear based on very imperfect information. Well, I'm not just in underwear, but you get the point.

To the extent Tony's power rankings are a reflection of real-time production, he should tumble a bit. To the extent Tony's offseason prospect rankings are about who you want in the org, overall profile and future probabilities, you can still argue he belongs quite high. We shouldn't over react to small samples, good or bad. It just so happens that this year Fabian has had very good and very bad SSS periods, so there have been big reactions. I still like the kid and think this offseason will give him some hope of figuring things out some more and having a solid average overall offensive profile. Add to good/plus defense and you have a good player on your hands.

I'd guess that Ortiz would be the most solid all around guy right now. Mateo would have moments. Holliday's range of outcomes given his talent/age/lack of experience against top level talent are very wide. If you told me that we brought up Holliday and he had an Andruw Jones like run, I wouldn't be shocked. I just assume that's a tall order for the young man.