LookinUp

Yeah. I think the position players are pretty straight forward, but this thread could be significantly different if you include the injured players like Johnson and the guys mentioned in that other thread (Baumler, Tavera, etc.). The other blind spot is the younger international guys. It's fair to not include either category at this point, but there's more on the farm that can be very impressive, if health and development can happen.

I really like this thread. Some very interesting guys. Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, Baumler is still the single pitcher we have that I really hope is healthy. He really has big upside. Probably 2+ years away best case, and his probabilities look pretty low to me just because of health issues, but if he can get his body right, he could be a stud.

The O's have been very active in the Rule V draft. That's what teams without talent or minor league depth should do. I actually think all teams should do it in the hopes of hitting on an upside guy.

I'd argue that's pretty likely and that we should get used to it. The O's system is getting deep. We're going to lose guys with or without injuries. Teams view it as low cost to pick someone in the Rule V draft just to see what he's got. If I were another org, I'd be poaching anyone that it seems like Elias has liked at any point in the past if they're reasonably healthy. Worst case for them is those guys stink or are still injured and get returned. Too bad. So sad.

Not sure how meaningful stats are, but that swing did look powerful to my untrained eye.

Going to be fascinating to see how much Elias trusts our home grown guys versus where he thinks we need to add from the outside. The conventional wisdom is you really can't build from within. Obviously you can to some degree, but most think a lot of churning is needed to build a champion. I have no idea how he'll proceed, but could argue that he should just spend on pitching and let the home grown bats fill all of the batting/fielding gaps.

You forget Hall?

The easiest way for our team to take a step back next year is Rutschman being hurt. Not much we could do about that, no matter what legit backup (e.g., not Contreras, who's a starter) we sign. Beyond that, it's probably the bullpen imploding. We can and should insure against that by adding pitching to this team.

First priority is to have him be one of my 5 starters coming out of spring training. If his spring says he's not ready for that, I'd rather have him learning out of a major league bullpen and later extending him than extending him immediately against AAA hitters. He's talented enough. Time to figure it out at the top level. He can do it.

1. Sign one FA pitcher not named Verlander or DeGrom. Don't pick up Lyles' option. 2. Sign Abreu 3. Sign Backup Catcher 4. I agree with Nimmo too, but think it's highly unlikely as he'll be overpaid. 5. Trade for another starting pitcher.

This makes me want Correa more, and Mountcastle/Hays less.

This is all a good explanation of why he's more valuable to other teams than the O's, which makes him a trade candidate.

The Locked On Orioles podcast made the case that Mountcastle's hard hit rate last year suggested he should have had much better stats. I think he could be used in a pretty big trade for a pitcher, and penciled in with 30+ HRs in most ball parks. That's valuable.

In a vacuum, yes, but I don't think that's the case when you consider all positions. If we have Mullins, Santander, Stowers, Hays, Westburg, Vavra, and one of Mateo/Urias it works. When you add in Cowser, Ortiz and Norby, all of whom are close, you get to a point where you get a diminishing return on any $ spent on Abreu, plus a pressure not to play all of the right guys. See Stowers in 2022 for a perfect example. I just think Abreu can happen, but it works best in the context of several moves/decisions on who to go with. I hate the idea holding up Norby and Cowser, or not batting Stowers, etc. Stack the 25 man, but play them. Don't sit them all too much because Mountcastle has been here for years, or Mateo is penciled in as SS, or Hays is the incumbent. Personally, I'd trade all of Mateo, Hays and Mountcastle. I'd be happy to sign Abreu and I'd go ahead and promote the AAA guys to start at SS/2b/LF, with Santander as DH most of the time.

Not that it's statcast, but he actually started really slow last year but picked it up between June-September. He's a really good bat. I just feel like we should sign Abreu and move on from Mountcastle rather than rostering both.

You essentially wrote in last year's lineup plus Westburg and said it's good enough to carry Mateo's bat. I agree that not having Odor will be a plus. And once Cowser comes up, you hope he's better than Hays, but unless those two rookies are really good, we either need to add a MOO bat from the outside or we need to upgrade the offensive hole at SS, IMO.

I really don't know. Love that he's a professional bat that really gets on base. Don't love the age. Don't love the defense. Don't discount the issue of Adley and Santander at DH. You're talking about a worse defensive team for 25% of our games. Of interest, his spray chart looks almost like a random placement of dots. He does ground out to the left side a fair amount, but his outfield spray chart looks almost random, and is actually slightly tilted toward the right side.

Sorry. In 2022, the MLB fly ball % was 37.2%. Not to be confused with the fast ball (FB%), which was 64.4%, lol. Heaney's an extreme fly ball pitcher, for what that's worth. Edit again: and Heaney had a HR/FB% of 20%. The ML average was 11.9%. So he gives up dingers or strikes guys out.

This is a guy who's profile has changed a ton, so I'm not sure career averages account for much. According to FG, he ditched the sinker after 2020, when he threw it 57.8% of the time! After 2021, he ditched the curveball, which he threw 22.6% of the time. He was always in the 30s-40s for fly ball %, but that jumped to over 70% last year. I was very interested to notice that most of the O's pitchers are in the 30's. Tyler Wells was the highest I could quickly find, and that was mid 40's. The ML average is 64.4%, [EDIT: THIS IS WRONG. LOOKING UP THE RIGHT STAT NOW]so maybe I stumbled on something meaningful to Elias? That definitely argues for good infield defense.

The NFL just released some data showing more leg injuries occur in the ramp up to the season (e.g., earlier). I wonder if there's any temporal patterns to MLB injuries.

Why do we want this guy? I'm not asking to be a jerk. Just wondering what role you see him in? He's basically a FB/SL guy at this point. He used to rely on the sinker but I guess he shelved that. Only 5% change ups. Throws ~93 mph FB. Not overpowering. Rarely over 100 IP. The pitch type changes coincided with him going from a GB pitcher to a FB pitcher (71.4% in 2022). That's roughly twice the FB% of most of our pitchers. I guess that's not the problem it used to be in Camden Yards, but it's very different than anyone else I can find on our staff. You have to figure that he's doing what the O's have asked others to do with a high FB and big slider. That's cool, but I'm not sure what I see here other than the K/BB ratio that says he's worth a big contract.

Chris Davis has power but can't make contact. The O's can't fix him. The O's are in continuous learning mode, so stop going after players like Chris Davis. So Chris Davis' contract was worth it.

I’d be happy if he’s earned a rotation spot before this season is over. I don’t have high expectations until 2024, personally.

I've heard him referred to as similar offensively to Mateo. I think he'll be better, but am waiting on people who know more to weigh in.

I'd wager the market is ahead of, or at least more informed, than the prospect lists. Don't forget that Ortiz started the year cold after missing a lot of last year to injury. There's no way he was going to ascend up mid-season lists. His prospect status definitely improved a lot since then. It's just a matter of how much. I still hear people talk about him like he's going to be mostly a glove first guy. I can't wait to hear what Tony thinks because I think he profiles as an average to above average offensive player at SS or 2B at this point, which makes him a clear first division starter. Hopefully I'm right.