LookinUp

Fair enough. I just think they're going into every draft trying to maximize value rather than trying to go under slot so they can get other guys later. Heck, I'm not convinced they didn't do that this draft with Holliday even though he got paid more than Jones. I'm not sure Jones didn't demand something like slot and the O's had a better deal. I obviously don't know, but the point is value, not going under slot on purpose.

Ha, but every time I go in depth about some player, someone here tells me stuff I don't know. We're smart casual. We don't wear tuxedo's. Just khakis and nice polos.

I think a lot of us "smart" casual fans are dreaming on Basallo and just waiting to see what happens. He'll probably start in Delmarva next year in what might otherwise be his senior year in high school. He's young, powerful and apparently pretty good. Can't wait.

No offense, but I don't think you know what the O's "underslot philosophy" even means. I think it's tied to player valuations, which incorporate risk, which incorporates position and available data. And I think they went underslot because they liked Kjerstad's valuation in the context of other available players, not because they just wanted to go underslot.

I feel like Povich needs 2 more ticks on the fast ball to be rated this high. I like the player, but am not sure he's quite at the level some have been acting like. I also could be wrong. Just not totally sold yet.

Oh, I love the player. I still think he can be better than Markakis, and that's not meant as a slight on Markakis. I think he'll have more defensive value and hopefully more power, with a similar high OBP plate approach. I am worried about the Ks a bit, and also about his L/R splits, so he's not a completely finished product, but he's pretty close and already better than plenty of major leaguers who never become finished products.

Assumes: Henderson, Rodriguez, Hall, Cowser, Westburg and Stowers have graduated. Holliday is #1 Means he's above... Our 1st round pick next year Mayo Norby Ortiz (who could also graduate) Fabian Povich Basallo Kjerstad Hernaiz Some other International guy like Estrada or Bencosme hitting the snot out of the ball throughout full season ball next year. Definitely not out of the realm of possibility, but a lot of that "he's above" section could easily end up the #2 guy even with Beavers having a big year. This is a fun org to have as our favorite right now. We've paid our dues though. We deserve this!

The point of my post, which was lost on some prolific posters (lol), was that there are guys with profiles that make it theoretically possible. I don't think Cowser has that type of profile because he essentially looks like an average defensive CF and doesn't have tremendous power. I love the player, but just don't think he has the profile to be a #1 overall guy despite the fact that he's probably more likely to be a top 10 guy than anyone but Henderson, Rodriguez or Holliday. Heck, he may even be more likely than Holliday, but not to be #1.

Maybe he's still getting better after that injury a couple of years ago? Crazier things have happened. Pre-injury, we were all pretty darn bullish on him. Looked like a stud for a while there. What a boon that would be for next year in particular.

I personally wouldn't send Handley unless we've already decided to protect him. I'd rather he not impress other orgs before the Rule V draft because he's really not a guy I think I want to protect, but he is a guy I want to give another year to see if he can develop the hit tool a little bit.

It's kind of incredible what Voth has done pre and post being with the O's. 2022 Nationals: 10.13 ERA over 19 games (18.2 innings). 4.94 FIP, 2.143 WHIP, 16.4 H/9, 3 K/BB 2022 Orioles: 2.72 ERA over 16 games (59.2 innings). 3.68 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 7.4 H/9, 2.68 K/BB I'm guessing the advanced stats tell much more about the story of why he's suddenly not getting hit like he used to.

I don't know enough about the details, but when I looked at that data I thought to myself "now we discuss why this data is wrong." lol. This stuff is so hard to do algorithmically, or any other way for that matter.

This just screams "and if you take out his first XX ABs in AAA" statements.

The possibilities would be: 1. Grayson Rodriguez, if he comes back on fire and has a David Price-like end to this season. 2. Jackson Holliday, if next hear he is awesome. 3. Coby Mayo, if he crushes for the first half of next year. (very low prob) 4. Joey Ortiz, if he stays hot in AAA and crushes in the first half next year. (super low prob) 5. Jud Fabian, super low probability, but is a legit CF and is on fire in a small sample size. As awesome as Cowser is, I don't think he provides enough CF defense or prodigious power. He'd have to hit like .350+ in AAA to have a chance, IMO.

Right. Mayo had the injury, so I give him a little extra leeway. Rhodes also hasn't destroyed the level. Prieto did very well for sure.

Add in Henderson at AA. It's kind of like something else is going on there to have four guys explode like that. I feel like we're over looking something.

I don't think you target a Cease or Alcantara type without knowing you're giving up a real headliner in the deal. It would be Henderson, Holliday or GRod. I'm not even sure Cowser would be enough of a headliner. I don't think you get those guys with Westburg, Mayo or Hall as a headliner. It would be interesting to see what we get in return for a package including one of Mateo/Westburg + Hall, and then like a Kjerstad.

If he skips Aberdeen, they think they have something special. I'd guess they really like him, but really doubt he starts in Bowie.

Or Mateo gets traded. They're all younger, so obviously have more control. Westburg supposed to have a ++ makeup. Henderson too. And Ortiz is so damn impressive right now. I'd consider rolling with them, or at least giving it until around the deadline next year before deciding which one to move on from.

So with Hall making any promotion a meh thing right now, what does adding Rodriguez and Tyler Wells do for the major league staff? Hopefully it really helps because our bullpen needs it right now.

Yup. You have to wonder. The O's have decisions to make with Hays, Mullins, Stowers and (less so because he can DH, IMO) Santander this offseason. Don't have to decide on them all of course, but Cowser is knocking on the door. Haskin, Kjerstad and others are likely several months or a year at least behind.

He very well might, but he won't get that opportunity this year I'd wager. Next year he might end up the O's most valuable major league outfielder though when it's all said and done.

Ahem. Wondering if we get news today.

Yeah, if you watch it there's no doubt it was a big curve ball.

That man has carried this team on his very large shoulders. He's turning into a 1-season legend. Hopefully he's much more in the end, but he's so damn easy to root for.