LookinUp

And then they moved him to SS when FA started getting closer. Gunnar will be a SS. Moving him to 3B will cost him millions of dollars. Maybe tens of millions.

What's the corresponding move? Westburg to the majors?

I think people are sleeping on the "star gets first pick" way that teams do things. Henderson will likely be the SS next year, IMO. He's the star. He's not going to be happy about going to a less valuable position, and even if he's a great guy, teams aren't going to want to do that. So Henderson will be SS, which means Mateo essentially has to go or be a UIF. Ortiz at 2B eventually and Urias/Westburg at 3B.

Not ruling out a jump in ability in 2023, but I feel like he’ll be a 2024 guy for the Os. I don’t think he has the physicality quite yet. Saying that, the analytics guys will get ahold of him this off-season, so maybe the jump happens sooner. I just feel like he needs time.

2022 AA Stats: Norby: .946 OPS Ortiz: .792 (includes cold start and hot finish, over 1.000 at AAA so far) Henderson: 1.025 Cowser: 1.037 Westburg: .817 Mayo: .700 Rutschman: .921 (in 2021, over 1.000 in 3 games in 2022) Plenty of context to consider (e.g., age, small sample sizes, injuries), but Norby's bat seems to really be legit, including his power. Makes sense given that was his reputation coming out of school. His BB% is 10.9 and his K% is 19.6%. Not great, but way within acceptable range. Also, he only pulls 38% of his pitches, so he uses the whole field. If he can stick at 2B, he has a really chance to be a nugget.

Let's hope not. They gave Harvey several years, and he's finally been decent this year. Baumler is apparently really impressive. If he's healthy, I think he's a gem. Just a huge IF at this point. A lot of our recent draftees should be there though, right? That could result in a good staff until some are promoted.

The way some are talking, Beavers isn't even the best outfielder we picked in the last draft. Guys are loving Fabian so far. Both seem like really nice prospects with high upsides. Can't wait to see them go through a full year in the system, hopefully including AA (at least).

I would not be shocked if we went for a big 1B/DH bat. Jose Abreu would be a guy. Maybe Belt, or whatever lefty best fits opposite Mountcastle.

Oh, I think there's a decent chance that someone else, perhaps Vavra with a util guy, plays 2B at the beginning of next year with both Ortiz and Westburg getting held back year. If not, I think they promote Westburg to start the season and hold Ortiz back either way unless they really think he's a ROY candidate. Or they just keep Mateo (eventual util player), hold them both back and roll with the other guys now plus some random util player to start the season.

Using AAA as the cutoff, the other two legit prospects on the precipice are Ortiz and Westburg. I think Mateo's as good as gone. Certainly Odor too.

Cowser gives the O's more options this offseason than they would otherwise have, including trading any of our top 4 ML outfielders. If they need a day 1 fill-in, Cowser can be that guy. If not, they'll probably let him cook a little bit. My guess is they trade one of the top 4, go with the other 3 (plus McKenna) on opening day, let Cowser cook and then promote him atthe expense of a util player/DH type when they have gained another year of service time.

I figure it’s a data call on him. Only if they have underlying data saying he should be protected. We can always hope for a jump, but I defer to To y on him.

I think this season has shown that we can improve the offense in about 5 spots. You could debate more or less than that, but the "stars" on this team, after Gunnar and Adley, aren't really offensive stars. They're just the guys we have.

I have no idea what Elias will do, but if feels like he'd rather move some of our major league pieces instead of the minor league pieces. Mateo, Urias and Hays would make sense to move this offseason. None are critical and I don't know what the return would be, but having a full 6 years of control of Westburg, Ortiz and Cowser (could be 7 for all 3 depending on how soon they come up). But Ortiz is looking like a plus defender and average or better hitter. That's a first division middle infielder with full ML control. I see him being on the field for us next year.

I suppose there's some folks with insight into this answer, but I'd wager that statistics wouldn't be much of a guide just because young players usually aren't as developed at defense.

I agree. Would be an interesting thread just to see other names out there.

Hasn't slowed down in AAA yet through a small sample of 6 games. It's really a tale of two seasons for Ortiz. Was terrible in April and June, ok I guess in May, but scorching with over a 1.000 OPS in July, August and so far in September.

I third this theory. I think they saw a previously decent hitter and think they can tap into that during the stretch run. I don't like it, but it's my best guess.

I guess they had to do some of it based on the situation they created, but that's not exactly a feather in their caps.

That's definitely the driving reason. He didn't want to spend many millions more than he had to on a terrible team. I just think he wasn't seeing the forest for the trees. A faster rebuild helps the bottom line too. Is it more than a 1/2 season tear down? I don't know, but it's a shame they felt compelled to let Duquette make those moves.

If there's one thing Austin Voth should teach all fans it's this... If you have talented players that aren't performing, it's the development people that need to go, not the players. Doing it all over again, I'd have hired Elias before making any trades of any kind. The whole point was Duquette/Showalter were failing at this point. So why let failing people make hugely consequential trades?

If the O's continue to lose much at all, Hall's bad performances will just be a back story to a crazy season, assuming there's not an injury. But if the O's start winning and closing the gap, they'll have to find better alternatives. Wells should be coming back. Rodriguez shouldn't be rushed. I don't know who else. Maybe Rom? Maybe even a AA arm that's sharp right now? But if Hall's not himself, the O's need to be real about it and protect both the player and the team.

Yes. People are noticing. He has a chance to be a legit prospect. Still hope his fitness improves, but the big arm and hitting improvements are interesting for sure.

Have to wonder if they’re going to change up hitting in Aberdeen too. Dimensions, lighting, coaching. Something.

I think people see a good outfielder, patient approach at the plate, good walk rates and good hit tool without prodigious power. Sure, he k's more than Nick but guys are also throwing 100 more often. Maybe it's not a 1:1 comparison, but I think it makes a lot of sense to use Markakis as a comp.