emmett16

Guess we will see how it plays out and revisit it again next year after the scouting grades are adjusted. Good problem to have. I still think Holiday has the higher ceiling and will agree to disagree

And 6' 5''. Maybe Holiday is taller?

Yes, the only league they played at the same age (technically Holiday 6 months younger). Holiday hit for more power in 30 fewer ABS. Edit: My bad. Was looking at year total and got the two confused. They had just about same amount of ABS in FCL.

I'd like to think the heights are accurate. Not a doctor, but I'd say a random photo taken (in which you cannot even see their feet) might not be the best determination? But again, I'm not a doctor.

Maybe being much taller and having a much larger frame lead to him striking out 28 times v. 12 at same level and only walking 11 times v. 25. His larger build must have given him a disadvantage. All the while the tiny guy out slugged the big guy, so I dunno. Fingers crossed Holiday makes a big jump at age 20.

Just so we are clear, you have more accurate measurements than professional outlets? Just want to make sure I know who I'm arguing with.

Holiday is 6’1” and still growing. Nice pics!

Of course he is. He's 30 months older. They almost look like twins if you look at their age 18 y/o photos.

Precisely.

Why would you say that? At a younger age in the same league Holiday out slugged him, out hit him, out walked him, struck-out less, and hit for more power.

But in this scenario, answering the question what players in the Orioles system has the highest ceiling, it is the case. I'll take my chances with Holiday, who by all accounts looks to be on a better trajectory and significantly outperformed Gunnar at a younger age. Jackson Holliday Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com Gunnar Henderson Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

I didn’t say you did. It was a question. High draft pedigree + high performances = highest ceiling. In my world at least. If those two had foundered at all, sure it could be up for debate. But they have not. They have the pedigree, they have the best tools, they have the highest ceiling IMO.

Sure. In a vacuum. But when the consensus 1-1 rips through the minors and lights up MLB looking like a top 3 at his position & the consensus 1-1 HS short stop steps up and makes the game look slow, how on earth can you put anyone else in the system above them in terms of pure ceiling. Both were unanimous top talent and have only improved. Can’t say that for the others in the system. Heck - people were not super high on Gunnar this time last year and are already worried he might not hit lefties.

But….often times you do. Seems we did.

Holiday and Adley are not high ceiling players?

Dunno, but neither of them have the ceiling of a 1-1. OPs q was what players have the highest ceiling. Not sure how anyone can argue against the two 1-1s as the players with the highest ceilings in the system.

Jackson Holiday & Adley. They both went 1-1. By definition they have the highest ceiling.

My guess is that he replaces Lyles. Not much better, not much worse.

By your definition of “odds” it should be a straight swap of production and the lose of Lyles is negligible.

I think the industry consensus is that Gibson should be better than Lyles. Remains to be seen. If Frazier is terrible AND Stowers is terrible, there are others behind them to step up and take a shot. I agree that I am assuming improvement. I have seen improvement throughout the system for the last 3 years, so I don't see any reason not to expect the same this year. The big 3 PLUS Stowers, Westburg, Ortiz, Cowser, and Hall will all get their shot. I'd say we get lucky on 1 out of 5.

I should have just written depth. The acquisitions were OK (by no means good) but the depth comes from existing players in the system. We have candidates to step in at multiple positions. I'd wager Gibson is better than Lyles. I think Lopez falls into the 'luck' and/or 'pumpkin" category and a replacement is likely within. Mancini's production can be replaced with a solid performance by Stowers and an uptick performance by Mountcastle.

Fair points. 1. I think the depth acquired helps supplement potential health problems. 2. see #1 3. Hard to quantify and could go both ways. But sure, they had some luck last year. 4. I think this is the main argument. Will our acquired depth and development of existing players be able to keep up with acquisitions of our rivals? That's why they play the games.

Here's a link with some more names. If y'all haven't had a chance to see Savacool, Shliger, or Shaw I highly recommend checking out a UMD game. They have a good squad this year. I'll be up in Minnesota at the Cambria Classic in a couple weeks and will try to post some pics & info on the top prospects playing there. Collegiate Preseason All-Americans | Perfect Game USA

So with acquisitions, development, additional depth and momentum (confidence) from the previous year, why would they not contend this year?

By your definition, do you think they contended last year in September?