emmett16
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Posts posted by emmett16
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I learned today that you have to be selected to be on the ballot. Dumb me thought everyone was eligible after their 5 years. I didn't realize how much of a tremendous honor it is to even be selected. I Imagine he will have a hard time staying on the ballot. So Congrats to JJ, one of the most fundamentally sound defenders I've ever watched play!
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1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:
And Jones leaked all over everything.
In typical Jones fashion, even though we didn't know it at the time. I miss that guy. I hope the Orioles are able to embrace him as the ambassador for the franchise that he should be.
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If we traded away Mullins, I think I'd be OK with Bellinger. Especially over Mckenna et al. Not saying that is the direction I'd like to go but I don't think I'd be too upset with that set-up if it netted us an impact SP. Maybe Camden is appealing as a one year stop to build up value for a power LH bat?
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2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:
As opposed to Eovaldi and Bassitt who have no choice in the matter?
I've labeled them as my 'realistic' wish list guys. It's still a wish list. I will be surprised if we are able to sign either of them.
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23 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:
3 Year Average ERA+
Lopez: 119
Eovaldi: 120
Bassitt: 128
Taillon: 100
Eovaldi has been a tick better than Lopez but Lopez has a better health record and adding him will not help our divisional rival by giving them an extra draft pick. Lopez would require trade capital but be much cheaper in terms of payroll allocation.
Bassitt has been the best of the bunch but is also the oldest and will require the highest salary in addition to a compensation draft pick for the Mets.
Taillon is only a marginal improvement over what Lyles gave us last year and should not even be in the discussion if we are actually trying to meaningfully improve.
I would love to add both Bassitt and Lopez, but I guess I would choose Bassitt if I can only have one since he only costs money and a compensation pick (unless he requires more than 3 years, then I'd prefer Lopez).
Thanks for posting those stats. Pretty eye opening. I thought their ERA+ would have been closer. I thought that maybe Taillon 3 year ERA+ might be lower than last year, but sure enough he was league average with a 100 last year as well. I officially change my FA 'realistic' wish list to: 1. Bassitt 2. Eovaldi and no longer interested in Taillon
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4 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:
It’s relevant. Are these guys more valuable as a pair, or should you trade. I advocate sign both (or Rodon). Need two pitchers, and move Wells/Voth to supplement the pen
Someway somehow they need to bring in 2 SPs. If they both came via FA I wouldn’t be mad. I just want the best possible talent and we have a few avenues to explore to bring in that talent. Wells & Voth both should be in the pen IMO.
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Sorry to detail thread. Back to Bassitt & Eovaldi
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2 minutes ago, RZNJ said:
This year won’t be a problem. They’ll make room for at least one. None of them have a full year of AAA but it’s not hard to envision Westburg, Ortiz, and Norby deserving a spot on the roster at some point this year. It’s possible Mayo and Hernaiz could be in the same position as those guys were this year by the end of 2023. Then you have to trade or make positional changes. The optimal trade value would, for instance, would be Westburg having a strong rookie season and then trading him to clear way for Norby. I’m not advocating that but Westburgs value would be much greater IF that were to happen than it is now.
The Curveball is Holiday who will likely move quick, be a priority play, and become a disruptor as he moves upward past the eleven (I just choked) middle infielders ahead of him right now.
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3 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:
That's my point. They don't. They gain one more year of value by improving or repeating levels. Is it wrong to keep Westburg/Norby/Ortiz at AAA?
Yes. They are assets to help your MLB team this year either from their production or their trade value.
Goal for each of those players listed is to move up at least one level. There will be another draft this year in July
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1 minute ago, MarCakes21 said:
There's sides to that though:
- you can trade guys like Ortiz/Westburg/Mayo/Hall, who are near ready but will need a package.
- you can wait a year and these borderline top 100 guys could be top 50 guys and you get more value
- you can trade from the MLB choke point which is Urias/Mateo.
I prefer the second option on the list given the state of the MLB team.
I think we are going to run out of places to play IFs.
1. Mateo
2. Urias
3. Gunnar
4. Vavra
^^^*already on MLB^^^
5. Westburg
6. Ortiz
7. Norby
^^^already in AAA^^^
8. Mayo
9. Hernaiz
10. Prieto
^^^already in AA^^^
11. Bencosme12. Young
13. Holiday
what happens when everyone moves up this year?
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8 minutes ago, Just Regular said:
This would feel to me like Kurt Warner stuff if he made it. I'll give grace to 2020 UDFA's as they could have been 6th-10th rounders in another world, but in a full draft that'd really be a find for the signing scout, OMAR's algorithm or whatever it was.
Here he is crushing the Eastern League at K-BB% on a near Grayson scale - 2nd out of 99 guys throwing 50 IP in the league last year.
Balls in play - 30 hits in 51 innings pretty stingy, reminds me of Bryan Baker AAA before we got him. 8 of the 30 home runs - feels like a lot of taters for a hit suppressor, but I assume he is just another lab experiment of burnish your stuff and throw it to the middle of the zone. Excellent AA hitters can handle it, AA filler guys get crushed.
Another reason why in 15 pitch chunks Grayson Rodriguez might be some years qualifying for an ERA title. I trust the pitch data from Arizona was a bit of a final exam for this decision, and he made it.
Great post.
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5 minutes ago, MarCakes21 said:
Why trade? Is Lopez or some other target significantly better than just signing one of those guys above?
Look at how you augment your team, you have resources available in the way of cash over the next 3 years before good guys become expensive. Use those before you dip into your tradeable assets.
I think there are ceilings with the FAs. Guys to target in trades have a potential next gear.
We have an abundance of IFs and I think the prudent thing to do is take advantage of that resource. Especially since we are dealing with confederate money in FA negotiations.
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2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:
I agree. But there are some things to Iike.
He throws a ton of strikes and has a stellar walk rate.
He misses a lot of bats and gets a good amount of Ks.
His ERA has been below 4 in 4 of the last 5 years iirc.
His statcast numbers were meh and he doesn’t throw a ton of innings but he has “I’m better than it seems” upside to him.
He had some injuries in 2022 but I think he could be intriguing. The question is, what is his market and what is his expected contract? MLBTR thought he would get a 2 year deal citing the injuries in 2022 as a reason. Fangraphs crowdsourcing had him at 2 years and Ben Clemens had him at 3/51.I think if you can get him for 2 years, you do it. If you can get him for 3/50 or so and that’s the best you can do, I think you do it.
Anything really more than that and I probably walk.
I think that’s where I’m at. 3/45 to 3/51 I’d do but nothing higher. I’d aim for 2/35. Imagine we still have to overpay a bit. 2 years for a 33yo in Waltimore could potentially net another decent contract.
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I think Bassitt is the best pitcher we could realistically hope for & sign. I’d be pleasantly surprised. I’m most interested in signing 1 of the following FAs in this order:
1. Bassitt2. Taillon
3. Eovaldi
The other SP should come via trade.
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12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:
Actually, I always think for some reason that he's a COVID year FA, but he was signed after the 2019 draft. I fixed that portion of the profile. My apologies.
Still, the fact remains that he's not your average UDFA. He's a nice scouting and development story.
Wow. That’s pretty impressive for the young man and the org. % of guys like that to make an MLB appearance has to be minuscule. I’ll be pulling for him extra hard.
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I was a little surprised he is 24. I guess the covid non-drafted FAs will be a little older than typical.
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Had a feeling when Baumler didn't go in the last round he was gonna get 'bumped'. I'm pretty fired up on Young having watched him play a couple games in Delmarva last summer. He seems like one heck of a SS. I went to watch Holiday and came away super high on Young. No dis on Holiday at all, he's stud - just I had no idea who Young was and was super impressed.
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37 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
I never would have guessed it before looking at their stats. FWIW, I don't think Eovaldi would be as wild as Ubaldo if he played here. Ubaldo was very up and down with some very good seasons and also very bad ones.
But, the potential is there for Eovaldi to allow too many baserunners especially if he starts to degrade as pitcher in his mid-30's.
That control is the only major difference. Eovaldi gives up 1.6 less walks per 9. That’s pretty significant.
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Slow time of year….some fun info on Maverick from Driveline Newsletter. FWIW this data is from last years off-season training, but gives you a glimpse into what guys are doing and are capable of achieving in off-season workouts.
Maverick Handley, Former Pac-12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year and a high draft pick, was already an extremely talented baseball player.
But after his second season of professional baseball was canceled due to COVID-19, Maverick decided he wanted to improve his game.Pushy Swing
Maverick's hands would disconnect from his body, creating a vertical bat path that only makes quality contact further in front of the plate at higher attack angles.
We focused on staying connected and flattened his bat path to allow for more productive contact deeper in the zone.Low Pitch Receiving
On the receiving side, the big focus was the low pitch. We added a quarter turn and pre-set the glove slightly lower.
This allowed him to attack upward through the ball instead of having downward reach into the ball.IMPROVEMENTS
104.2 mph (+4.7 mph)
MAX EXIT VELOCITY101.1 mph (+4.3 mph)
TOP 8TH EXIT VELOCITY89.6 mph (+0.6 mph)
AVERAGE EXIT VELOCITY83 mph (+3.8 mph)
THROWING VELOCITY-
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3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:
My reaction reading this as an Orioles fan with the potential for Eovaldi to sign with the team.
Made me do a double take as well.
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2 hours ago, byrdz said:
Sounds like Ubaldo 2.0
Made me look them up. They are much more similar than I thought they’d be:
Fip/whip/h9/hr9/bb9/k9
Ubaldo: 4.05/1.393/8.5/.9/4.1/8.3
Eovaldi: 3.83/1.322/9.4/1/2.5/7.6
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49 minutes ago, waroriole said:
I’m just saying the 3rd rounder wouldn’t stop me from making the deal. If we can get Taillon and not give up a pick, great if they think he’s the better choice to succeed. If they think Eovaldi is better than Taillon, I’m not changing my target because of a 3rd round pick.
I think that’s my feeling this year as well. I hope Mike gets his guy regardless if a pick associated or not.
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11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:
A little inside scoop, I moved a lot of these names around the last couple of days as I did more research and analysis based on everything.
So in other words, none of you are going to be wrong! lol
As always it's more about the writeups.
Is Baumler 100% healthy now and full go for 2023? I seem to remember him hitting a setback after pitching this year.
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12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:
If you have to guess which Young is in our top 20 it's probably not either. I had to Google both of them. As a 17th round pick this would seem to be high for Carter too.
He was only a 17th round pick because they thought they had no chance at signing him. More money only became available at last minute because another draftee turned down their offer. Carter is a heck of a SS and a steal in the 17th round. Keep an eye on him.
Noah Denoyer 2022
in Minors
Posted
It really seems like the Orioles sent out a memo at the beginning of the year that read: "Dear Pitcher, if you would like to move through the system and experience success, throw the ball down the middle and do no walk anyone. Sincerely, Mangement"
Watching the Orioles this year and the Elias philosophy of throw the dang thing down the middle and don't walk anyone kind of makes me want to do the same thing with my 11u squad next season. No inside outside, no change ups, just pump fastballs down the middle and let the kids catch the ball while avoiding walks.