CaptainRedbeard

The cutoff date for the extra year of control is near the end of April. The cut off date for “Super Two” extra year of arbitration is sometime in the middle of the year, around June/July (it depends on the players in any given year, so it can move). They are likely to want to wait for Super Two if they can, but Cowser could certainly force the issue. He hasn’t had that many AAA at bats yet so that will (hopefully) motivate them more than the Super Two status.

Baumann had a 12 K/9 in AAA last year but has not been able to miss bats at all against MLB hitters. He has no path to being a SP this year and is in his last option year so it’s definitely time to see if he can can translate the swing and miss as a short reliever. He has big fastball velocity but clearly that’s not enough on its own, so hopefully the cutter/curve can elevate the whole profile.

With LF in OPACY being so big and Mullins already on the roster, I’m not too fussed about Cowser being able to play CF. It would help his trade value definitely, but I don’t think the Orioles are inclined to shop him given a plus defensive LF still has a ton of value with the ground to cover at home. We can worry about CF once Mullins is out of town / needs to move to LF - and by that time we may have Fabian/Beavers/Haskin/others in the mix. The biggest question in my mind for Cowser is his hit tool / K rate…and after starting off spring training racking up a ton of K’s, I believe he’s now at a 25% rate. His eye/swing decisions look fantastic and I’m convinced the power is legit now, so it’s just his contact ability that will determine his ceiling offensively. Being able to hit lefties better would obviously be great, but if he gets his K rate in check against them his BB rate could carry him to something palatable there to be a starter given the plus defense. If he ends up more of a platoon guy, he would still be very valuable against righties.

I think they are going to hold onto Politi. His cutter and curve look very nice pitches. It’s a question of whether his fastball will play against major league hitters, and I think he’s shown enough to give him a shot. Wells and Hall are going to be stretched out as starters. Wells will already be stretched out by Opening Day, Hall won’t. I think Wells is going to be sent down to stay stretched out. It will also buy back a year of his service time if he stays down a few weeks, so that works against him and I think they take that opportunity. If Hall is continuing to get stretched out they may as well do it at the MLB level in the pen. Once he’s ready to start, either a spot in the rotation will have opened up or he’ll be sent to Norfolk (or they do a 6-man rotation). He is eligible for a comp pick if he finishes in the ROY voting if he is on the Opening Day roster and I don’t think they will want to close that door without seeing him pitch in a multi-inning role at the MLB level. They intentionally left him in the minors long enough last year for the exact long enough amount of time to keep him rookie eligible this year. If he’s dominating in 3+ inning appearances then a breakout season is not out of the question.

Fangraphs has an article explaining the predictive power of these stats: https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/stuff-location-and-pitching-primer/ The reason to use a model like this is simple: it’s predictively powerful. Before the season begins, Pitching+ out-predicts any current projection system for relievers when judged by the size of the Root Mean Square Error, as seen below by the bottom blue line. Once the season gets going (curved line), it takes about 250 pitches before in-season Pitching+ beats preseason projections for relievers. Here the horizontal lines represent pre-season ERA projections for the different projection systems as well as the previous year’s actual ERA, FIP, and xFIP. A linear transformation was performed to bring the previous year’s Pitching+ to an ERA scale. For the line plot, the RMSE is measured between the in-season Pitching+ up to that pitch number and the end-of-year ERA. So for all pitchers who threw at least 50 pitches, the RMSE in the first point is between the transformed Pitching+ at the 50th pitch and the end-of-year ERA. Starters are a little more complicated, as they have more robust on-field result samples and deeper arsenals, but the story is similar. Before the season, starting pitcher Pitching+ has a lower RMSE when compared to on-field results (ERA) than most projection systems. In season, Pitching+ begins to beat pre-season projections by around the 400th pitch, or four or five starts in. Pitching+ also predicts rest-of-season results better than K-BB% in smaller samples: If Pitching+ is so powerful, why split the model into Stuff+ and Location+? That has to do with how quickly each becomes reliable — Stuff+ becomes reliable 80 pitches into the season and is extremely powerful relative to any other single stat in the tiniest of samples, while Location+ takes something more like 400 pitches to reach a similar level of stability (a high barrier, Chronbach’s Alpha ~0.9) — but also with how sticky each component is year to year. Below, you can see how sticky Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+ are year to year, and how Stuff+ drives most of the season-to-season stickiness of the overall model: On any given pitch, the location is hugely important, more than the stuff. But stuff is stickier season to season and start to start, so it’s a safer bet; as noted here, the free agent market has also been paying more for stuff than location recently. The longer a pitcher is in the big leagues, the more their actual results matter when weighed against their Pitching+ numbers. But being able to judge a pitchers’ ability to throw good shapes and velocities to the right locations should also have separate value to those trying to evaluate hurlers because of how quickly those shapes, velocities, and locations become meaningful.

Felix was #1 in Stuff+ last year, by a huge margin. 165 and second place was 147.

That HR is of course not out in OPACY but I was shocked to see how far it went in Sarasota. That’s some serious oppo power.

I’d like to see Hall piggyback until he’s built up to start, and then if all 5 starters are healthy he is either sent to AAA to start or we move to a 6-man rotation. Hall is still ROY comp pick eligible and while his odds are certainly less than Gunnar and Grayson’s, a breakout season (or even just a very good one in the 80+ percentile of outcomes for him) would put him firmly in ROY conversation. If by the time Hall is fully stretched out he doesn’t look like he’s capable of that type of performance and doesn’t force his way into the rotation, then you send him down to continue his development as a SP. It makes sense for Hall to piggyback Grayson more than any other SP just because they are likely to want to baby him more and bring him along slower to start the year than the other SP, but in no way should it affect whatever development plan they have for Grayson’s innings this year. I’m guessing this wouldn’t last beyond 3 starts.

Fastball was down 2.2mph compared to last year per baseball savant, averaging 92.2 mph. Gotta be something wrong physically, and if not there’s no way he makes the Opening Day roster.

9 fastballs averaging 97.9 mph per baseball savant. Max 98.9 mph. Grayson is all the way back.

Actually you’re right that Diaz doesn’t have an opt-out, since he was outrighted and not signing a contract this offseason. So I think that definitely hurts his chances of making the team. The 40 man spot shouldn’t matter though, as we’ll be able to open up two spots by moving Means and Seth Johnson to the 60-day IL. In his radio appearance during one of the spring training games, Elias confirmed that Mazara has an opt out by virtue of his playing time and alluded to others having opt outs as well. I assume that is Cordero, since he signed a split MLB/minors contract - he can probably choose to take the minors assignment or opt out. I do think Vavra has the potential for 10-15 homer pop - he’s not some super small guy and he has a nice swing plane for it, it’s not an overly contact oriented swing typical of many guys that don’t hit for much power. I think he could certainly have Mullins-type pull power if he was hunting for that more. Based on his MLB approach last year I think the issue is he tries to take every fastball to left field and hasn’t shown the ability to turn on the inside/inside-middle heaters. You’re right that he hit for more power in the minors but he hasn’t done that at all in his 300ish PAs at AAA/MLB. He has ISOs of .127 and .079 in AAA/MLB last year and Steamer/ZIPS only project him to about .110 this year. That’s not going to get it done with what it looks like his defensive limitations are going to be. He’s probably still the best choice for the 26th man anyway, but I think the upside is still there for more power against higher level pitched with more ABs and he’s not going to get those as the 26th man on the MLB bench. I’d rather see him get a half season of regular AAA plate appearances to start the year with a focus on tapping into that power more.

Based on the Orioles’ insistence to play Odor last year and signing Frazier this offseason, it’s clear they don’t view Vavra as a viable defender at 2B other than as a deep reserve, or perhaps a 4th infielder at best. As an OF, it doesn’t seem like he has enough athleticism or arm to be anything other than average in LF. He’d probably also be fine at 1B. However, he doesn’t look like anything more than a 100-ish wRC+ bat with how little power he’s shown, even with the excellent BB profile and decent K rates. I unfortunately think his only paths to becoming more than a fringy 26th man Norfolk shuttle guy are to either (1) vastly improve his 2B/3B defense (in the eyes of the Orioles at least), which only really helps him if he finds his way to another organization given the depth we have there, or to (2) tap into more power and become more of a 12-15 homer guy, along with perhaps solidifying that he can be more than passable in LF/1B. I don’t particularly like his odds at either route but I think (2) probably is his best shot. Either way, Vavra needs to be playing regularly to improve and he’s not needed at the MLB level with this roster construction to start the year (barring injury). He should be ticketed for Norfolk. I think the Orioles’ decision for the last bench spot will be between Diaz, Cordero, Mazara and O’Hearn, and will be heavily influenced not only by how they look this spring but by who they want to retain in the organization. I think O’Hearn is probably a lock for AAA since he will want to retain his MLB salary and we’ll know we can stash him that way, but the others probably have opt outs. They’ll keep whichever of the other three they want to hang on most as the 26th man, and I think Diaz has the inside track right now, followed by Cordero, and lastly Mazara, in large part based on that being descending order of how well they can play 1B (Diaz exceptionally, Cordero still learning, and Mazara not at all).

I think having that sinker over the course of a full season will make a massive difference for him. Last year, he was better against lefties by FIP/xFIP by a fair margin just because he had a massively better GB rate (54.8% to 41%) leading to fewer HRs. K rates were about the same and BB rate was actually worse against lefties, but righties were getting the ball in the air with authority far too often due to his 4 seamer shape. With an effective sinker to go with his wicked slider, he’s going to be death to righties this year. I’m still skeptical he can be effective against lefties with his change up so hard (almost 90 mph) and used so infrequently, but I think his 4 seamer with its natural cut is more effective against them so it should all add together well. If he stays healthy all year, and especially if the little velo bump he showed yesterday sticks, he’s an excellent breakout candidate for a big season.

Appreciate the report! The 8 “sinkers” registered by Statcast that were actually 4-seamers averaged 93.9 mph and 2356 spin. That spin rate would have been 127 out of 560 pitchers that threw 4-seamers last year. That’s pretty exciting - if he can maintain that over a full start then it has the makings of a potentially plus pitch. A 5-pitch mix is impressive as well. Even if the curve ends up more show-me, leaning on the 4 seamer and slider for lefties and the cutter and change for righties is an excellent arsenal.

This is very interesting - it’s clear there are two groupings of distinct hard offerings that Statcast was having trouble identifying. I’m guessing the top right group was all about 94 mph and actually a 4 seamer (despite a number being classified sinkers) and that middle group classified as 4 seamers (and one slider) was actually sinkers or cutters and about 90 mph. Povich was consistently throwing either 94/95 or 89/90 with nothing in between (excluding off speed). Despite the Statcast classifications, it makes more sense if the 94/95 was his 4 seam and the 90/89 was a sinker/cutter. Which if that’s the case and he can actually hit 94 consistently with the 4 seamer, plus another hard offering with something off and more movement AND the quality slider/curve/change, that’s a pretty electric pitch mix.

I was keeping a close eye on the velo readings for Povich in Gamecast. Very interestingly, he threw a ton of fastballs at 94 (and one or two 95) and a ton at 89 or 90, about an even number of each. There were almost none in between, I don’t think a single one at 92 and maybe only one or two at 91 or 93. It was unusual and made me wonder whether the 94+ are 4 seamers and the 89-90 are sinkers or cutters, or he’s just dialing it up and back and can’t sustain 94 every time. Either way, I’d really love to see him pitch with video to get a better sense for what’s going on! If he can reliably hit 94 consistently he’s got a lot of potential.

+2 wins from Gibson, Irvin and McCann, +0 wins from Frazier

I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Wells is in the bullpen to start the season. I think there’s a good chance they will want him stretched out as SP depth, and he showed decent potential as a SP last year so they probably don’t want to close the door on that just yet. Sending him down to AAA for a few weeks will also buy back a year of control. I think it’s more likely that we see Politi make the team out of spring training, although if Politi doesn’t look worth keeping that could open the door for Wells/Vespi/Khrebiel.

His Baseball Savant page is pretty much all blue (and some of them bottom 10%) outside of an excellent BB%. Seems like a very generic pitch to contact back end rotation / swing man lefty, but that has some value in our stadium given his great BB rates and durability. He doesn’t have big LH/RH splits so that helps as a SP. 4 years of control is also very nice. Hopefully the Orioles can up the velocity or change the pitch mix for more Ks. He does throw a lot of fastballs (around 60%), particularly for a guy who only averages 91, so maybe there’s some gains to make there. Hernaiz is a good prospect, performed well at his age last year. But the odds that he’d ever make an impact on this team are very low. Have to give something to get something I suppose. Irvin is something, just not a whole lot of something.

ZIPS is fortunately much higher on the pitching - much better projections for Kremer, Wells and the bullpen, for which Steamer is expecting a ton of regression. But yeah, even when that’s added in, the pitching will still be a glaring weakness in the projections.

The depth charts using only Steamer right now are here: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=2 The average WAR of all 30 teams is 40.42, so I would think the implied replacement level is 40.56 wins. The Orioles are about 4.5 wins below average, so that would be 76.5 wins with an average schedule - but they have a tougher than average schedule even with the more balanced schedule, so they would project a bit below that. Maybe the ZIPS replacement level is much different than the Steamer replacement level and ZIPS does actually project the Orioles for much higher - maybe I’m missing something, I’m not sure exactly what is going on here. All I know is that Fangraphs does their projected standings based on their depth charts once the depth charts are half Steamer and half ZIPS (and then accounting for strength of schedule). The Steamer half of that will project them to be a fair bit below .500. Hard to tell now what the end result will be once they load in ZIPS as well, but I’m not expecting to ultimately be projected above .500.

Fangraphs’ depth charts with just the Steamer projections have the Orioles at 35.9 fWAR, #21 overall. ZIPS may like the Orioles more (they certainly like Kremer more) but I doubt they will move up more than a few places when ZIPS is added in. For reference, the Brewers are #15 at 41.9 fWAR. Barring some really unexpected moves before the start of the season, Fangraphs won’t be projecting the Orioles to even be .500, let alone 83-87 wins. More likely they will project in the 74-79 range.

The Orioles seem determined to have a lefty backup 1B, which means that one of Stowers/Cowser/McCann will need to be in the lineup against LHP, even when everyone is healthy. I hope it will not be McCann at DH/1B and we instead give those reps to Stowers/Cowser to see if they can handle MLB lefties (particularly Stowers, since his MiL track record against LHP is good), but I’m not optimistic.

Wow, that is a massive difference on Kremer! Steamer has him projected for 0.8 fWAR. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a player where the projections between the two systems differed so significantly. I’m sure that will be talked about in the article. ZIPS is also higher on Wells than Steamer, which has him projected similarly to Kremer. Everybody else seems pretty close to the Steamer projections.