btdart20

Completely shocked to see lack of votes for those not wanting to trade Lopez.

The gap between the playoff locks is growing as we near the trade deadline: NYY - best W% and added Montas, Benintendi, and Effross addressing the bulk of their team needs. Hou - second best W%, Mancini fills their 1B/DH needs, trade from SP depth for RP Will Smith, and a better hitting catcher (Vazquez). Min - division leader, added Mahle TOR-type SP, and Lopez to deepen their bullpen a closer, and I suspect they aren't done. Toronto is in the wild card driver's seat in cruise control... Tor - best wildcard W%, some BP depth, could see them getting a 2B or more BP help. On the bubble for the other two wildcard spots: Tampa - got Siri OF starter (buried in Houston) and some smaller deals. I'm not convinced they'll make any bigger moves. Some offensive injuries, but the pitchers are getting healthy. Seattle - Recent injuries sting... Landed Castillo as a TOR. Cleveland - who knows? Texas - Expensive losers. Chicago - no big moves (Diekman), still looking for BP help... Baltimore can still make the wild card cut. BP will take a little hit trading Lopez, but still a strength of the team. Urias has hit his stride. There's a chance Odor is benched for Vavra (or even Urias if Henderson is called up). Biggest question mark (and even that is pretty small) is the dip in production/adjustment period for whoever replaces Mancini.

I was glad they drafted Young and was hoping we would overslot him. More on reputation of being a potential 1st rounder heading into the season vs. 2022 results. I wonder how the game log/SSS toward the end of his year played out (i.e. did he get healthy and produce)? I could have sworn I read/heard that Vanderbilt's hitting philosophy is more about hitting the other way/small-ball type. But I can't seem to find it. Am I chasing ghosts? Drafting Young was plan B so we didn't toss wasted money around if/when plan A hit a snag. Young was a hedge that needed to be exercised. Regarding the contract size: Meh. Use it or lose it in the draft. (Not sure if it's related or not, but if so and this means we can't sign McClean but also getting a 3rd round comp next year, then that's not such a bad outcome either. I'll second what @Just Regularmentioned about the 2023 COVID class being a bit deeper with former HS talent who went to college after 2020 graduations.) On the whole, I'm pretty excited they were able to sign Young. Bringing in his ceiling this late in the draft is a win. Moving into the org: We've done a great job pairing talented MIFers together the last few years. I'm hoping the synergies and trend is contagious with this draft class too! <<Raises a toast>> Here's to Holliday and Young being Gunnar and Westburg 2.0!

Absolutely! Wisdom in the cousel of many, but someone has to be the decision maker. While the Dodgers and Astros have the market to run a higher payroll, their org depth drives the success. When Elias came in, we didn't have much in the system and had little MLB/market talent to trade to tool up with either. We're not solid in IF and OF depth. And probably have some RP talent that I'm missing. One top tier SP and one top tier TBD role-unknown P. Beyond that, we still have some work to do on the depth/internal competition that drives the cream to the top.

The lefty part is huge in OPACY and games in NY too. The LF wall protects against righty hitters, lefty pitchers is the way to win in OPACY.

For context, Lopez was a waiver claim. Literally cost us nothing but minimum payroll the last few years. A little sweat equity and he's an All-Star closer and flipped to address the biggest gap in the org: systemic pitching depth. As much as we/you may question the return, this is a guy with a checkered past performance-wise. Povich, Nunez and Rojas are the key pieces. Cano is org fodder with a chance to absorb some MLB innings ROS. Povich is a legit SP prospect (3rd round and projectability) as others have said. Rojas and Nunez have high K rates and relatively low BB rates. Rojas' age and performance to date make him especially interesting. Stats aside for all of them, I'm sure there are metrics (spin rate, velo, movement, pitch profiles...) that support why Elias agreed to these guys. Maybe we can unlock something that the Twins couldn't... Why this type of deal? Trading a position of depth for a position of need. MLB RP depth at high value for SPs to fill the ranks and back fill the RP role too. It shows a conscience effort to retool the minors with SP talent. Why now? Get while the gettin' is good and lock in the profits. Perhaps not peak, but pitchers are timebombs. And relievers (especially with dicey track records) are volatile investments. Another angle is the PR/team impact angle... Rip off the band-aid once. Sure, we could hold him and make a decision later, but typically the trade deadline inflates RP value. Plus, next year we're hopefully in a much stronger position. I like the comparison to the Bundy trade, except this was for a closer. A little quality, some timeline risk, and a few chances at the wheel to hit in the black IMO. Maybe we could have gotten more holding until next or until later today. Maybe not. The main idea is that we locked in the profits of a waiver claim.

Agree with the idea that not every position has to be studs. But we do need more studs in more roster spots. The O’s don’t have the Astros rotation. And it’s not in the pipeline either. The Astros don’t face the NYY and TOR offense as much. If we don’t have the pitching, then we have to have better position players. We do have some bats on the cusp. (FWIW I dream of the day where we’re legit contenders AND have the SP depth to trade away. Keep stacking talent…)

They aren’t a contender this year with or without Mancini or Diaz. We can still squeak into a weak last wildcard spot with Diaz (and whoever else we have after the deadline).

I’m glad we have had a surprise season so far. But let’s not confuse making a weak playoff with being any type of contender. I want a contender!

Is 5/21/22 the watershed moment? Or is 8/1/22 the true watershed where decisions look different than the past few years?

Any bump he's had from pitching well in AL East has worn off through the injury stigma right? Throw out everything prior to 2019 (2018 being his CY year). 2019 - 23 starts (i.e. he did miss time for injury but still started 2/3 of the year). Posted a 103 ERA+. 2020 - 11 starts (for context Lyles had 12 starts ). 127 ERA+ 2021 - 27 starts (missed what 7 starts assuming 34 is average). Posted a 92 ERA+ 2022 - 12 starts (missed a few early this season). Posting an 86 ERA+. To get SSS - Since the start of July he's posted a 2.81 ERA with a 3.28 FIP. And that includes his worst outing of the year in Colorado's light air. In other words, he's still got the TOR hope. If we're hoping to make any type of run in the playoffs, we have to match up with whomever in the playoffs game for game. We need a hope of a TOR. No one on the current active staff has the hope of upside that Snell does. Plus, that hope carries into next year. It's the type of risk I'm game for at this point. The financial flexibility and minor league depth still allows for a narrowed focus of spending in the off season (namely SP). To summarize: Sure, Snell is flawed. But it's not like we're trading away a crop of top prospects either (like getting Castillo or Montas). Not trading anyone is fine. But (IMHO) it's just angling toward not making a playoff push. In the playoffs, we would need a TOR. Snell is not currently considered a TOR arm. But July shows he still has it in there. Maybe it lowers the chance of making the playoffs (adding injury and rookie risk), but if Snell continues his July success, then he's a TOR arm that can match zeroes with the studs in the playoffs.

I'd be down for trading Santander for someone better than Snell too. But I just don't see that happening. Lyles FIP is 4.41 this year (career 4.69). 88 ERA+ in 2022 and 82 career. Snell's FIP is 3.56 this year (3.56 career too). 86 ERA+ in 2022 and a 117 ERA+ career. I suspect Snell will 'regress' to his career average. Lyles' regression goes the other way. Snell's health is a concern. But is it more concerning than any other SP with quality movement to get key outs?

Nope. Snell would be better than any of our current healthy starters.

Sounds like the Rays are listening to offers for their BP arms and Choi. It’s like they question their playoff chances and want to gear up for deeper runs later. Same for Boston. The wildcard bar this year feels pretty low. I think we can make the playoffs even if we trade away some ML talent and backfill with in-house options.

My son was asking about this yesterday. I have to think there is some type of organization orientation for first year players that lasts 2-3 weeks. And a good chunk probably is a mental focus of expectations (I forget the lady’s name but they have a mental coach). She probably has developed some type of generic curriculum and has worked with coaches/scouts to develop tailored approaches for each player (especially the top guys). And the first few weeks are about getting a more detailed baseline of data of tweaking the coaching approach. I bet another week or two.

Perez looks really good. Really aggressive for how young he is, but not going to argue it.

Grayson, Stowers, Ortiz. Probably a pitcher: Feliz or Denoyer at this point.

The Gunnar write up sounds like he’s been reading Tony’s stuff. Were there any SPs ahead of Grayson? Unexpected big jump for DL. Not having Cowser is a mistake. Probably couldn’t have too many from one market and penalize another market… TBD on Holliday.

Same thoughts here. But I don’t think the barrier to entry will be that high this year. I would be building toward something more meaningful.

I think Seattle just made the key deal for them. They just need to stay healthy. Same deal for Toronto. I think our biggest competition will be Tampa and Chicago. Tampa is banged up. But Chicago is getting Eloy back in the mix. They are so inconsistent though… I don’t think Cleveland or Boston have the horses.

If I’m making cuts, Mateo would be the first out the door of those 3. But I’m fine with trading any one of those 3 now. My horizon is longer than 2022. There’s more to evaluating a talent than how and when they swing the bat. So the absolutes don’t fit as neatly in the front office.

So, Mateo, Hays, and Mountcastle must stay?

He’s 27 and is just now starting full time. His minor league OBP is .325. There’s not much more upside when his ML OBP is .270. I do think he has some trade value because of the speed and defense. But it’s fairly niche because most contenders have a SS already. And a trade is unlikely because he means more to the O’s this season than others. I’d love to be wrong but I do think this is peak value all things considered. Elias and Hyde could very well keep him at SS with Gunnar and Westburg at 3B and 2B respectively. And Urias is the utility. Just feels odd that the stud has to work around the not-quite-established “vet”. But I would shop Mateo in the off season with Urias playing 3B. Also, Adley’s promotion is the beginning of the new guard players with the plate discipline that aligns with the hitting instruction up and down the org now. There are a few current guys who, while solid in their own way, are out of step with the future state of the team’s hitting philosophy. Santander started buying in this year a bit and it’s done him well from an OBP perspective. Mateo’s approach has stayed the same. It’s a mismatch with coaching.

If everyone else hits, sure. There are many ways to build a team. But limited offense from the premier athletic position in the sport is starting behind the curve. We have legit bats in the minors, so a) I’m not married to Mateo at SS and b) he’s got value in his defense. There’s a role for him in the ML. Either as a utility player on a competitive team or an SS on another team. I do think he plays out the season and probably is here next year as well as a utility after Gunnar is promoted. I’m just not sure how much value he’s building though. This feels like peak Mateo.

Yeah he’s quicker than I had thought too. Plus Hh’s got good instincts. I saw a game in Aberdeen where he was on 1st and read a pitch in the dirt. He got a good break and made it to 2nd easily. Same game he extended what I thought would be a single in the gap to a double on a ball that didn’t get to the wall.