btdart20

Yeah he’s quicker than I had thought too. Plus Hh’s got good instincts. I saw a game in Aberdeen where he was on 1st and read a pitch in the dirt. He got a good break and made it to 2nd easily. Same game he extended what I thought would be a single in the gap to a double on a ball that didn’t get to the wall.

Maybe. But if one other team sees the ceiling you do, we should trade him in a heartbeat. Especially since we have the horses in the minors to backfill SS. His 30%+ K% combined with <5% BB% really lowers the floor. Nearly every offensive metric is below average with the exception of speed/SB. He’s been great defensively.

I’m glad he’s been hitting #2 recently. The line up is much stronger with him toward the top. OBP, OPS, pitch count…. He’s a machine who doesn’t have many bad ABs.

What ever helps us be perennial WS threats. At this point, keep stacking talent. I want to be able to trade away ML or ML-ready talent to fill ML holes while competing for the playoffs like LAD and HOU in a couple of years. Seattle just solidified their rotation by trading away 2 top 50 prospects.

Context is key. In the shadows of Adley and the wake of the SS Gunnar is a tough place to be. Even Grayson greatness early is somewhat obscured this season by his injury and those two freaks. Mayo's story isn't bad. He's still a young man with big expectations and some growth needs. Maybe he's not headlining a futures game, but he was promoted to AA at the age of 20. Not too shabby... Let him get healthy and some AA ABs to finish out the season to adjust. I doubt he'll post a .800+ OPS from here on out in AA like he did in A+. But he's over 4 years younger than the league average. Next year will be good to see the stats/adjustments he's made show (hopefully offensively and defensively).

I don’t want him. I want to be the dealer not the addict.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/astros-willing-to-listen-to-offers-on-controllable-starting-pitching.html This is the end game of stacking talent. .600+ winning % plus literally selling controllable arms for more talent. We’re not there yet…

My armchair scouting persona is a little surprised Hodo was that close to the bonus slot. His profile reads as someone we could underslot by much more than $15k. (Same for Bright and Ardoin to lesser degrees IMO.) An extra $200-400k would sweeten the pot for those overslot guys later.

Agree that they wanted to have extra guys to throw money at, so they aren't left with extra slot money on the books or if someone fails a medical. So, may as well have someone good queued up as plan B. But why do you think they lean toward Showalter of the 3 after the 10th pick? I would try to get him signed before any of the other 2 guys. To speculate some more: Maybe Young was a true medical plan B (i.e. they had a ton of leftover money) so they never expected to sign him otherwise? Maybe having Walter is team leverage in the negotiations with Young?

+1 for the literature reference. -1 for the spelling error.

Redefining regression!

Gotcha. Mets looking to add 3 players explains how trading for Mancini and Contreras don't conflict.

All of the above? Lock in the day 1 'birds in the hand' was probably the first goal (have to since they seemed to have gone BPA on day 1). Then work the room to see how the jenga puzzle fits without falling. From the hype, I would love to see Young sign. Don't know much about him but it sounds like he's a potential 1st round talent who had an off year. It would be nice to see if they can drop a mil+ in his lap and see what he does.

I'll pile on here too... He's a good 4th OF. He's not a starting OF for a competitive team. And that's in isolation. That doesn't mean Stowers is necessarily a starting OF on a competitive team, it just means we know McKenna isn't. This is a position of organizational depth. We can't block talent (and maximize player value) at COF. We are raising the bar with our positional battles and expectations across the board.

But Mancini can't play C. They can use an offensive catcher. And Contreras is top shelf offensively and can DH if they really want one of those other scrubs catching/hitting.

I think the complete opposite and that's exactly why they're looking at Contreras. McCann is currently on the IL and they've been trotting out Tomas Nido (a 28 y/o "vet" with 622 PA and a .208 BA over his 6 year career). Plus Contreras won't block Alvarez next year.

I can appreciate what they are trying to do with these "Net Present Value" type valuations, but it really leaves out the real world. I have to think Atlanta values Max Fried much greater than Baltimore values Mullins. A lefty SP for the defending WS champs who happens to have their rotations best ERA has to be more important than an "above average" CF (per the write up). Even with one less year of arbitration on Fried's horizon. Factor in org building, competitive cycles, even market size as appropriate too... It's a good start at a buyers/sellers shopping list though.

A lot of time the CB is a chase/keep-them-honest-setup pitch. So, the closer the MPH is to their other pitches (especially a slider), then it's tougher to react to as a hitter. That said, spin/movement factors in as well. A guy like our own Austin Voth has a league average CB speed, but he also has really good spin/movement. He did seem to appreciate many of our draftees CB regardless of the MPH though.

I was encouraged with the analyst's take that the O's hitting approach/pitch selectivity would likely be a good fit for both though. But more encouraged for Fabian. Hopefully these guys start reporting soon...

Nice write up. His analysis on Fabian gives me more hope. But the Wagner blurb raises more questions.

Our competitiveness this year is marginal and surprising. Our BP has increased in value a ton. Many in the BP have added trade value of team control. Next year we’ll likely be in a more competitive position. Why would we trade him next year if we’re more competitive heading into the 2023 deadline?

Yeah that was after a really good year and in the off season too. Not a great comp honestly but fun to dream about.

Marlins traded Ozuna a few years ago to the Cards. Ozuna was 26, had less than a 5 fWAR, and had 2 years of team control left. So maybe more a Santander type comp than Mancini. Marlins got Alcantara, Zach Gallen, and a couple of other guys. Every now and then a zinger comes along to stoke the imagination. And with the 2022 Oriole magic sprinkling liberally, maybe the trade deadline is no exception!

Just like everyone else, Mounty has to continue to hit. At some point the depth will force tough decisions at the cream rises. No issues on the horizon for Ryan yet though. I can see Kjerstad or Mayo at 1B if they have health concerns. No reason to move them now but good options to keep in the back pocket. Mayo does have a gun, so I can see them giving him a shot at in LF if he can’t stick at 3B. He’s young but I have my concerns with his defense. Time will tell…

Just getting caught up with the draft result after being in Shenandoah last week… Elias and crew basically went BPA with a signability nod. If Jones was 1.1 I bet we’re still haggling. And a few under slot types in the back half of the top 10 with a few under slots in the back 10. Then went position player heavy early, a few starters, and heavy with bullpen types. Saw some chatter about likely not being able to sign them all, which could be a lesson learned from last year and “having” to toss money Willems way to spend their full allowance. Before the draft many mocks had no pitchers going in the top 10 picks. 3 we’re drafted in the top 10! Turns out teams still value pitching. Even when they carry more risk. It will be interesting to see how the Rangers strategy plays out. Maybe the most ‘dramatic’ under/overslot this year. At least toward the top of the board. Two potential difference maker SP to go with Lieter. Atlanta took 4 straight SPs in the top 100. San Diego, San Fran, and ChiSox are similar. Marlins went Berry then nearly a dozen straight pitchers in a row! I bet they are trading some SP talent for hitters. I get the feeling we’ll be trade partners with these guys over the next few years. Red Sox are interesting too. They didn’t have many picks but took some big swings at high risk/reward talent IF they can sign them. Brewers drafted the switch pitcher Jurrangelo Cjintje with pick 552. I hope he does well.