btdart20

Sounds like the Red Sox and Fabian lost their gambles. I bet Fabian won't get a $3m deal this year. And maybe not $1.86m 40 slot money either. I imagine the Red Sox were somewhere between those two numbers though. Fabian may break even money-wise except he gets his money a year later of devalued currency and inflated costs.

And that still doesn't' mean another team won't draft said player. And is that kid really going to walk away from $2m for a shot at more a few years later (if they are healthy and perform)?

The Mets will be interesting to watch. ($14m plus chatter about blowing by the 5% draft overage to cost them future drafts) picks 11, 14, 52, 75 If we go significantly under-slot then a few other "Draft Busters" that will be interesting to watch (if we're angling for that fifth $2m draftee): Rockies - ($13.6m pool) picks 10, 31, 38, 50 Reds - ($10.8m) picks 18, 32, 55, 73 D-backs - ($15.1m) picks 2, 34, 43 Red Sox - ($8m) - 24, 42, 79 Blue Jays - ($8.3m) - 23, 60, 77, 78 The Rays picks 65, 70, and 71 will be interesting too. But they "only" have $8m draft budget.

Agreed. In another thread I mentioned that it would essentially buy us a fifth $2m draft signing (assuming pick 33 is slot) if we maxed everything else. The odds of that guy being available at pick 81 is slim. But having trouble finding it since we’ve started another thread on a similar topic.

Came across this page yesterday. #1 player taken doesn't always mean 'best rated' at the time of the draft. Especially before the slotting system. It's from 2011. But it's likely a good proxy for the under/over-slot (portfolio) strategy. Signing Bonuses: No. 1 Overall Picks Year-by-Year | Perfect Game USA I'd probably give the edge to the #1 overall, but the largest bonus column is pretty strong too. No clue what the career WAR numbers total or the % of players who made it to the MLB.

I came across this article this morning: Examining Orioles General Manager Mike Elias’ draft history - AZ Snake Pit Here's the reason the author believes that Elias will go with the under/over-slot approach: Elias’ history with top five picks in the draft would suggest if there isn’t a clear-cut player they have in mind (Rutschmann, Tucker, Whitley), that Baltimore will elect to take the portfolio approach and go for savings with the first overall selection. I have no idea how the Orioles see the top of the draft board, what they’ll sign for, and if they think there are a larger pool of candidates to go over-slot with the 33rd and 42nd picks.

My $0.02: Go BPA early and often and just throw the money around at the table with the first 4-5 picks especially. It wouldn't take much for us to drafting/signing 4 $2+m guys (i.e. 1st round types). The #33 or #42 picks might be the only 'cost-sensitive' decision for me (probably based on rankings within tiers), so I could have enough dry powder for the #67 pick to get them to in the $2m ballpark (assuming the 5% overage is spent). We could probably get the #81 pick into the $1.25-1.5m range as well. That's a lot of money for an 18-20 y/o to walk away gambling a higher slot and delaying pay day. Only way to get a fifth draftee/the #81 pick over $2m is to short the 1.1 pick fairly significantly. Which likely means, not Jones. This is where the question about how deep the draft pool is. Maybe it's a false hope and I'm buying beach-front property in AZ, but my reading of the tea leaves thinks that the pool of talent is fairly deep. Especially HS arms (which yes, carry more risk of failure/injury). Throw in a few guys publicly positioning for over-slot money (like Dutkanych) which would mean some teams would mean teams with tighter draft pools may avoid him. Seems like a pretty big quant-crunch. To stretch the pool to have 6 $2m signees (i.e. to go the 'Pirates' path), we'd need to find $3.73m somewhere (to get pick 42, 67, 81, and 107 up to $2m). After the $850k allowed overage, that puts the gap at $2.88m. What are the odds that any of the top few guys (Johnson?) sign for $6m?

As of today, 4 of the 6 playoff teams are from the AL East too. We'll have to earn it in division. And I doubt the calvary is coming in the form of a trade.

Similar to the path Gunnar was on had 2020 not been missed. Dare we hope to see lightening strike twice!?

I like seeing that much red on the Savant page! Looks like the pitch mix changes has helped us FB be more effective. A change from 60% to 65% is an 8+% improvement. 8+ more strikes per 100 pitches. 2ish per IP. In a game were failure 7 out of 10 at bats is HOF material that type of “marginal” improvement/variance on the most pivotal piece of the game (throwing strikes) moves the needle on a lot of downstream stats.

Baseball Reference also shows a .913 fielding percentage in those games. His arm is an absolute cannon too. I'm not saying he has to move or that he will move or that he has no hope at improving (like you said, barely 100 pro games into his career). I hope he can figure it out and improve and am sure he'll get the opportunity to do so. Just like his hitting is a work in progress too. But where is that line drawn? I like to think management has a line in the sand and a plan B just in case the ideal path doesn't play out. What does that assessment and process look like? Looking at the Bowie OF (probably the last variable to consider but the easiest in my mind), does he get his feet wet now? Mountcastle is just an example. I could have easily said the Cardinals did a good job recognizing Stan Musial had a better future as a hitter than as a pitcher. Or Cal Ripken as a 3B being moved to SS despite having more games as a 3B in the minors. But I don't want to see Mayo's bat take off and then not have the chops to play the position. That's not setting him or the team up for success.

@Just RegularI agree with that take on Gunnar/Westburg. Both have their pluses/minuses individually and what they would add organizationally. I can't see the value-add at the ML level in-season other than a utility guy. And the fact that we don't have any "untouchable" players from 4-6, it really makes sense to continue preparing for any need in Baltimore. I would be shocked to see 6 of 6 any time soon (barring injury, trade, promotion...).

I would be fine with moving Mullins down, in theory. However, we're playing well as it is. So why rock the boat? Hays, Mancini, Mounty, Santander are clearly having a better offensive season than Mullins. Rutschman is on the upswing as well. So, there's a case Mullins should be our #6 hitter. No way Odor, Mateo, and Nevin (or Urias) should be getting more ABs per game than Mullins.

Agreed on the Norby move. There's not much pushing him out of Aberdeen and moving into less ABs in Bowie. Seems odd. AA numbers for Prieto and Ortiz are pretty similar though. Last 100 ABs favors Prieto, especially with AVG (probably supported by the higher Babip). K/BB rates need to improve for both. But neither are doing much in the power department. Prieto being a year younger and getting his first look at AA pitching clearly favors him. Looks like Ortiz has been the primary SS since Gunnar/Westburg's promotion. And Prieto has been mostly 3B. I hate to ask the question, but (given the Bowie OF) is this the chance for Mayo to get some OF action while allowing Prieto/Norby/Ortiz to get their ABs too? The IF at least has some prospecty labels, but the OF only has Cowser and (to a lesser degree) Haskins. I suspect they want Mayo's feet/mind in the dirt as long as possible. But Mayo's sporting a .929 fielding% (.960 MLB league average in 2021). Yes, there are other defensive measures, but this is a quick/dirty (and those range metrics are tougher for 3B). A 3B butcher like Devers had a .950 in 2021. But I'd like to think they some deciding factors to determine success/failure at 3B. And that they have discussed the possibility and game plan for plan B. Based on some spring training Q/A, Mayo has said the right things about playing where he's told. I don't want to see another "Mountcastle is an SS" pie-in-the-sky thinking again.

The guys who are playing SS are the most gifted defensively. They are among the best athletes on the field regarding body control, fundamentals of fielding/throwing, as well as mentally. The biggest differences IMO: * the angle toward 1B (and other bases). So, the approach to fielding a grounder would be slightly different in order to exit the fielding position to make the most in-line throw. Just like with pitching, machine-like repetition of motion increases accuracy. Changing the angles changes a baseline variable. * the mental clock of fielding/throwing the 1B is different. Reps at the different position would shift the clock (like knowing whether you have time to set your feet to make a more accurate throw). Those may seem like small things to the cream of the crop at the sport, but (just like economics) the difference is in the margins. In 2021 in the MLB, the difference fielding-wise is even tighter than batting average (where 5 hits per 100 ABs is the difference between a .300 and .250 hitter). To oversimplify, the difference between gold glove level defense at SS and league average SS defense is about 1 more error in 100 chances (.980ish to .970ish). That number changes, but the point is the marginal difference is pretty slim. (For all the positives that Mateo has provided on defense this year, it's important to keep this marginal difference in view.) The average team/SS in 2021 saw 622ish chances on the year. 3.84 chances per game. Every 26 games, they got to 100 chances. 1 additional error every 26 games (1 a month?) is the marginal difference from a gold glover to league average. I appreciate the flexibility during the development stage. Historically, once a guy settles into a position then it takes something to move him off of that position (diminished skill, a better player is signed, they sign with another team, etc.). Cal and A-Rod are notable SS examples. But there aren't many starters at the ML level that are constantly moved around on a weekly basis. I assume most teams see value in the consistent reps at one position, in general. It'll be interesting to see what happens what happens when these guys are in Baltimore (especially if a Prieto is with them too). Will they blaze an org trail? Why? Just to increase the trade value of an SS? How do we measure success in that philosophy? How do they choose who plays where in Baltimore any given game? In the minors it was likely based on games/innings. But in Baltimore, I would think it would be more strategic like playing behind GB pitchers vs. FB pitchers? Righty/lefty heavy line-ups? Analytics of where the pitcher/hitters are most likely to hit the ball on a given match-up? Unless there's something along those lines, I struggle to see the value.

I do think C gets an unnatural (maybe incomparable) bump. So I can see with either Gunnar or AR. But I’m still most excited for Grayson! That’s 2/9th of position players and 1/5 of the rotation that have a legit +WAR future!

I hope/think this is the case this year. Elias has been talking up the HS kids. I wonder if it’s beyond the first pick…. Sounds like the HS class is pretty deep.

It’s evidence that more money can in fact convince a potential “1st rounder” to forego college and go pro. Basically buying another first rounder in one draft. The money had to shift from other picks though (making them under-slot). SG mentioned we could go BPA and still get an under slot guy a while back. This is what he was talking about.

Instead he was an overslot pick/signee. $1.7m slot bs $2.3m signing bonus.

Watching that Westburg shot made me think about how it plays at OPACY. Any way to overlay his HRs to the OPACY dimensions to get an expected HR total?

Cowser still leads the team in PA. No health-related news out there either. There are quite a few other OF prospects in Aberdeen too (Williams, Cook, Rhodes, Tavarez, Bellony - Yusniel Diaz is there now too). Being off isn't an issue. Cowser (260), Mayo (253), Cook (215), Bowens (205), Norby (194), Burns (193)... Cowser also have the most games in CF (38). Williams (15), Cook (9)

Chuck wagon! The 32+% K% is his Achilles heel. Plate discipline and/or contact and some speed assisted Babip 'regression' to league average, and he'd be solid offensively. 36.8% Chase % (vs. 28.3% MLB avg and 32.5% for Mateo in 2021) and 39.6% 1st strike swinging (vs. 29.3% MLB avg in 2022 and vs. 27.3% for Mateo in 2021). @Just Regularcomment above regarding the skills/arb stack (if we assume recent norms of financial resources) is interesting. I have to think Elias has the foresight to have an anticipated arb contract range at which they would/would not bring him back. If they're not planning on bringing (anticipating a higher arb number), then they should shop him too. But I think he's back to start the 2023 season as SS and then moves to UT as the Gunnar/Westburg are promoted. Odor has served his purpose buying a little time. He's provided some fun moments and has a large clubhouse influence. But he is what he is offensively... A pop-up/low Babip hitter with K% issues (low OBP). He'll hit a 15-18 HR (and the occasional key HR), but usually a non-factor offensively otherwise. But he's been given way too much credit defensively, IMO. -6 OAA, -4 RAA, -1. UZR, -0.2 dWAR. Odor's June triple-slash = .137/.262/.353. Pretty much what he's done on the year (.199/.257/.388). At least Mateo brings speed and defense to the table. None of the next 2B candidates are the type of guy any org would consider manipulating the timeclock over (assuming Westburg still needs some AAA ABs).

First in my heart but not stats: Gregg Olson and whoever else they cobbled together between '89-93. The second/third guys were a mixed bag from Williamson, Frohwirth, Flanagan, Mills, Poole... But Olson and his curve was must-watch TV in those days.

MLB All-Star Game Voting: Here Are the Leading Vote-Getters for the Midsummer Classic – NBC Chicago All-Star voting totals show how inept the MLB is at marketing its stars. The fact that Ohtani is a generational talent who's doing things we haven't seen in nearly 100 years (or ever) has 555k votes is a joke. I get it's part of the AS voting structure having him only listed as a DH (and Alvarez is having a great year). But Ohtani also has less votes than DH William Contreras in the NL.

That's where I am too. Ohtani broke a long-standing two-way barrier; I'm rooting for this guy to be an MLB contributor.