btdart20

Favorite - I’m on board with Beavers. The write ups on Showalter, Young, and Walters are intriguing. But I’m going with McLean as my favorite. Least - The Wagner/Fabian combo. I bet they had a bunch of pitchers tiered below Wagner and thought one would slide. Sounds like they got sniped on Whisenhut. But would have liked to see Cannon (drafted 101) instead of Jud. Glad they got McLean though. Probably just going BPA with whoever was still on their board.

Or it’s great for business to drive clicks!

I'm on the Jones bandwagon, but Fangraphs has a pretty easy to sort site for this and prior drafts with their future value grades. (You can sort by the various tools as well.) Their assessment agrees with your questioning Jones as a clearcut 1.1. Jones has a 45+ FV. Johnson is 50. 2021 had 7 graded at 50. Including Cowser. 2020 had 7 graded at 50 or higher. Only Tork was a 55. The rest were 50, including Kjerstad. 2019 has 7 graded at 50 or higher. Only Rutschman was a 60. Witt, Vaughn, Abrams, Greene, Lodolo were 50. 2022 Draft Prospects | THE BOARD | FanGraphs

Every trade/personnel decision should be viewed through the lens of stacking talent. No way small/mid-market teams can maintain competitiveness without having talent always rising up. True that not all MiLBer will succeed, but if we're stacking talent then the MiLB should wash out the failures earlier. And true that we'll need to trade some unproven talent from time to time, but it should be framed within the overarching goal of maximizing. The types of trades you're putting on the board aren't completely about 'buying' (trading away unproven talent) in the old school since though. You're filtering your targets a bit already with the "stacking talent" mindset (younger, team control, quality, still maintaining budget flexibility). For the record: I'm on the Santander/Snell side of the fence. I don't like the Hall centerpiece for Lopez. But would be more on board with a Hall package for Montas (assuming him holding off his next start until after the AS break is nothing). Montas' stats and statcast charts look really good. No real concerns for regression or significant outliers (other than his 2020 stats are odd but it was a weird year for a lot of players). However, I have to imagine the A's would want more prospect value in return than the Marlins. But like @Jammer7says, it doesn't have to be either/or as long as we're targeting quality long-term talent. If Elias pulls the trigger on Snell and/or another SP, I could see Lyles being traded away too. 2022 is lining up much better than expected (and with some competitor injuries helping our cause too). But 2023 looks to be the start of a legit run.

From a stats perspective: Lopez is who he is. Above average K% and BB%. But both are worse than last year. His K/9 dropped from 10.1 to 8.7. His H/9 has improved, but likely tied to the Babip dropping from .302 last year to .256 this year. His GB rates are better than average (likely a result of the good movement on the sinker/changeup). He has historically limited HH% and that's consistent this year too. Nothing out of line with his HR allowed rates (and similar expected HR at OPACY this year too). His 4-seamer is 92 (a tick down from last year) with well below average movement (and that's been consistent over his career). Only change in his pitch mix is that he's throwing the changeup more and the curveball less. ERA is 2.86, xERA is 3.81, SIERA is 3.67, FIP is 3.64. He'll likely see some ERA regression as his Babip normalizes toward .290-.300 range. But we're still looking at a solid 3.00-3.50 ERA type guy. From a trade perspective, it'll definitely take more to consummate this deal than most others... But Lopez is a proven MLB started who's under team control through 2025 and fits the type of SP we should be buying. But (personally) I don't like trading DL Hall. (Maybe my Hope-o-Meter needs adjusting, but I'm pretty high on Hall long-term.) I would trade Mullins (and BP arm/lesser prospects) for Lopez.

A HS pitcher at 1.30 by Elias? Unpossible! He hates pitchers.

Top line stats fluctuate. Did you know that Bumgardner's ERA is a full run less this year (3.65) compared to last year (4.67) even though his WHIP (1.347) is higher (1 more H/9 and .5 BB9). While striking out 1 K9 less as well. More baserunners with more balls in play usually doesn't play out well. Yet his ERA amazingly went down. That's just counting stats. Moving to statcast type number, his hard hit % is 44.8% (38.7% is MLB average). The one good metric that supports his improvement is that he's inducing more GB (40.7% this year vs. 33.3% last year). MadBum's FB sits at 91 MPH average. And his 'stuff' is below MLB average nearly across the board (lots of blue on the movement chart). FIP sits at 4.60. xERA is 4.82. Moving to Snell... As you noted, similar WHIP (1.381) is more in-line for his history than MadBum's. Yet his ERA went up nearly half a run (4.20 to 4.66 this year so far). His GB% is 43.1 (pretty close to MLB average). GB/FB ratio for Snell is better (0.76) compared to MadBum (0.70). HH% is 37.9%. Many more red numbers on his 'stuff' chart as well. 95 MPH FB with a 75th percentile horizontal movement on his CB. FIP is 3.57 and xERA is 3.41. This is a buy low for Snell. Less hard hits, more Ks (more specifically outs without the ball in play), better movement on pitches, 3 years younger... Motivated seller who wouldn't demand top prospects in return.

Socio-commentary aside: Sports is pretty close to a meritocracy. No 2B at 1.1 is for a reason. Top MIF athletes would be playing SS at a lower level and be shifted as the competition gets stiffer. I don’t see Elias being the type of guys who will break a trend for no reason. If Johnson is the pick, it’s because they project his bat well.

Be the change. If you’re tired of it, then be a pacesetter not a pack dog.

Elias has said as much before the win streak. Trading Mancini is the only true 'sell' (maybe read as 'locking in long-term value'). I think everyone else of value is under team control. But I'm also not convinced it becomes a weakness if only 1-2 guys are traded. Especially if Hall is an option. Because quality pitching has an odd memory and an immense capacity for hope! If a guy is throwing good for a few games, then it's hard to give up the hot hand (a lot like trading away talent after a winning streak and in the wildcard hunt). Especially when the guy has a CY award on his resume (see Bumgardner). Reds were wanting Volpe or Peraza from the Yankees. Not sure about Montas.

Excited: Jones Happy: Holliday, Collier Content: Lee, Green Cautiously optimistic: Johnson Concerned/disappointed: Anyone else.

Same article reports a few OF injuries… Maybe that nudges the trade market some.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/east-notes-castillo-jays-orioles-marte-kiermaier-nationals.html One national reporter says the O’s will be trading away ML talent. Also from Nightengale, the Orioles‘ surprisingly strong play seemingly hasn’t changed the club’s long-term plans, as Baltimore is “expected to unload” several notable veterans.

I’d be fine throwing any of our ML IF too to patch their holes. Even Vavra.

I like the deal. But setting that aside, do the Padres have other suitors with more talents on the table?

Up to now, Elias has focused on long term org building. He’s had to make a few decisions each year to scab in gaps but signing Lyles was the start of something different. But now Elias has to balance the long term goal of being a perennial contender making deep runs in the playoffs vs. short term goals of being more competitive this year. It’s possible to do both but the tension between those goals is real. Elias’ job become harder only if he has conflicting goals. It sounds like he doesn’t given he’s spoken about being a “buyer” and “seller”. He’s building an org for perennial competition (at least as far as he’s concerned). Comparing our starting line up with our competitors I’m not convinced we have the horses for 2022. If buying (to us) is promoting prospects and holding our guys, then (on paper) we’re not keeping up with the pace of improvement the teams ahead of us will make. Let’s revel in the unexpected joys of the now but keep our eye on the WS prize in decisions! The plan is seeing fruit!

Here’s a pretty good compilation of options/competition on the trade market. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/top-50-trade-mlb-trade-candidates.html

There are spots for the pitchers but Vavra, Stowers, Westburg, and Gunnar can only make an impact if something happens to Odor, Santander, Mateo, Urias, and/or Mancini. So is trading the current starters away conceding? Or making room the talent to rise?

This is the way.

Twins could use a bat too. So, a package there is possible. MLBTR/Nightengale referenced the Mets are hoping to keep prospects (yes, it's a negotiation tool but still...) and are more interested in taking on payroll contracts. That's not really a fit for us if it's true. But I do think Mancini is a good fit for NYM.

But not like a Lamet or Quintana. Lamet is 29 and other than a few glimmers of hope, he's been a no show. Quintana is a rental. Elias should be shopping for someone younger with more team control.

Yelich comes to mind. That’s fine. But if he’s ambushing first pitch FB, he needs to be promoted to where pitchers have other offerings. He needs a challenge to grow as a hitter.

This isn’t the first I’ve heard of HS pitching depth. Glad to hear it again! It would be great to land one or two of these guys as an overslot in rd 2-3. Hopefully they really talk up their college commits allowing them to fall and our bonus money is convincing. If nothing else, it pushes down college arms with a higher floor.

Considering 11 teams have a worse record than the O's do as of today (i.e. 19th out of 30 record-wise). I suppose the gripe is still intact to some degree! We were only slighted 2 spots! Throw in the strength of schedule for kicks and I'm sure we could make an argument for another couple of spots.

Another rabbit out of the hat! This series against the Rangers was nothing short of miraculous!