btdart20

Bunch of scuttlebutt, but I'll continue playing along... If I'm the O's, and IF the O's put in a larger offer, and IF Correa signs for less to play in Houston, then I would share that publicly after the fact. Sure it's a little black-eye for the team, but it's not like we don't have that already. But it clearly shows Correa's desire to compete is aligned with fans interest. And not the main issues that MLBPA or owners in the recent CBA...

I think the main piece of the plan is controlling what we can control. Almost all of the minor league interviews posted focused on that to a great degree. The players focus on what they can control. Not what the team decisions are, not what the resulting stats are. The same with Elias. He doesn’t have complete control over the budget. So, he’s focused on “stacking bodies” and developing talent. Stacking bodies will always be a thing just like it is in any industry (lower costs/increase production). · Amateur, international, and rule 5 drafts. We’re getting toward the end of the pit of despair. But we started behind the curve internationally. · Developing talent is adding the software, hardware, facilities, techniques, scouting data, etc. to the tool belt of managers and players. They aren’t just looking at the hard data to help with getting the most velocity or ideal LA. But the soft data like mental approach to injury recovery (and maybe even draft selection). Sounds like we started behind the curve on this too. Stacking bodies is the gas that drives the engine. Elias is delivering on this piece. It’s not just us on the O’s chat board in our own echo chambers saying it either… But this will always be a focus. Not focusing on drafting/developing is why we had to go through this crappy rebuild the last few years. That’s the plan. Now, at some point we’ll need other ways to fill in the gaps and improvement. When? How? · Free agent spending is a high-cost way of doing business because these players have a history. Even large market teams get gun shy and realize they can’t win it all unless they get production through lower cost ways (i.e. the Yanks aren’t bidding on Correa because they are hoping on Volpe). Obviously this is a fan favorite and gets a ton of headlines because you see immediate results. But there’s also the aging and motivation factors at play too. o Elias has been targeting bottom tier talent. § I would have liked to see them do a bit more ‘reclamation’ (sign and trade) type signings. But maybe this is where the home field and AL East opponents come into play (not “whining”, just looking for an underlying reason) and rebounding players would weigh those ‘risks’ with pitching in SF (pitcher park and no DH in the past). Those they've tried haven't worked out well. § Whether not going for mid/top tier talent part of the plan or part of the budget now/going forward isn’t known. A case can be made either way at this point. But not before now. We haven’t seen evidence of it. But it could just be that Elias is still reading the talent tea leaves. o At some point, mid/top FA signings should at least be a consideration. As others have said, we should have the revenue space to warrant an increase in payroll. But we can’t expect them to sign a Albert Pujols type deal every year. (Correa would be a great way to fill in a gap and give some flexibility to use the body count in other ways.) · Trading requires a body count of marketable talent. The O’s haven’t had that in a while. And when they did, they failed to capitalize on it thinking they were competitive. Teams like the M’s and Rays have done this well over the years. But they started with the body count of talent to trade away. And they timed the market (buy low/sell high). o The M’s current roster has 8 of the 9 bats were acquired through a trade since 2018. The ninth (Haniger) was from a trade in 2016. They are just now at a spot where they are adding a lot to payroll (Eugenio through trade, Ray via FA). o Tampa’s current roster has 6 of 9 from a trade. 3 were draft/international. 3 SPs were from a trade, 1 drafted, and 1 FA (Kluber). Bullpen has only 3 not from a trade. o Mullins and Means are our most marketable talent. And both have question marks from a market perspective. And it’s hard to lose your best hitter/pitcher from a team/fan perspective. Mancini and Santander are the most tradeable from an O’s perspective. But again, stacking bodies drives the machine. · Assuming there is a ‘next phase’ to building a winner (i.e. more spending, FA signings), what would be the things Elias would be looking for? Or maybe put another way, what type of data would Elias pitch to Angelos to increase payroll?

He was in the mix for the MiLB lead in 2020 if I recall.

Yup... When you're in the thick of a pennant race...

A 20-30% bump in IP would put Grayson in the 120-130 range. I doubt he'll go much higher than that across all levels in 2022.

I really enjoyed the last 3: AR, Grayson, and Stowers. All focused on the team aspects, mental aspects, controlling what they can control, not focused on the stats and numbers but knowing their game and adjusting where they can. Saying all the right things.

M’s will be tough this year.

And they don’t play their prospects when they have the chance.

Details…

With Tatis injured and if the Padres open the season with CJ Abrams at SS, that adds another top bat to the ROY calculus. At some point you just disregard the ROY competition game theory and just roll out your guys. Hard for a C to put up the stats with AB limits to compete ROY votes.

Agreed!

Freeman is better than Olson, sure. But the Braves get 2 years of team control vs. years of payroll. And Olson isn't that much of a step down from Freeman. At least considering their ages.

@Tony-OH You make a good case for Lopez. The bump in velo and movement is critical for relief success. I do think Sulser gets the nod first and it goes from there. Very small sample in 2021 for Lopez the reliever. His relief FIP was 4.61 with a .211 babip. Perhaps some regression. Solid WHIP in his 8.1 IP of relief. 33% of inherited runners scored. Having trouble finding league/historic averages, but Sulser led the team with a 31.4% (at least of those who qualified). I do like his 5.7 LA in 2021. Not quite Brittonesqeu (-7 career), but better than Sulser's 14+. Lopez sinker was about league average last year on the whole. It would have to be better in relief to make it worthwhile...

The SP-TBNL ramping up later may correspond with Grayson and DL (et al) hitting IP counts.

Oooh boy! People saying the right things to get my hopes up! I have to assume his pitch count/IP will be watched closely. So I wonder what his usage will be like when he's in Baltimore... If he gets some IP in AA/AAA, then does he come up as an SP and then shut him down early? Or as an RP to drag it out a bit more? Don't really care either way because it's good to see the sun rising!

Agreed. Guess it depends on how motivated they are to stay under the 2-timer CBT threshold vs. how motivated they are to win now (and this could play as much against us as for us).

Padres weren't able to land Cruz. They are obviously hunting for players to push them deep into the playoffs. I can see two potential scenarios: * Padres have a salary dump trade lined up if they sign an FA to stay under the CBT. Depends on the dollars if Santander/Mancini would work. I'd be fine with eating Myers salary for one year ($23.5M assuming we buy out the option) and getting Hassell. Hosmer has a few years at $13M if Hosmer doesn't opt out. Meh... * Padres aren't able to land an impact bat in FA, then they will want an upgrade over Myers/Hosmer. Not sure Santander or Mancini gets it done though. I wouldn't trade Mullins for a 19 y/o OFer at this point. The bird in the hand thing...

Can we agree “uh oh, Chirinos!” has to be a thing?

What do they mean by “piggy back”? Like using an opener for 1-2 IP then piggy backing with Wells (and others) as a middle for 3-4 IP?

We’re still stacking bodies and climbing the mountain. Sure we check on what it takes, but I don’t think we’re in the spot to trade away prospects at the moment. Maybe a guy like Mullins, etc. like in other threads. But that’s not what Oaktown wants.

A lot TBD for his move to the MLB. His SB success rate is lacking. His BB rate is spotty at best. His contact skills seem legit consider his Cuba stats and Cowser’s impressions. Agree that there’s still an adjustment to the velocity of MLB pitchers. Even if his SLG isn’t top tier he can add value with OBP. Hitting .280 is meaningless if you’re OBP is .300 like Hanser. OBP for a slap hitter needs to be much higher to bring value and lead to runs.

“Pick your battles wisely” fits for teams and life. Sometimes it’s wise to walk away and other times it’s wise to go all in. So it depends. Maybe they think a healthy Acuna is replacement enough? And gives them some dry powder to spend if they are in the playoff hunt at the trade deadline?

I’m not following? They just finished building a team that won the WS. So they must value winning to some degree. Just because they question the wisdom of a long term contract for an aging player (in my mind) doesn’t mean they don’t value winning. More like their view of winning is valued (measured by payroll costs) differently than yours and everyone else.

IMO, there are very few "untouchables" in the league, much less the organization, "for the right deal." Nearly every player can be had at the right price. So yes, I would be open to trade all three of them.

So, we could improve and still have a shot at #1 in 2023? Bonus!