tntoriole

The projection for Josh Bell is 5.9 million and Andrew Benintendi is 4.9 million....Trey may get more than 5....

Yes...or not. Either way, winning 55 games doesn’t require a whole lot of preparation. I can see why Pail is bored. So am I.

I will go back to my earliest teams...65-70....which will be a challenge given how good they were RF...Sam Bowens....sleepy Sam was not good at the plate or in the field OPS .495 in 1965 and hit .210 in 1966. OF/2b...Woodie Held...perhaps the worst utility guy in Os history...OPS of .578.. C Larry Haney...backup 1966-68...thank God Elrod came along. SS Bobby Floyd ...whoooo brother...he made Belanger look like Big Stick. 68-69...seemed like he always got a start when I went... P Bill Dillman...1967 was an awful downer year after 1966...Frank was out after running his head into Al Weis’s knee...Palmer was sorearmed, Wally Bunker regressed as did Dave McNally...and they brought this guy up for his only big league season.. and, again, it seemed like he pitched whenever I went. Gene Brabender...OK..he was actually a pretty good reliever for us for several years...We traded him to Seattle Pilots who moved to Milwaukee and they made him a starter and his arm went south...We got Chico Salmon in trade...but really I always include Brabender just because a 12 year old boy and his adolescent buddies always liked his name....lol.

I think Elias is going to be keeping his powder dry and waiting to see what develops in 2020-21.

That too...and being a clubhouse distraction.

Hard to field balls in the stands. But hey, Elias is getting what he wants...a 30 year old shortstop that can field the ball and has a .687 lifetime OPS.

Corey Patterson

I know Elias wants to sign another catcher. I say “Big deal, who cares.” I see little reason to sign a veteran catcher now or at any point. As a fourth catcher, for goodness sake. I certainly wouldn’t do it now....these types are literally a dime a dozen if needed at any point. And Caleb? Pass. I am not interested in old Orioles for this purpose. But really I am fine with what we have right now for 2020. But hey, go out and get Taylor Teagarden if you want.

As baseball is the example of how succeeding only 3 out of 10 times still means you are at the top of the profession...Let’s pledge to make more New Mistakes......Happy New Year to all my friends here on the OH!! “I hope that in this year to come, you make mistakes. Because if you are making mistakes, then you are making new things, trying new things, learning, living, pushing yourself, changing yourself, changing your world. You're doing things you've never done before, and more importantly, you're Doing Something. So that's my wish for you, and all of us, and my wish for myself. Make New Mistakes. Make glorious, amazing mistakes. Make mistakes nobody's ever made before. Don't freeze, don't stop, don't worry that it isn't good enough, or it isn't perfect, whatever it is: art, or love, or work or family or life. Whatever it is you're scared of doing, Do It. Make your mistakes, next year and forever.” ― Neil Gaiman

It may be adding the word “equally” to “believe” is confusing. I would suggest that the psychological construct “belief” is more complex. I will venture a bit only to use your example...Jesus in the Garden of Gethsemane, even knowing full and completely as God what was going to happen to Him, still expressed a question to the Father as to whether the cup could be removed from Him. As we homo sapiens creatures “learn” something, there is an incomprehensible neurochemical tangle going on in the cerebral cortex-from registration of a thought, to a recent memory, to retaining and retrieving this thought, to a comparision process of new experience versus older data, to modification of the previously held assumption, etc. Gradually, those initial ideas that have been run through this neurochemical process countless times become what we experience psychologically as more unchanging and then call a “belief”- and a “belief” is much more psychologically resistant to change than a thought or an idea. As a result of our excessively cortex weighted brain structure, technically, we don’t exactly “equally” believe anything because all of our thoughts are previously dated neurochemical unique events which are then modified by our collective memories and again modified by our learning processes at different times throughout our conscious existence as a human being. So, while we cannot “equally” believe any beliefs, we can certainly hold and believe two ideas simultaneously at similar or dissimilar level of intensity. It does create dissonance cognitively with associated emotional feelings, like anxiety or depression, but it does occur as part of our brain/mind process throughout our lives. Man, this is a long offseason....waiting on some baseball. Have a great New Year, everybody!

Two dissonant beliefs can be held if our mind sees them as part of a larger belief system that incorporates both ideas within it. Cognitive dissonance is the technical term for the psychological discomfort felt when we realize we are holding two inconsistent beliefs. Doublethink was the term George Orwell created in his novel, 1984, which showed the problems created in a world where contradictory beliefs are insisted upon as both being equally and simultaneously true. Hmmm, seems there are examples of that going on all around us.

A characteristic of the developed mind is the capacity to hold incongruent beliefs simultaneously.

As long as Brady is nowhere near the “showcase”, I trust that we now have some individuals who can ascertain if he can actually pitch or not without bringing their personal biases and drama along for the ride. I say he will not, but will wait and see. Chris Tillman suitcase is more like it.

I expressed an opinion. Feel free to disagree with it. Suppose it is not health issues, but that his picks over the next two years turn out to perform less than expected or mediocre? Is he responsible then? I support Elias and a reasonable rebuild time and will wait and see. But I am unwilling to say that is an open ended proposition just because we compete in a difficult division. . And I am unwilling to give him 7 years only to be “poised to compete.”

I hear you....I guess I disagree. If you are not in favor of an “open ended commitment”, then give a date when even you would agree you would support a change if he hasn’t won anything at all. My expectation as a fan is to win, so the arguments about the division being tough etc, are no different than they ever have been in the ALEast and are irrelevant to me as a fan in judging the success of a particular GM. His performance measure for fans is to WIN. The primary measure I am going to use to evaluate Elias circa 2023 and on is whether the team wins something. Period. Others are OK with giving an indefinite, based on circumstances, is he making progress, can’t say for sure, year to year kind of deal, but not me. And does anybody know how long a contract Elias was given? Can’t seem to find that anywhere.

I can’t even imagine a scenario without a playoff appearance for 7 years AND he is still the GM. Sure, I would look at it year by year, but I would likely be pretty clear with him as to what has to happen on the field at the major league level for him to continue beyond 5 years. I would be pretty dissatisfied with the losing by that point. No matter the status of the organization or how “close” we might be to winning after 7 years, I would probably call for changing horses. But then I am pretty concrete at times.

Again it is pretty easy to say that 2023 is not the definitive year and to give an open ended pass about “variables” but for me the “variable” ultimately has to be winning, so I ask again...when WOULD you expect a playoff or better team? I am certainly not willing to make an open ended commitment to any GM without winning being the expectation even though I absolutely agree with everything done to date and with the harsh rebuild plans. When might one want a change made if no playoff appearances are had?

How about “solid” and “respectable” only in 2024, 2025, or 2026? When do you hold Elias accountable for winning something? Nobody is forgetting anything...and, of course, even as bad as that was, the team did win a title, multiple playoffs and more games from 2012-2016 than any AL team. It is not unreasonable to expect the same or more at some point from our current GM and his team. I just would not give any GM a complete pass for no winning after a 5 year rebuild ....I just disagree. Starting over is not the same as simply going in a new direction or making different choices that get teams over the top. Andy took things to a certain point and Dan certainly did not have to “start over” when he took over.

Astros won 86 games in year four, and with that the wild card and the wild card game and were in the divisional series. That would be our year 2022 by this analogy. I will give Elias et al one more year for the AL East factors, blah, blah, but if they are not in the playoffs at at least wild card in 2023...next up!

Orioles sweatshirt with the old Bird logo....

It is always harder to fire dictators than GMs.

I agree with the timetable and your reasoning....however, my point was, if I own the team, if we don’t succeed by 2023, then I am getting another GM...just comes with the territory. Yes, there are all kinds of reasons that we may not win, but the GM still gets fired. Saying the AL East is hard, and that everybody else stole my best analytics ideas....that all may be true, but still....fired.

Well, we better be winning by 2023 or Elias will be the ex GM of the Orioles.

I agree and hopefully we are much further along that road than we were last offseason.

Doubt he will be in OD lineup.